--- title: "美国陆军买下首套量产激光武器:航空环境斩获4.648亿美元,利润归属仍存变数" description: "美国陆军9月2日签署的4.648亿美元合同,使航空环境的LOCUST X3成为美国历史上首套签订生产合同的高能激光系统。同样的条款向竞争对手供应商开放12个子系统接口,并将新改型决策排定在2031年;而分析师平均目标价较121.79美元的收盘价高出77%。" publisher: "The Inference" section: "Hardware" published: 2026-10-17T16:12:38.185Z modified: 2026-10-17T16:12:38.185Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/the-army-s-first-production-laser-pays-aerovironment-464-8-million-and-keeps-the-profit-contestable/zh-CN language: zh-CN keywords: "AeroVironment, Defense, Directed Energy, Army, Defense Stocks" --- # 美国陆军买下首套量产激光武器:航空环境斩获4.648亿美元,利润归属仍存变数 > 美国陆军9月2日签署的4.648亿美元合同,使航空环境的LOCUST X3成为美国历史上首套签订生产合同的高能激光系统。同样的条款向竞争对手供应商开放12个子系统接口,并将新改型决策排定在2031年;而分析师平均目标价较121.79美元的收盘价高出77%。 美国陆军终于买下了一套激光武器,但把赢家的垄断排除在这次采购之外。2026年9月2日,陆军与[航空环境公司](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/aerovironment)(AeroVironment,纳斯达克代码:AVAV)签署[4.648亿美元协议](https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20260818921666/avs-locust-selected-for-nearly-500-million-army-counter-uas-contract-for-enduring-high-energy-laser-e-hel-program),用于"持久高能激光"项目(Enduring High Energy Laser,简称E-HEL)。该项目30千瓦的LOCUST X3由此成为美国历史上首套签订生产合同的高能激光武器系统[1][2]。 本周在华盛顿举行的美国陆军协会(AUSA)年会上,陆军[将条款和盘托出](https://aviationweek.com/defense/missile-defense-weapons/us-army-defines-goals-e-hel-upgrade-plan):[12个子系统类别全面开放接口](https://theinference.org/article/aerovironment-keeps-the-464-8-million-army-laser-while-the-army-opens-its-parts-to-rival-bidders),用意正是引入陆军招标文件所称的"系统集成商航空环境以外的第三方供应商"[3]。这种开放是刻意安排,它决定了项目成熟之后利润归谁。 ## 这份订单赢自实战,而非实验室 定向能武器在实验室与车辆调配场之间蹉跎了50年[2]。上一代50千瓦方案安装在[斯特赖克](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/stryker)战车上,2024年中东部署后未能说服士兵,最终在西尔堡(Fort Sill)博物馆里终老[2]。 LOCUST X3对症的是真正的败因——维护:功率更低,底座为滑橇式,可在车队任意卡车之间换装,载车进厂换机油,武器也不必随之下线[2][4]。验证来自格兰德河:8月25日,一名士兵用这套系统迎战贩毒集团无人机,两周内击落11架,每次射击只花几美元电费[5]。首批交付定于2027财年年底,按计划[部队2028年初即可列装](https://www.defensenews.com/industry/techwatch/2026/10/13/us-army-targets-2028-for-first-high-energy-laser-counter-drone-weapons/)[4]。补上这块短板的厂商拿到订单,理所当然。 ## 开放成就了武器,也封顶了回报 陆军将以竞争方式出资研制的原型子系统,涵盖激光源、光束定向器、供电与软件[3]。其中软件分量最重:AI辅助的瞄准点层负责让光束咬住目标,并为迎战无人机群定下循环射击速率——如今,这一层也成了开放接口[3][2]。陆军定于2031财年前后就适配步兵班用车辆(Infantry Squad Vehicle,ISV)的新改型作出决定,那是这些工作重新招标的既定节点[3]。 ![美国陆军一辆加装LOCUST激光武器系统的M1301步兵班用车辆,停在西尔堡一座机库外。](https://storage.googleapis.com/theinference-public/img/844df1b3809782c8.jpg) *2025年4月,西尔堡,安装在M1301步兵班用车辆上的一套LOCUST激光武器系统。E-HEL计划已排定,2031财年前后将就适配该型车的改型作出决定。 (US Army photo by Venetia Gonzales)* ## 部件这一层,赢家已定 再往上一层,已被一家部件制造商占据:[nLIGHT](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nlight)(纳斯达克代码:LASR)[7月赢得"联合激光武器系统"(Joint Laser Weapon System,JLWS)协议](https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/nlight-awarded-627-million-joint-laser-weapon-system-jlws-contract-2026-07-09),初始金额4400万美元[6]。该协议上限为6.27亿美元,[洛克希德·马丁](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/lockheed-martin)旗下的Aculight握有配套的另一份合同[2][6]。航空环境公司抢不走的地盘在出口市场:9月,[首笔金额超过5000万美元的LOCUST国际订单](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260908106462/en/AV-Secures-First-International-Order-for-LOCUST-Directed-Energy-CounterDrone-Systems)落定[7]。说白了,开放接口让武器在野外便于维护;而同样的开放也意味着,航空环境公司今天集成的任何子系统,日后都可能被竞标对手夺走。 ## 目标价高高在上,股价跌跌不休 10月16日,麦格理首次覆盖航空环境公司,给予"跑赢大盘"评级;当天该股收于121.79美元[8]。即便[巴克莱](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/barclays)10月9日以"与大市同步"评级起步——这是该行对"持有"的叫法——罗斯柴尔德10月6日转为"中性",[美国银行](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/bank-of-america)本月早些时候也下调了自家目标价,23位分析师的平均目标价仍较该收盘价高出77%[8]。公司那一周的回应,是[10月13日、14日两天连签四份谅解备忘录,没有一份是订单](https://theinference.org/article/aerovironment-announced-five-deals-in-six-days-none-an-order-against-a-216-average-analyst-target)[8]。 *Chart: **各家分析师目标价均远高于航空环境公司收盘价** 航空环境公司各分析师目标价与10月16日收盘价对比柱状图,单位美元* *已公布的各家目标价与2026年10月16日收盘价,单位美元。资料来源:MarketScreener援引MT Newswires。 [8]* 支撑这些目标价的营收,已连续四个季度同比增长超过一倍,最近一个季度增长5.7%[9]。而整份为期五年的合同,总值还不及公司一个季度的营收[1][9]。 *Chart: **营收连续四个季度同比翻倍以上,最近一个季度增长5.7%** 航空环境公司十二个季度营收走势折线图,单位百万美元* *航空环境公司向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交文件披露的季度营收,单位百万美元;横轴标签为日历季度。 [9]* ## 能力已被证明,利润池却是租来的 美国陆军这套设计,对士兵和纳税人都是对的:让武器在竞争中不断改进,而不是像上一回那样作为封闭系统归于失败[2]。航空环境公司凭战场表现赢得订单,还建起了生产激光器的工厂——在阿尔伯克基扩建产能,投入3000万美元[1]。但最终决定回报的是合同文件,而非券商的首次覆盖报告:接口是开放的,改型决策已排上日程,再往上一层早已归部件制造商所有。握着这一差价的持股者,实际上是在为合同刻意不给的持久性兜底。 ## Takeaway LOCUST X3是美国首套签订生产合同的高能激光系统,但12个子系统接口开放、上层部件环节对手环伺、2031年新改型决策排定在案,航空环境的利润主张注定只是暂时的。 ## Sources 1. [AeroVironment press release via Business Wire/Morningstar, "AV's LOCUST Selected for Nearly $500 million Army Counter-UAS Contract for Enduring-High Energy Laser (E-HEL) Program," September 2, 2026](https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20260818921666/avs-locust-selected-for-nearly-500-million-army-counter-uas-contract-for-enduring-high-energy-laser-e-hel-program) 2. [Tech Times, "AeroVironment's LOCUST X3 Wins Army's First Laser Weapon Contract; Sled Beats Fixed Mount," October 16, 2026](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/329121/20261016/aerovironments-locust-x3-wins-armys-first-laser-weapon-contract-sled-beats-fixed-mount.htm) 3. [Aviation Week, Steve Trimble, "U.S. Army Defines Goals For E-HEL Upgrade Plan," October 13, 2026](https://aviationweek.com/defense/missile-defense-weapons/us-army-defines-goals-e-hel-upgrade-plan) 4. [Defense News, Leandra Bernstein, "US Army targets 2028 for first high-energy laser counter-drone weapons," October 13, 2026](https://www.defensenews.com/industry/techwatch/2026/10/13/us-army-targets-2028-for-first-high-energy-laser-counter-drone-weapons/) 5. [Yahoo News, Nikshep Myle, "The U.S. Army's Laser Weapon Cut Cartel Drone Activity by 75% in Two Weeks," September 8, 2026](https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/u-army-laser-weapon-cut-183435093.html) 6. [nLIGHT press release via Nasdaq, "nLIGHT Awarded $627 Million Joint Laser Weapon System (JLWS) Contract," July 9, 2026](https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/nlight-awarded-627-million-joint-laser-weapon-system-jlws-contract-2026-07-09) 7. [AeroVironment press release via Business Wire, "AV Secures First International Order for LOCUST Directed Energy Counter-Drone Systems," September 10, 2026](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260908106462/en/AV-Secures-First-International-Order-for-LOCUST-Directed-Energy-CounterDrone-Systems) 8. [MT Newswires via MarketScreener, "Macquarie Initiates AeroVironment at Outperform With $210 Price Target," October 16, 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/macquarie-initiates-aerovironment-at-outperform-with-210-price-target-ce785cdada8bff27) 9. [AeroVironment quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved October 17, 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001368622) --- 美国陆军买下首套量产激光武器:航空环境斩获4.648亿美元,利润归属仍存变数 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/the-army-s-first-production-laser-pays-aerovironment-464-8-million-and-keeps-the-profit-contestable/zh-CN