--- title: "华尔街据以放贷的OpenAI 700亿美元营收,如今缩水至500亿" description: "OpenAI告诉投资者,其年化营收正接近500亿美元,而非此前市场沿用的约700亿美元。差额主要源于统计口径;按更大数字层层垒起的债务,却是实打实的。" publisher: "The Inference" section: "Money" published: 2026-10-08T20:32:40.587Z modified: 2026-10-08T20:32:40.587Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/the-70-billion-openai-number-wall-street-lent-against-is-now-50-billion/zh-CN language: zh-CN keywords: "OpenAI, Oracle, Debt, Compute, Markets" --- # 华尔街据以放贷的OpenAI 700亿美元营收,如今缩水至500亿 > OpenAI告诉投资者,其年化营收正接近500亿美元,而非此前市场沿用的约700亿美元。差额主要源于统计口径;按更大数字层层垒起的债务,却是实打实的。 ## OpenAI“缩水”,市场几分钟内完成重定价 周四,AI债务高楼脚下的营收基数,挨了实打实的第一刀。[OpenAI](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/openai)[告诉投资者,截至9月底,其年化营收已接近500亿美元](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/openai-revenue-20b-below-previous-181839907.html)[1],而非上月下旬以来市面上流传的约700亿美元[2]。当天,[甲骨文](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/oracle)股价下跌5.26%,收于136.01美元,年内累计跌近30%[3];[CoreWeave](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/coreweave)下跌6.5%[4],[博通](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/broadcom)下跌4.1%,[英伟达](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nvidia)下跌3%[5]。 这200亿美元并未消失。较大的那个数字,把与[微软](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/microsoft)、[亚马逊](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/amazon)等合作伙伴分享的收入也算了进去;为便于与[Anthropic](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/anthropic)比较,投资者此前已把OpenAI的营收调至毛额口径[2][1]。若按收入实际产生之处入账,其中一部分从来就不属于OpenAI。 ## 数字落地,砸中甲骨文 甲骨文[为OpenAI建设数据中心](https://theinference.org/article/a-wisconsin-docket-now-sets-the-clock-on-oracle-s-300-billion-openai-backlog),[上季度合同储备(backlog)达6640亿美元](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/article/oracle-stock-falls-on-more-debt-to-fund-ai-chip-buying-openai-revenue-disclosure-181653494.html)[3]。6月至8月当季,资本开支高达285亿美元,是两年前23亿美元的12倍还多[3][9]。总债务已从2022财年的759亿美元攀升至8月的1691亿美元,甲骨文如今位列美国公司债市场第五大借款人[4][3]。 *Chart: **甲骨文季度资本开支已是两年前的12倍以上** 折线图:甲骨文季度资本开支走势,2023年11月至2026年8月,由11亿美元升至285亿美元* *各季度资本开支(单位:十亿美元),统计区间为截至2023年11月至2026年8月的各日历季度(对应甲骨文2024财年第二财季至2027财年第一财季)。资料来源:甲骨文向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交的文件。 [9]* ## 利润率固定,成本上涨 按SemiAnalysis创始人迪伦·帕特尔(Dylan Patel)的说法,这轮挤压是合同使然:甲骨文签订大额AI合同时,利润率基本已经锁定,因此对手们眼下正在收获的[GPU租金上涨](https://theinference.org/article/the-gpu-resale-market-is-now-a-leading-indicator-its-flashing),与甲骨文无缘 [4]。CoreWeave已于7月提价25%,此后又提价约10%;合同期最短的[Nebius](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nebius),重新定价的速度还要更快 [4]。按帕特尔的解读,这轮涨价的账单落在长约云厂商头上,甲骨文和CoreWeave均在此列;持短约的Nebius则把这笔意外之财收入囊中 [4]。 甲骨文的毛利率已从2022财年的79.1%降至截至8月季度的60% [4][9]。为保住工期,甲骨文正[用卡车向新墨西哥州的"木星计划"(Project Jupiter)运送压缩天然气](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4651487-oracle-uses-trucked-natural-gas-to-keep-ai-data-centers-on-track-report) [6];与该项目挂钩的约180亿美元贷款,报价为每1美元面值89美分至91美分,而标普对甲骨文的评级,也仍只比垃圾级高出一档 [11]。 *Chart: **甲骨文毛利率不到三年下滑11个百分点** 折线图:甲骨文季度毛利率走势,从2023年末的约71%降至2026年8月季度的60%* *毛利率(占营收百分比),统计区间为截至2023年11月至2026年8月的各日历季度(对应甲骨文2024财年第二财季至2027财年第一财季)。资料来源:甲骨文,季度数据取自其向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交的文件。 [9]* ## 锁定是把双刃剑 倘若GPU价格掉头向下,当初让Nebius得以向上调价的短约,同样会把它向下带,甲骨文的合同则维持不变 [4]。[这笔合同储备是写进合同的真金白银](https://theinference.org/article/oracle-s-two-ledgers-a-27-billion-subpoena-file-and-a-664-billion-backlog):履约义务达6640亿美元,一年之内增加2090亿美元;其中750亿美元的大额AI合同,附带客户预付款或由客户自供芯片 [11]。云基础设施收入上季度增长121%,至74亿美元 [11]。 ## 放贷方如今如何定价 阿波罗(Apollo)与[高盛](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs)正在洽谈,拟通过一家独立公司为甲骨文的下一批芯片提供资金,甲骨文希望这家公司年内落地 [3];博通则在[为OpenAI的定制芯片安排超过500亿美元融资](https://www.wsj.com/tech/oracle-broadcom-and-spacex-seek-blockbuster-debt-deals-to-pay-for-ai-chips-848e8032) [1][10]。据报道,OpenAI正寻求逾300亿美元融资,估值1.4万亿美元——约为新营收数字的28倍,按旧数字计算则是20倍 [1]。 摩根大通的[41只AI股票篮子,目前已占标普500指数市值的49%](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/da73fa61-15a9-387f-9d75-908abf08afa2/openai-annualized-revenue-20.html) [7]。这条链条的抵押品,正是OpenAI自行披露的数字;[本周的另一场发布](https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/08/openais-math-solutions-arent-meeting-the-fields-standards-yet/)再次暴露了这种习惯:719个数学证明中,只有10个附带了模型的思维链,外部数学家还记录了文字证明与Lean形式化代码之间的出入 [8]。如今,这条链条上的每家放贷方,承销的都是OpenAI自己都不计入的数字。 ## Takeaway OpenAI年化营收“缩水”的200亿美元,多半是总额法与净额法的记账口径之差;而按更大数字承销的债务是实打实的,其中甲骨文一家的债务就达1691亿美元。 ## Sources 1. [Benzinga via Yahoo Finance, OpenAI Revenue $20B Below Previous Reports, ORCL, NVDA Tumble, 8 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/openai-revenue-20b-below-previous-181839907.html) 2. [Seeking Alpha, Oracle, Microsoft shares decline as OpenAI's ARR is called into question, 8 October 2026](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4651482-oracle-microsoft-shares-decline-as-openais-arr-called-into-question) 3. [Yahoo Finance, Oracle stock falls on more debt to fund AI chip buying, OpenAI revenue disclosure, 8 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/article/oracle-stock-falls-on-more-debt-to-fund-ai-chip-buying-openai-revenue-disclosure-181653494.html) 4. [The Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance, Bad Timing: Oracle Locked in Fixed Margin Cloud Deals Just Before GPU Prices Soared, 8 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/bad-timing-oracle-locked-fixed-175327293.html) 5. [Investor's Business Daily via Yahoo Finance, OpenAI Annualized Revenue $20 Billion Short, Says Report. AI Stocks Fall., 8 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/da73fa61-15a9-387f-9d75-908abf08afa2/openai-annualized-revenue-20.html) 6. [Seeking Alpha, Oracle uses trucked natural gas to keep AI data centers on track: report, 8 October 2026](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4651487-oracle-uses-trucked-natural-gas-to-keep-ai-data-centers-on-track-report) 7. [Seeking Alpha, JPMorgan's AI basket represents 49% of the S&P 500, 8 October 2026](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4651484-jpmorgans-ai-basket-represents-49-of-the-sp-500) 8. [TechCrunch, OpenAI's math solutions aren't meeting the field's standards yet, 8 October 2026](https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/08/openais-math-solutions-arent-meeting-the-fields-standards-yet/) 9. [Oracle, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 8 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001341439) 10. [The Wall Street Journal, Oracle, Broadcom and SpaceX Seek Blockbuster Debt Deals to Pay for AI Chips, 7 October 2026](https://www.wsj.com/tech/oracle-broadcom-and-spacex-seek-blockbuster-debt-deals-to-pay-for-ai-chips-848e8032) 11. [Insider Monkey via Yahoo Finance, Oracle's AI Expansion Faces a New Test as Data Center Costs Rise, 27 September 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/oracle-ai-expansion-faces-test-202208976.html) --- 华尔街据以放贷的OpenAI 700亿美元营收,如今缩水至500亿 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/the-70-billion-openai-number-wall-street-lent-against-is-now-50-billion/zh-CN