---
title: "TD Cowen and Wells Fargo cut Microchip to $75 and $80; the 26-analyst consensus still holds $107"
description: "TD Cowen and Wells Fargo marked Microchip Technology down to its own share price in one session on October 19, 2026, after a month of AI data-center launches that attached no revenue figure to any of them. The September quarter, reported on November 5, 2026, is where the argument gets numbers."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Markets"
published: 2026-10-21T14:13:49.278Z
modified: 2026-10-21T14:13:49.278Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/td-cowen-and-wells-fargo-cut-microchip-to-75-and-80-the-26-analyst-consensus-still-holds-107
language: en
keywords: "Markets, Semiconductors, Analyst Ratings, AI Data Centers, Microchip Technology"
---

# TD Cowen and Wells Fargo cut Microchip to $75 and $80; the 26-analyst consensus still holds $107

> TD Cowen and Wells Fargo marked Microchip Technology down to its own share price in one session on October 19, 2026, after a month of AI data-center launches that attached no revenue figure to any of them. The September quarter, reported on November 5, 2026, is where the argument gets numbers.

Two brokerages cut their price targets on [Microchip Technology](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/microchip-technology) (Nasdaq: MCHP) down to the share price in a single session on October 19, 2026 [1][2]. The stock sits just above $74, where [TD Cowen now sees $75](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/td-cowen-adjusts-price-target-on-microchip-technology-to-75-from-90-ce785cdbdb80f62c) and [Wells Fargo $80](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/wells-fargo-adjusts-price-target-on-microchip-technology-to-80-from-88-ce785cdbd881ff22) [1][2].

The 26-analyst consensus still sits above $107, an average the two houses that just marked the stock down no longer support [1]. Nothing in Microchip's October announcements can settle that disagreement, because none of it carries a dollar. The September quarter, [reported after the close on November 5, 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/nebenwerte/microchip-technology-sets-november-5-results-date-for-microchip-technology-stock/70331398), is the first thing that can [3].

*Chart: **Two houses cut to the price; the street average held above $107** Bar chart of Microchip price targets: street average $107.24, Wells Fargo $80, TD Cowen $75, with a reference line at the $74.46 share price*

*Price targets for Microchip Technology, USD, October 19 to 20, 2026, against the share price. Sources: MarketScreener / MT Newswires [1][2]. [1][2]*

## The engineering is real and none of it has a price tag

[The October 5, 2026, reference design with Navitas](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/navitas-and-microchip-collaborate-to-deliver-800v-reference-design-for-next-generation-ai-data-centers-1036596923), a gallium-nitride power-chip maker, is genuine work: Microchip's dsPIC33AK digital control chips drive Navitas transistors to take 800-volt rack power straight down to the six volts a GPU board wants, collapsing two conversion stages into one [4]. At the Open Compute Project summit, the data-center standards body where it was exhibited, the power layer moved on paper only. [The power-rack specification landed on October 8, 2026](https://note.com/iqoys/n/nf6eb1749d020), while products, this design among them, stayed at the exhibit stage with no production date [5].

The month kept the same shape: [a PCIe Gen 6 switch and NVMe storage refresh for servers](https://www.semiconductor-digest.com/microchip-expands-ai-data-center-portfolio-with-pcie-6-0-switch-and-storage-upgrades/) [6], [a radiation-tolerant power converter for satellites](https://www.semiconductor-today.com/news_items/2026/oct/microchip-151026.shtml) [7], and VORAGO, an Austin, Texas radiation-hardened chipmaker [bought on undisclosed terms](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/microchip-technology-acquires-vorago-technologies-130000027.html) Microchip itself calls immaterial [8]. The partners are less shy. Navitas, which spent October 20 on an [investor call titled Breaking the AI infrastructure Power Wall](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/transcript-navitas-semiconductor-corporation-special-call-ce785cd8da8ef32c), expects AI infrastructure to pass a third of its sales this year [9][10]. Peer chipmaker [STMicroelectronics](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/stmicroelectronics) puts its data-center revenue above $1 billion [10]. Microchip attached no figure to any launch.

## Both camps get their number on November 5

[UBS's October 16, 2026, semiconductor survey](https://www.techflowpost.com/en-US/article/34680), which we ran for [Analog Devices](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/analog-devices), expects Microchip's September quarter to grow 8.5% sequentially against a 4.3% seasonal norm; that is the bull case in one line [11]. The bear case sits in the same note: market microcontroller prices fell 7% last quarter, Microchip's own prices fell in every category, and inventory still covers 175 days of sales [11].

Half of Microchip's revenue is microcontrollers [1], the stock trades near 101 times trailing earnings [3], and the shares have slid from the low $80s on [the morning of the Navitas launch](https://theinference.org/article/microchip-joins-the-ai-rack-power-fight-just-as-its-pricing-power-comes-back) to the mid-$70s [12][1].

*Chart: **Revenue has grown five straight quarters off the cycle bottom** Line chart of Microchip quarterly revenue from Q3 2023 to Q2 2026, falling from $2.25B to $0.97B then recovering to $1.49B*

*Microchip Technology quarterly revenue, calendar quarters, USD billions, from its SEC filings [13]. The September quarter, due November 5, 2026, is not yet reported. [13]*

## The reward arrives when sockets ship

[Nvidia](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nvidia) has framed one-megawatt 800-volt racks as a 2027 event, and Microchip's controllers are inside the design that leads there [5][4]. Revenue arrives when sockets ship, quarters after the showcase, and whoever turns the reference board into production racks has earned the reward. Until then the AI story is a dated promise, and the date is November 5 [4]. Navitas, the partner, reports its own quarter two days earlier [4].

## Takeaway

TD Cowen and Wells Fargo cut Microchip to $75 and $80 while the 26-analyst consensus holds $107, and October's AI data-center launches carry no revenue to settle it; the September quarter on November 5 is the first number that can.

## Sources

1. [MarketScreener / MT Newswires, Wells Fargo Adjusts Price Target on Microchip Technology to $80 From $88, 19 October 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/wells-fargo-adjusts-price-target-on-microchip-technology-to-80-from-88-ce785cdbd881ff22)
2. [MarketScreener / MT Newswires, TD Cowen Adjusts Price Target on Microchip Technology to $75 From $90, 19 October 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/td-cowen-adjusts-price-target-on-microchip-technology-to-75-from-90-ce785cdbdb80f62c)
3. [ad-hoc-news.de, Microchip Technology sets November 5 results date for Microchip Technology stock, 19 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/nebenwerte/microchip-technology-sets-november-5-results-date-for-microchip-technology-stock/70331398)
4. [GlobeNewswire via Markets Insider, Navitas and Microchip Collaborate to Deliver 800V Reference Design for Next-Generation AI Data Centers, 5 October 2026](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/navitas-and-microchip-collaborate-to-deliver-800v-reference-design-for-next-generation-ai-data-centers-1036596923)
5. [Ikos, note.com, Categorizing OCP 2026: of the 800V DC, liquid cooling and CPO announcements, which have started shipping?, 16 October 2026](https://note.com/iqoys/n/nf6eb1749d020)
6. [Semiconductor Digest, Microchip Expands AI Data Center Portfolio with PCIe 6.0 Switch and Storage Upgrades, 12 October 2026](https://www.semiconductor-digest.com/microchip-expands-ai-data-center-portfolio-with-pcie-6-0-switch-and-storage-upgrades/)
7. [Semiconductor Today, Microchip adds radiation-tolerant GaN point-of-load converter to space power portfolio, 15 October 2026](https://www.semiconductor-today.com/news_items/2026/oct/microchip-151026.shtml)
8. [GlobeNewswire via Yahoo Finance, Microchip Technology Acquires VORAGO Technologies, 9 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/microchip-technology-acquires-vorago-technologies-130000027.html)
9. [MarketScreener / S&P Capital IQ, Transcript: Navitas Semiconductor Corporation - Special Call, 20 October 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/transcript-navitas-semiconductor-corporation-special-call-ce785cd8da8ef32c)
10. [Zacks via Yahoo Finance, Can NVTS' Alliance With Microchip Accelerate Its AI Power Growth?, 12 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/nvts-alliance-microchip-accelerate-ai-142500644.html)
11. [TechFlow / Chaoxiang Research, UBS Research Analysis: Analog Chip Cycle Continues Upward, Inventory Falls to Low Levels, 19 October 2026](https://www.techflowpost.com/en-US/article/34680)
12. [RTTNews, Navitas Semiconductor, Microchip Technology Team On 800V DC Power Design For AI Data Centers, 5 October 2026](https://www.rttnews.com/3696514/navitas-semiconductor-microchip-technology-team-on-800v-dc-power-design-for-ai-data-centers.aspx)
13. [Microchip Technology, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 21 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000827054)


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TD Cowen and Wells Fargo cut Microchip to $75 and $80; the 26-analyst consensus still holds $107 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/td-cowen-and-wells-fargo-cut-microchip-to-75-and-80-the-26-analyst-consensus-still-holds-107