---
title: "Three firms say buy Coinbase after Binance's $6.3 billion hack; Armstrong's sale window opens November 16"
description: "After the record $6.3 billion Binance theft, Cantor Fitzgerald, TD Cowen and Compass Point told clients to buy listed crypto stocks as the safer way to own crypto. What that safety costs at Coinbase: a quarterly profit made of coin-price marks, falling earnings estimates, and executive sale plans that open on November 16."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Economy"
published: 2026-10-31T03:12:58.286Z
modified: 2026-10-31T03:12:58.286Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/three-firms-say-buy-coinbase-after-binance-s-6-3-billion-hack-armstrong-s-sale-window-opens-november-16
language: en
keywords: "Coinbase, Binance, Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, Analyst Calls, Security"
---

# Three firms say buy Coinbase after Binance's $6.3 billion hack; Armstrong's sale window opens November 16

> After the record $6.3 billion Binance theft, Cantor Fitzgerald, TD Cowen and Compass Point told clients to buy listed crypto stocks as the safer way to own crypto. What that safety costs at Coinbase: a quarterly profit made of coin-price marks, falling earnings estimates, and executive sale plans that open on November 16.

Crypto's largest theft has produced Wall Street's boldest buy note, aimed at a stock whose chief executive's selling window opens on November 16 [7]. A day after [about $6.3 billion left Binance](https://theinference.org/article/north-korea-took-6-36-billion-from-binance-and-2-4-billion-is-beyond-any-freeze), the world's largest crypto exchange, on October 29, [analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald, TD Cowen and Compass Point told clients to buy the selloff](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/worried-crypto-hacks-buy-bitcoin-200603005.html) in [Coinbase](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/coinbase), the Nasdaq-listed exchange, plus [Robinhood](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/robinhood), the retail brokerage, and Strategy, the corporate bitcoin holder: listed shares, they argued, carry none of the custody risk the hack just exposed [1].

The custody argument is real: shares in a regulated, exchange-listed company cannot be drained the way [Binance](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/binance)'s wallets were. It is only half the trade, though, because those shares still run on coin prices, and the hack moved coin prices. Coinbase fell 10.6% on Friday and has lost 60% of its value in a year [2].

## The break-in was Binance's, not bitcoin's

The thieves came through a compromised laptop belonging to an engineer on Binance's operations team, then [submitted unauthorized withdrawals across ten blockchains](https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/binance-links-63-billion-crypto-theft-to-compromised-devops-laptop/); most of the money moved in about 20 minutes [3]. Binance says it has found no leaked private key, and TD Cowen's case rests exactly there: a failure inside one exchange's operations is not a failure of the technology underneath it [3][1].

Cleanup came quickly, and only partway. Stablecoin issuers froze roughly $3 billion of the stolen money since the break-in, [Tether](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/tether) alone more than $1.5 billion, but TRM Labs, a blockchain analytics firm, estimates the attacker still controls about $2.4 billion of bitcoin and ether no issuer can reach [1][3]. Binance has set aside $6.34 billion to cover every loss, hence Cantor analyst Ramsey El-Assal's line that "this is not 2022": FTX, the exchange whose 2022 collapse took customer money down with it, had misused those funds, and Binance is paying [1][4].

## What the dip buyer is actually paying for

The custody argument ends at the wallet. Of the [$719 million of third-quarter net income](https://decrypt.co/382188/coinbase-beats-719-million-q3-profit-crypto-gains) anchoring the recovery case, $715 million was gains on the crypto Coinbase holds, struck with bitcoin at $83,576 on September 30; adjusted net income was $78 million [5][6]. Bitcoin ended the week near $77,000, below that mark, low enough that, if it held to year-end, the same accounting could swap the gain for a steep loss [6][4].

*Chart: **$715 million of the $719 million profit is gains on Coinbase's own crypto** Column chart of Coinbase's third-quarter 2026 results in millions of dollars: GAAP net income of 719, of which 715 is gains on crypto held, against adjusted net income of 78.*

*Millions of dollars, third quarter 2026. The GAAP figure includes gains on crypto Coinbase holds, struck with bitcoin at $83,576 on September 30; adjusted net income excludes them. Sources: Decrypt; 24/7 Wall St. [5][6]*

Away from the balance sheet the picture is mixed. Prediction markets, where users bet on event outcomes, crossed $200 million of annualized revenue [5]. The estimates still point down: analysts cut their 2027 earnings forecast to $3.02 a share, from $4.21 three months ago [2].

*Chart: **Three losing quarters, then a profit made of balance-sheet marks** Line chart of Coinbase quarterly net income from Q3 2025 to Q3 2026: 0.43, minus 0.67, minus 0.39, minus 0.36, then a jump to 0.72 billion dollars in Q3 2026.*

*Coinbase's quarterly net income, billions of dollars, from its SEC filings. The Q3 2026 profit includes $715 million of gains on crypto held, struck at bitcoin's $83,576 September 30 mark. Sources: Decrypt; SEC filings. [5][8]*

## Three firms said buy, five banks cut

El-Assal wrote "we would be buyers on weakness" [4]. Compass Point expects business to migrate to rivals including Coinbase, and names $75,000 to $77,000 as the bitcoin level that decides it, a band the coin ended Friday just above [1][4]. [Moody's](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/moody-s), the ratings agency, drew the opposite lesson, saying the hack illustrates risk concentrated in large, centralized intermediaries [1]. After Thursday's earnings report, [five banks cut their Coinbase targets](https://247wallst.com/investing/cryptocurrency/2026/10/30/coinbase-just-posted-a-719-million-profit-why-did-barclays-cut-its-target-to-120/), [Barclays](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/barclays) furthest to $120, while Canaccord Genuity kept its Buy at $275, about 120 times the earnings analysts expect over the next year [6][2].

*Chart: **Canaccord's $275 sits above a Street busy cutting targets** Bar chart of Coinbase price targets in dollars per share on October 30, 2026: lowest target 110, Barclays 120, Friday close 141.66, consensus of 38 analysts 211, Canaccord with Buy kept 275, highest target 300.*

*Dollars per share, October 30, 2026. Consensus and target range per TIKR; Barclays cut per 24/7 Wall St. [2][6]*

## A selling window opens on November 16

The [insider plans we reported on Friday](https://theinference.org/article/armstrong-files-to-sell-1-31-billion-of-coinbase-after-a-719-million-profit-that-is-mostly-a-crypto-mark) now land in a different market [7]. Chief executive [Brian Armstrong](https://theinference.org/markets/people/brian-armstrong), co-founder Fred Ehrsam and president [Emilie Choi](https://theinference.org/markets/people/emilie-choi) have filed schedules to sell up to 13.6 million shares through 2027; Armstrong's window opens on November 16, and his plan, adopted on August 12, is more than double the size of the one he filed a year ago [7].

These are Rule 10b5-1 programs, selling schedules insiders lock in while holding no material nonpublic information, so Armstrong's predates the hack [7]. A $1.96 billion buyback authorization sits on the other side [7]. It is still supply, arriving two weeks after three firms told clients to buy the dip.

## Two dates will settle it

The notes are right that regulated shares remove the emptied-wallet risk, and that is worth something. It is not worth 70 times earnings, which is what Coinbase commanded at Thursday's close against a five-year average of 28 [2].

A stock bought at that price is a leveraged bet on the very coins the hack just knocked down. The sales that follow November 16 will show whether the people running the exchange share the analysts' confidence, and the fourth-quarter report, expected in February [2], will show whether trading, not the balance sheet, is what recovered.

## Takeaway

Three firms call listed crypto stocks the safer way in after Binance's $6.3 billion hack; Coinbase's version of safe costs a profit made of coin marks, falling 2027 estimates and a November 16 sale window.

## Sources

1. [Decrypt via Yahoo Finance, "Worried About Crypto Hacks? Buy Bitcoin Proxies in Stock Market Instead, Say Wall Street Firms", 30 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/worried-crypto-hacks-buy-bitcoin-200603005.html)
2. [Yahoo Finance (TIKR), "Could Coinbase Actually Climb 94%? Or Is Canaccord Totally Wrong?", 30 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/could-coinbase-actually-climb-94-203319542.html)
3. [BleepingComputer, "Binance links $6.3 billion crypto theft to compromised DevOps laptop", 30 October 2026](https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/binance-links-63-billion-crypto-theft-to-compromised-devops-laptop/)
4. [TheStreet via Yahoo Finance, "Wall Street analyst recommends buying opportunity after Binance hack", 30 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/wall-street-analyst-recommends-buying-212710173.html)
5. [Decrypt, "Coinbase Swings to $719 Million Q3 Profit on Crypto Gains", 29 October 2026](https://decrypt.co/382188/coinbase-beats-719-million-q3-profit-crypto-gains)
6. [24/7 Wall St., "Coinbase Just Posted a $719 Million Profit. Why Did Barclays Cut Its Target to $120?", 30 October 2026](https://247wallst.com/investing/cryptocurrency/2026/10/30/coinbase-just-posted-a-719-million-profit-why-did-barclays-cut-its-target-to-120/)
7. [BeInCrypto via Yahoo Finance, "Coinbase Posts Surprise Profit as Insiders Plan $2 Billion Share Sales: Why Now?", 29 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/coinbase-posts-surprise-profit-insiders-203858668.html)
8. [Coinbase Global, quarterly net income from its SEC filings, retrieved 31 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001679788)


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Three firms say buy Coinbase after Binance's $6.3 billion hack; Armstrong's sale window opens November 16 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/three-firms-say-buy-coinbase-after-binance-s-6-3-billion-hack-armstrong-s-sale-window-opens-november-16