---
title: "Tesla's bearish ratings hit an 11-year low as Barclays lifts its target to $450 and the stock jumps 5.2%"
description: "Bearish ratings on Tesla just hit an 11-year low as BNP Paribas, CLSA and Barclays folded within one week, and the stock jumped 5.2% to $391.62. The upgrades price a SpaceX merger that has no agreed terms; the car business underneath just printed a 43% profit decline."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Robotics & Defense"
published: 2026-10-27T14:26:03.212Z
modified: 2026-10-27T14:26:03.212Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/tesla-s-bearish-ratings-hit-an-11-year-low-as-barclays-lifts-its-target-to-450-and-the-stock-jumps-5-2
language: en
keywords: "Tesla, SpaceX, Analyst Ratings, Mergers, Stock Moves, Elon Musk"
---

# Tesla's bearish ratings hit an 11-year low as Barclays lifts its target to $450 and the stock jumps 5.2%

> Bearish ratings on Tesla just hit an 11-year low as BNP Paribas, CLSA and Barclays folded within one week, and the stock jumped 5.2% to $391.62. The upgrades price a SpaceX merger that has no agreed terms; the car business underneath just printed a 43% profit decline.

## Five sell ratings left on a $1.5 trillion stock

On October 26, [bearish calls on Tesla hit their lowest share in more than 11 years](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-26/tesla-spacex-merger-hopes-send-bearish-ratings-to-11-year-low) [1]. Five of 60 analysts still rate the stock a sell, down from 15 of 71 in January [2]. That day [Barclays](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/barclays) lifted [Tesla](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/tesla) to Overweight from Equal Weight, raised its target to $450 from $370, and the shares closed up 5.2% at $391.62 [3][1].

## One week from blessing to surrender

The clock started October 20, on the [earnings call of SpaceX](https://www.theverge.com/science/1014984/spacex-tesla-merger-elon-musk-special-committees), the rocket and AI company Musk also runs [4]. He called a merger "a good idea," said the special committees of the two boards had agreed no terms, and warned the deal needs "a 50 percent vote of all shares," in his words "quite a high hurdle" [4].

Two days later [BNP Paribas](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/bnp-paribas) went from Underperform to Neutral, its $420 target up from $266 on what its analyst said reflects the deal odds "exclusively"; CLSA moved from Underperform to Hold the same day [6][7][2]. Barclays followed Monday: the combination is "heavily expected" at "some premium" [3]. Mizuho went to $460 [8]. The Inference has covered the deal's [proxy math](https://theinference.org/article/tesla-s-proxy-paves-a-spacex-merger-that-pays-musk-on-deal-price-alone) and its [$1.53 billion cash beat](https://theinference.org/article/tesla-s-1-53-billion-cash-beat-was-unpaid-bills-and-it-lands-in-the-3-5-trillion-spacex-merger-talks); new this week is the capitulation itself [8].

## The ratings rose while the income statement sank

What the folded bears stopped grading: [third-quarter net income of $787 million](https://electrek.co/2026/10/21/tesla-tsla-q3-2026-financial-results/), down 43% year over year, on flat revenue of $28.05 billion, with operating expenses up 39% [9]. The stock trades at 12.3 times trailing sales against 3.2 for the S&P 500, and it lost 12.8% over twelve months while the index returned 15.3% [10]. Fortune pegs its price-to-earnings ratio at 633 [5].

*Chart: **New targets cleared the stock by $30 to $70 in one week** Column chart comparing Tesla's closing share price of $391.62 with analyst price targets after the upgrades: BNP Paribas $420 from $266, Barclays $450 from $370, Mizuho $460*

*Tesla's closing price on October 26 and analysts' 12-month price targets before and after this week's upgrades, in US dollars. Sources: CNBC, Fintel via MSN, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg. [3][6][8][1]*

*Chart: **Tesla's quarterly profit fell year over year in eight of the last ten quarters** Line chart of Tesla quarterly GAAP net income from Q2 2024 to Q3 2026, falling from $2.17 billion in Q3 2024 to $0.79 billion in Q3 2026, with lower peaks each year*

*Quarterly GAAP net income in USD billions as reported in Tesla's SEC filings, retrieved October 27, 2026. [12]*

## Who pays depends on which shareholders you ask

On the bill, the camps split. [J.P. Morgan](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/jpmorgan-chase) puts a typical tech premium at 30 to 35%; at 30%, a $2.14 trillion [SpaceX](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/spacex) would issue stock equal to 92% of its current count for the $1.52 trillion Tesla, cutting SpaceX holders from all of their fast-rising earnings to just over half [5]. Fortune's verdict: Tesla owners win, and "the losers will be SpaceX's shareholders" [5].

[The precedent is 2016](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/hiltzik-gain-merger-musks-spacex-100000315.html): SolarCity, the last Musk-to-Musk merger, was steered by directors who sat on both boards, and Tesla fell more than 10% the next day [11]. The asset on offer bleeds already: SpaceX's AI unit lost $3.3 billion on $10.9 billion of nine-month sales while the company poured $40 billion into AI capital projects [11][5]. Musk owns about 20% of Tesla; the vote needs more than half of all shares [11].

## The tell is the exchange ratio

Nothing is scheduled: no terms, no date, no proxy. Musk himself called a done deal "an exaggeration" [2]. The fork turns on the exchange ratio the committees publish, then on a shareholder vote Musk's stake cannot carry alone [4][11]. Until a ratio exists, the market trades a term sheet nobody has seen. The last bear did not turn bullish on the cars; he stopped grading them.

## Takeaway

The last bears folded on Tesla within one week, but every new target prices a merger whose terms nobody has agreed while the car business printed a 43% profit decline.

## Sources

1. [Bloomberg, Tesla-SpaceX Merger Hopes Send Bearish Ratings to 11-Year Low, 26 October 2026](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-26/tesla-spacex-merger-hopes-send-bearish-ratings-to-11-year-low)
2. [The Next Web, Tesla's sell ratings hit an 11-year low as SpaceX merger hopes grow, 26 October 2026](https://thenextweb.com/news/tesla-sell-ratings-11-year-low-spacex-merger)
3. [CNBC, Buy Tesla ahead of potential SpaceX merger, says Barclays, 26 October 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/26/tesla-spacex-merger-barclays.html)
4. [The Verge, Tesla and SpaceX are discussing a possible merger, Musk says, 20 October 2026](https://www.theverge.com/science/1014984/spacex-tesla-merger-elon-musk-special-committees)
5. [Fortune via MSN, Elon Musk's dream merger is a nightmare for SpaceX shareholders, 22 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/elon-musk-s-dream-merger-is-a-nightmare-for-spacex-shareholders/ar-AA2fNpke)
6. [Fintel via MSN, BNP Paribas upgrades Tesla to neutral from underperform, 26 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/bnp-paribas-upgrades-tesla-to-neutral-from-underperform/ar-AA2g7WU3)
7. [Fintel via MSN, CLSA upgrades Tesla to hold from underperform, 27 October 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/top-stocks/clsa-upgrades-tesla-to-hold-from-underperform/ar-AA2g9pOp)
8. [Yahoo Finance, Barclays Upgrades Tesla Stock Citing SpaceX Merger Potential And Robotaxi Growth, 27 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/barclays-upgrades-tesla-stock-citing-110224719.html)
9. [Electrek, Tesla (TSLA) releases Q3 2026 financial results: margins rebound, profit still falls, 21 October 2026](https://electrek.co/2026/10/21/tesla-tsla-q3-2026-financial-results/)
10. [Yahoo Finance (Trefis), Why Did Tesla Stock Jump?, 27 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-did-tesla-stock-jump-102646756.html)
11. [Los Angeles Times via Yahoo Finance, Hiltzik: Who would gain from a merger of Musk's SpaceX and Musk's Tesla? Take a wild guess, 27 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/hiltzik-gain-merger-musks-spacex-100000315.html)
12. [Tesla quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 27 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001318605)


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Tesla's bearish ratings hit an 11-year low as Barclays lifts its target to $450 and the stock jumps 5.2% — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/tesla-s-bearish-ratings-hit-an-11-year-low-as-barclays-lifts-its-target-to-450-and-the-stock-jumps-5-2