--- title: "The Trade Desk beats with $736 million but guides the holiday quarter 11% below last year's $846.8 million" description: "Shares spiked as much as 26% after hours on a $736 million quarter, then pared the move as the finance chief declined the usual holiday step-up. The fourth-quarter guide of at least $755 million beats the Street but sits 11% below last year's $846.8 million holiday quarter, and three points of the beat do not repeat." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Applications" published: 2026-11-10T03:57:01.023Z modified: 2026-11-10T03:57:01.023Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/the-trade-desk-beats-with-736-million-but-guides-the-holiday-quarter-11-below-last-year-s-846-8-million language: en keywords: "The Trade Desk, Earnings, Advertising, Guidance, Stock Moves" --- # The Trade Desk beats with $736 million but guides the holiday quarter 11% below last year's $846.8 million > Shares spiked as much as 26% after hours on a $736 million quarter, then pared the move as the finance chief declined the usual holiday step-up. The fourth-quarter guide of at least $755 million beats the Street but sits 11% below last year's $846.8 million holiday quarter, and three points of the beat do not repeat. [The Trade Desk](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/the-trade-desk), the ad-buying platform of the open internet, walked into Monday night with Wall Street parked where management had left it in August: at least $650 million of third-quarter revenue, the floor of [its first guided revenue decline](https://theinference.org/article/the-trade-desk-guides-its-first-revenue-decline-12-and-netflix-ad-data-goes-live-without-measurement) [1][2][4]. The print was $736 million, 13% above the $650.7 million consensus [2][4], with adjusted earnings of $0.33 a share against the $0.25 the Street expected [1][4]. The stock had already jumped more than 15% on Monday on the return of co-founder and former chief technology officer Dave Pickles [5]. After the print it spiked as much as 26% after hours, then pared most of the gain and traded about 4% higher at the time of writing [1]. It remains down 61% in a year analysts framed as lost [1][3]. ## Flat underneath, with three points borrowed Beneath the beat, the quarter was flat. Revenue slipped 0.5% year over year, net income fell to $38 million from $116 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin dropped to 36% from 43% [6]. Roughly three percentage points of revenue came from a strategic partner and will not recur, and political advertising ran at a mid-single-digit share in the company's biggest election cycle yet [7]. Strip those three points and revenue is still about $714 million, and the finance chief [said even without them the quarter came in meaningfully better than the company anticipated](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/trade-desk-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/ar-AA2h5IQL) [7]. August had called for $160 million of adjusted EBITDA; the quarter delivered $266 million [5][6]. ## The fourth-quarter guide shrinks the biggest quarter For the fourth quarter, the three months ending in December, management [guided to at least $755 million of revenue and $280 million of adjusted EBITDA](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261109259589/en/), above Street estimates of $692 million and $197 million [1][6]. Against last year's holiday quarter of $846.8 million, that is a decline of about 11%, with EBITDA down about 30% [5][8]. *Chart: **The guide tops Street estimates on both revenue and EBITDA** Column chart comparing The Trade Desk's fourth-quarter 2026 guidance with Street estimates: revenue guided to at least $755 million against $692 million expected, and adjusted EBITDA guided to $280 million against $197 million expected.* *Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance versus analyst consensus, millions of US dollars. Revenue guidance is at least $755 million and adjusted EBITDA guidance is $280 million. Sources: The Trade Desk Q3 2026 press release; StockTwits via Yahoo Finance. [1][6]* Chief Financial Officer Nate Olmstead said the company is "not expecting the normal seasonal uplift Q3 to Q4 that we've seen in the past," citing some large global advertisers still under external pressure [7]. In each of the last two years the fourth quarter stepped up 14 to 18% from the third; this guide assumes 2.6% [8]. *Chart: **The $755 million fourth-quarter guide sits 11% below last year's holiday quarter** Line chart of The Trade Desk quarterly revenue from Q3 2024 through a guided Q4 2026, showing the $755 million guide sitting 11% below the $846.8 million Q4 2025 holiday quarter and breaking the usual 14 to 18% seasonal step-up from the third quarter.* *Quarterly revenue in millions of US dollars. Q4 '26 is management guidance of at least $755 million, marked as an estimate. Sources: The Trade Desk SEC filings; Q3 2026 press release. [6][8]* ## Retention and a $1 billion buyback hold the bull case until February Co-founder and Chief Executive Jeff Green still says the company is "operating below the level of growth we expect from ourselves" [6]. The bull ledger filled in anyway: retention above 95%, as it has been for over a decade [6], a buyback authorization raised by $731 million to $1 billion [6], and more than $100 million of gross savings promised for 2027 from [September's cut of about 15% of staff](https://theinference.org/article/the-trade-desk-repriced-options-to-12-26-after-cutting-575-jobs-232-5-million-votes-opposed) [1][7]. ## Clearing $755 million is now the whole test Two dates decide it: Open Measurement, the new product that assigns credit across the customer journey instead of by last click, launches later this quarter, and February brings the 2027 operating plan [7]. Election-year first quarters have historically dropped about 25% from the fourth [7]. If the fourth quarter clears $755 million, a bar that contains none of the partner benefit, August's floor understated the business; if it needs help getting there, the after-hours pop has handed long-suffering holders their exit [7]. ## Takeaway The Trade Desk beat its own floor by $86 million and lifted the buyback to $1 billion, but guided the December quarter to at least $755 million, 11% below last year's holiday quarter, on no seasonal uplift. ## Sources 1. [StockTwits via Yahoo Finance, TTD Stock Spikes After Hours On Q3 Earnings Beat, Then Retreats On Management's Cautious Tone, 9 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ttd-stock-spikes-hours-q3-001803944.html) 2. [Associated Press via Yahoo Finance, The Trade Desk: Q3 Earnings Snapshot, 9 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/media-advertising/articles/trade-desk-q3-earnings-snapshot-211459295.html) 3. [Barron's via Yahoo Finance, Trade Desk's Earnings Beat Defies Analysts' 'Lost Year' Projections, 9 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/0aae3af7-cc7f-3af0-af9a-6d803d85246a/trade-desk-s-earnings-beat.html) 4. [StockStory via MSN, The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) beats expectations in strong Q3 2026, stock jumps 21.8%, 9 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/the-trade-desk-nasdaqttd-beats-expectations-in-strong-q3-2026-stock-jumps-218/ar-AA2h5lm8) 5. [The Motley Fool via MSN, The Trade Desk stock is suddenly on fire. Here's why., 9 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/the-trade-desk-stock-is-suddenly-on-fire-heres-why/ar-AA2h5R7u) 6. [Business Wire, The Trade Desk Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results, 9 November 2026](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261109259589/en/) 7. [Benzinga via MSN, Trade Desk Q3 2026 earnings call transcript, 9 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/trade-desk-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/ar-AA2h5IQL) 8. [The Trade Desk, quarterly revenue from its SEC filings, retrieved 10 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001671933) --- The Trade Desk beats with $736 million but guides the holiday quarter 11% below last year's $846.8 million — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/the-trade-desk-beats-with-736-million-but-guides-the-holiday-quarter-11-below-last-year-s-846-8-million