--- title: "SUMCO says it cannot meet 300mm wafer demand, yet guides to a ¥3.3 billion operating loss" description: "AI demand has the Tokyo-listed wafer maker \"becoming unable to meet requested volumes\" of 300mm wafers, yet it guides to a ¥3.3 billion full-year operating loss and ¥1.0 billion of December-quarter operating profit. Whether wafer prices break through long-term contracts is now the whole question for the stock." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Chips" published: 2026-11-12T15:11:28.435Z modified: 2026-11-12T15:11:28.435Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/sumco-says-it-cannot-meet-300mm-wafer-demand-yet-guides-to-a-3-3-billion-operating-loss language: en keywords: "Sumco, Silicon Wafers, Semiconductors, Japan, Earnings" --- # SUMCO says it cannot meet 300mm wafer demand, yet guides to a ¥3.3 billion operating loss > AI demand has the Tokyo-listed wafer maker "becoming unable to meet requested volumes" of 300mm wafers, yet it guides to a ¥3.3 billion full-year operating loss and ¥1.0 billion of December-quarter operating profit. Whether wafer prices break through long-term contracts is now the whole question for the stock. SUMCO, one of the world's largest silicon wafer makers, put out [nine-month results](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/sumco-corporation-reports-earnings-results-for-the-nine-months-ended-september-30-2026-ce785ed8d88cf123) on November 11 that point in opposite directions [1][2]. Sales for January to September rose ¥28.1 billion year on year to ¥332.5 billion [1][2], and operating results swung from a ¥5.8 billion profit to a ¥4.3 billion loss [1]. The July to September quarter alone made ¥2.0 billion of operating profit on ¥117.5 billion of sales, ahead of the company's own break-even forecast [1]. For the full year SUMCO guides to sales of ¥439.5 billion, up 7.3%, an operating loss of ¥3.3 billion and a net loss of ¥3.4 billion [1]. The net figure beats the ¥13.3 billion loss 15 analysts expected [1], helped by a ¥13.6 billion one-off gain from selling part of its Taiwanese unit Formosa Sumco Technology [1]. The shares closed up 3.9% at ¥2,170 [2]. ## Shipments are up 13.4% and SUMCO still cannot fill demand Demand is not in doubt. SEMI, the chip industry association, [counted worldwide wafer shipments up 13.4% year on year in the third quarter](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/worldwide-silicon-wafer-shipments-increase-150000062.html) [3], and the committee that compiles the data is chaired by SUMCO sales chief Masatsugu Miura [3]. SUMCO says AI-related demand has it "becoming unable to meet requested volumes" of 300mm wafers [1]. ## ¥131.4 billion of depreciation absorbs the boom Almost none of that reaches profit. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization were ¥35.0 billion in the quarter against ¥33.0 billion of depreciation, leaving ¥2.0 billion [1]. The October to December guidance repeats the shape: ¥32.1 billion of EBITDA, ¥31.1 billion of depreciation, ¥1.0 billion of operating profit on ¥107.0 billion of sales [1]. On that base, a 1% move in selling prices is worth about ¥1.07 billion, more than the whole quarter's guided profit [1]. *Chart: **Depreciation consumes nearly all of SUMCO's EBITDA** Column chart of SUMCO EBITDA, depreciation and operating profit for the September and December quarters of 2026* *SUMCO consolidated figures, ¥ billions; Oct-Dec is company guidance. Source: XenoSpectrum summary of SUMCO's November 11, 2026, release. [1]* *Chart: **One percent of price is worth SUMCO's entire guided Q4 operating profit** Bar chart comparing the operating profit effect of a 1% wafer price rise, SUMCO's guided Q4 operating profit, and a one-yen currency move* *Effect on SUMCO's quarterly operating profit, ¥ billions. Price effect is a calculation on the ¥107.0 billion Q4 sales base; the yen effect is the company's ¥1.2 billion annual sensitivity per ¥1, divided by four. Source: XenoSpectrum, November 12, 2026. [1]* ## Prices are moving everywhere except SUMCO's contracts Rival Shin-Etsu Chemical made ¥212.1 billion of operating profit in the same July to September quarter, about a hundred times SUMCO's, and has begun raising prices, but only on volumes beyond its long-term agreements, which run to the end of 2027 at the earliest [1][4]. Taiwan's three biggest wafer makers [confirmed increases of at least 10% in August](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/silicon-wafer-prices-break-three-year-freeze-ai-fills-every-fab-and-foundries-are-next/ar-AA2aPC8o), ending a three-year pricing freeze [5]. Germany's [Siltronic](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/siltronic) lifted its full-year outlook on AI-driven demand, though price and mix had minimal impact on its beat [6][7]. ## The stock is up 78% before any price rise SUMCO's long-term contract prices were "protected" last quarter [1], and it [cut nine-month capital spending to ¥29.7 billion from ¥69.3 billion](https://xenospectrum.com/en/sumco-q3-2026-price-sensitivity/) because added capacity "does not make economic sense at current selling prices" [1]. The stock has risen 78% over the past year [8], and 16 analysts still rate it OUTPERFORM with an average target of ¥3,613.12, a 73% spread over the ¥2,089 close [2]. ![A long, low white factory building with a SUMCO sign on it, seen across fields with houses in front](https://storage.googleapis.com/theinference-public/img/9923b705bdcb82f6.jpg) *SUMCO's Kyushu facility at Imari in Saga prefecture, Japan. SUMCO cut nine-month capital spending to ¥29.7 billion from ¥69.3 billion, saying added capacity "does not make economic sense at current selling prices". (Peka / CC BY-SA 4.0)* ## The January to March forecast settles it No price increase has been announced [1]. SUMCO guides one quarter at a time [1], so the January to March forecast, due with the full-year results early next year, settles it: guidance above ¥1.0 billion without a price rise means mix, utilization and cost cuts are carrying the number. Formosa Sumco left the consolidated accounts on September 30, blurring the comparison [1]. A shortage SUMCO expects to tighten further stops at the contract line [1]. ## Takeaway SUMCO says AI demand has it "becoming unable to meet requested volumes" of 300mm wafers, and the business still only breaks even: ¥31.1 billion of December-quarter depreciation leaves ¥1.0 billion of guided operating profit. A 1% move in wafer prices is worth more than that whole quarter, so whether long-term contract prices break is the entire question for a stock up 78% in a year. ## Sources 1. [XenoSpectrum, "SUMCO Forecasts ¥3.3 Billion Operating Loss for 2026 Despite Tight 300mm Wafer Supply," 12 November 2026](https://xenospectrum.com/en/sumco-q3-2026-price-sensitivity/) 2. [MarketScreener / S&P Capital IQ, "Sumco Corporation Reports Earnings Results for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2026," 11 November 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/sumco-corporation-reports-earnings-results-for-the-nine-months-ended-september-30-2026-ce785ed8d88cf123) 3. [SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group via CNW Group / Yahoo Finance, "Worldwide Silicon Wafer Shipments Increase 13.4% Year-on-Year in Q3 2026, SEMI Reports," 4 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/worldwide-silicon-wafer-shipments-increase-150000062.html) 4. [Shoshi no tane (note.com), "Shin-Etsu Chemical's interim results: 27% profit increase but forecast remains unchanged," 5 November 2026 (Japanese)](https://note.com/shoshi_no_tane/n/nfd84584f69bf) 5. [Tech Times via MSN, "Silicon wafer prices break three-year freeze: AI fills every fab and foundries are next," 24 August 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/silicon-wafer-prices-break-three-year-freeze-ai-fills-every-fab-and-foundries-are-next/ar-AA2aPC8o) 6. [dpa-AFX via MarketScreener, "Siltronic raises full-year outlook as AI-driven demand picks up," 4 November 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/siltronic-raises-full-year-outlook-as-ai-driven-demand-picks-up-ce785fded08af525) 7. [Investing.com via Yahoo Finance, "Siltronic raises full-year guidance after Q3 beat," 3 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/siltronic-raises-full-guidance-q3-071329816.html) 8. [Simply Wall St via Yahoo Finance, "Where Does Sumco (TSE:3436) Value Sit After A 78% Run?" 11 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/where-does-sumco-tse-3436-141348871.html) --- SUMCO says it cannot meet 300mm wafer demand, yet guides to a ¥3.3 billion operating loss — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/sumco-says-it-cannot-meet-300mm-wafer-demand-yet-guides-to-a-3-3-billion-operating-loss