---
title: "SpaceX wants $40 billion more for Nvidia chips as its default insurance hits a record 194 basis points"
description: "Default insurance on SpaceX debt hit a record this week and its 50-year bonds slipped to 85 cents, before the reported $40 billion chip financing. Whether CFO Bret Johnsen's sub-one-year payback claim on compute holds decides who absorbs the cost."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Money"
published: 2026-10-10T23:26:40.436Z
modified: 2026-10-10T23:26:40.436Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/spacex-wants-40-billion-more-for-nvidia-chips-as-its-default-insurance-hits-a-record-194-basis-points
language: en
keywords: "SpaceX, Nvidia, Credit Markets, Debt, AI Infrastructure, Elon Musk"
---

# SpaceX wants $40 billion more for Nvidia chips as its default insurance hits a record 194 basis points

> Default insurance on SpaceX debt hit a record this week and its 50-year bonds slipped to 85 cents, before the reported $40 billion chip financing. Whether CFO Bret Johnsen's sub-one-year payback claim on compute holds decides who absorbs the cost.

## The charge: a payback claim, priced in basis points

The sentence on trial belongs to CFO Bret Johnsen: "The current economics have translated into a less than one-year payback on our new capital deployments for compute" [1]. The market that carries the loss if he is wrong moved first. Five-year default insurance on [SpaceX](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/spacex) [hit a record 194 basis points on October 7](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/elon-musk-is-betting-40-billion-on-nvidia-chips-spacex-investors-arent-so-sure-as-spcx-credit-default-swaps-hit-record-high-report/ar-AA2dPsh6), up from 110 in June, and the 2056 bond yields 2.36 points over Treasuries, from 1.75 in June [3]. The 50-year paper trades near 85 cents on the dollar [1].

## The evidence: $18 billion out, $2.4 billion in

This week supplied the reason: SpaceX is in early talks to [borrow $40 billion for Nvidia chips](https://theinference.org/article/musk-bound-spacex-to-one-chip-supplier-the-bill-is-40-billion-of-debt), [roughly $10 billion of bank loans plus $30 billion of investment-grade debt](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/spacex-seeks-40-billion-debt-114434062.html), with Apollo expected to lead and Pimco among the lenders [2]. The talks are preliminary and may not close [2].

The filings explain the appetite. [Second-quarter capital spending was $18.4 billion against $2.4 billion of operating cash](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001181412) [5][8], and total debt has climbed from $13.8 billion at the end of 2024 to $39.4 billion at the end of June [8].

Interest expense ran $629 million in the quarter, up 53 percent in a year [5]. Debt, not operations, is bridging the gap.

*Chart: **Capital spending has left operating cash flow far behind** Column chart comparing SpaceX quarterly capital spending with operating cash flow across reported quarters from Q1 2025 to Q2 2026, capex climbing to 18.4 billion while operating cash flow stays near 2.4 billion*

*Quarterly capital spending vs cash from operations, US$ billions, from SEC filings. SpaceX filed no capex or operating-cash rows for Q4 2025 and no Q3 2025 row exists, so those quarters are omitted; Q2 2025 operating cash flow was negative. The AI share of Q2 2026 capex is per company disclosure. [8][5]*

## The company's exhibits: $39 billion contracted, $61 billion to go

The bull case is contractual. [Anthropic](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/anthropic) pays $1.25 billion a month through May 2029, [Alphabet](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/alphabet) [pays $920 million a month from this October](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/google-to-pay-spacex-920-million-a-month-for-xai-compute-capacity.html), and a new deal disclosed on September 10 starts December 1 at $1.11 billion a month [2][4][6].

That is more than $3.2 billion a month, which annualizes to about $39 billion; roughly $61 billion of the $100 billion run rate Johnsen has promised for year-end is still to be contracted [6]. Goldman's Eric Sheridan lifted his target to $230 from $220 on capacity and margin forecasts through 2028 [9]. [Musk's](https://theinference.org/markets/people/elon-musk) reply to talk of slower builds: "False, we are accelerating rapidly" [1].

*Chart: **Three contracts promise $3.2 billion a month, and $61 billion of the target is still unsigned** Bar chart of contracted monthly compute revenue by SpaceX customer: Anthropic at 1.25 billion dollars a month, a new deal disclosed September 10 at 1.11 billion, and Alphabet at 0.92 billion*

*Contracted monthly compute revenue by customer, US$ billions per month: Anthropic through May 2029, Alphabet from this October, and the deal disclosed on September 10 from December 1. Annualized, the three run near $39 billion against the $100 billion run rate promised for year-end. [2][4][6]*

*Chart: **The reported $40 billion chip borrowing would double the debt again** Bar chart of SpaceX total debt by quarter rising from 13.8 billion in Q4 2024 to 39.4 billion in Q2 2026, with a marked estimate bar at 79.4 billion if the reported 40 billion chip financing closes*

*Total debt at quarter end, US$ billions, from SEC filings. Debt was not reported for Q1 and Q2 2025 and no Q3 2025 row exists, so those quarters are omitted. The final bar adds the reported $40 billion chip financing, which is in early talks and has not closed. [8][2][3]*

## The prosecution: read the termination clauses

The Alphabet contract let Google walk if SpaceX failed to deliver the committed GPUs by September 30, 2026 [4]. That deadline passed ten days ago; whether SpaceX met it is unreported, and the deal is still set to bill from this month [1][4]. What is live now is the exit clause: after this year, [either party can leave on 90 days' notice](https://cryptobriefing.com/spacex-ai-computing-deal-100b-arr/), on compute deals that typically run about six months [4][6].

## The arithmetic: $18 billion due back inside twelve months

A one-year payback on last quarter's spend means roughly $18 billion of cash inside twelve months, 2.6 times what the whole company generated from operations in fiscal 2025 [1]. The AI segment lost $1.3 billion last quarter while connectivity, 55 percent of revenue, earned $1.7 billion [5][7]. FT Lex's John Foley: the market "is saying this company's getting riskier by the minute" [1].

## The cross-examination: the chips sell either way

[Nvidia](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nvidia) books this demand regardless. Apollo, expected to lead the deal, is one of six financiers Nvidia partnered with in August [to mobilize more than $500 billion for AI infrastructure](https://theinference.org/article/nvidia-prices-its-gpus-at-ten-years-wall-street-lends-against-three), and it previously financed $7 billion of chips for [xAI](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/xai) [2].

The compute risk sits on SpaceX's balance sheet, behind which shareholders now queue. Even the $100 billion cash pile is spoken for: two more quarters at the capex level Johnsen has guided means roughly $37 billion, before [up to $8.5 billion for EchoStar spectrum in 2027](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/spacex-reportedly-wants-to-borrow-40-billion-for-nvidia-chips-despite-a-100-billion-cash-pile/ar-AA2dMDrG) [5]. The chips sell either way; the debt stays home.

## The verdict watch: October's billings

The Alphabet meter starts running this month, alongside $6.7 billion of contracted cloud revenue that begins ramping now [1][4]. The next two quarters of cash flow will show whether the payback line is arithmetic or aspiration. Beneath it sits the rating: BBB today, and every number above reprices if it goes [3].

## Takeaway

A record 194 basis points of default insurance says the market is underwriting SpaceX's $40 billion chip loan before CFO Bret Johnsen's one-year payback claim meets October's Alphabet billings.

## Sources

1. [Yahoo Finance (TIKR), "SpaceX Is 'Getting Riskier by the Minute' as Its 50-Year Bonds Slip to 85 Cents", 10 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-getting-riskier-minute-50-180725034.html)
2. [Quartz via Yahoo Finance, "SpaceX seeks $40 billion in debt financing for Nvidia AI chips", 7 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/spacex-seeks-40-billion-debt-114434062.html)
3. [Benzinga via MSN, "Elon Musk is betting $40 billion on Nvidia chips as SPCX credit default swaps hit record high", 8 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/elon-musk-is-betting-40-billion-on-nvidia-chips-spacex-investors-arent-so-sure-as-spcx-credit-default-swaps-hit-record-high-report/ar-AA2dPsh6)
4. [CNBC, "Google to pay SpaceX $920 million a month for compute capacity at xAI data centers", 5 June 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/05/google-to-pay-spacex-920-million-a-month-for-xai-compute-capacity.html)
5. [The Motley Fool via MSN, "SpaceX reportedly wants to borrow $40 billion for Nvidia chips despite a $100 billion cash pile", 8 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/spacex-reportedly-wants-to-borrow-40-billion-for-nvidia-chips-despite-a-100-billion-cash-pile/ar-AA2dMDrG)
6. [Crypto Briefing, "SpaceX signs new AI computing deal as CFO confirms $100B annual recurring revenue on track", 11 September 2026](https://cryptobriefing.com/spacex-ai-computing-deal-100b-arr/)
7. [TheStreet via Yahoo Finance, "AT&T CEO holds firm stance on Elon Musk's SpaceX phone strategy", 10 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/t-ceo-holds-firm-stance-210300319.html)
8. [SpaceX quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 10 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001181412)
9. [GuruFocus via Yahoo Finance, "SpaceX Stock Rises Again. Goldman Sachs Hikes Price Target on AI Surge", 6 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-stock-rises-again-goldman-182636389.html)


---

SpaceX wants $40 billion more for Nvidia chips as its default insurance hits a record 194 basis points — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/spacex-wants-40-billion-more-for-nvidia-chips-as-its-default-insurance-hits-a-record-194-basis-points