---
title: "Traders buy MACOM as a China-ban winner; its own 10-K shows China paid 37.7% of revenue"
description: "The Lowell, Massachusetts chipmaker swung to a $335.3 million profit on a 74% data-center surge, and traders now buy the stock as a winner of Washington's pending ban on Chinese optical parts. Its own annual report shows the other side: customers billed in China paid 37.7% of the year's revenue, up from 28.4%."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Chips"
published: 2026-11-13T14:21:00.988Z
modified: 2026-11-13T14:21:00.988Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/traders-buy-macom-as-a-china-ban-winner-its-own-10-k-shows-china-paid-37-7-of-revenue
language: en
keywords: "Chips, Semiconductors, Earnings, Export Controls, Data Center"
---

# Traders buy MACOM as a China-ban winner; its own 10-K shows China paid 37.7% of revenue

> The Lowell, Massachusetts chipmaker swung to a $335.3 million profit on a 74% data-center surge, and traders now buy the stock as a winner of Washington's pending ban on Chinese optical parts. Its own annual report shows the other side: customers billed in China paid 37.7% of the year's revenue, up from 28.4%.

MACOM, a Lowell, Massachusetts maker of analog, microwave and optical semiconductors traded on Nasdaq as MTSI, filed [its fiscal 2026 annual report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1493594/000149359426000044/mtsi-20261002.htm) on November 12 [1]. Coverage led with the swing: revenue up 37.3% to $1,327.6 million, net income of $335.3 million against a $54.2 million loss a year earlier, gross margin up 330 basis points to 58.0% [2].

The same document carries a number no outlet put in a headline. Customers billed in China paid 37.7% of fiscal 2026 revenue, up from 28.4% [1]. In dollars, China paid $501.0 million, within $5 million of the entire United States at $505.8 million, and up 82% in a single year [1].

## The optical ramp is real

Data Center revenue rose 74.0% to $509.7 million on optical components, including photodetectors for data-center links running at up to 1.6 terabits per second [2]. Industrial and Defense, still the largest market at $536.4 million, grew 27.8%, and Telecom added 10.6% to $281.6 million [2]. Quarterly revenue has climbed for ten straight quarters, closing the year at $424.8 million, up 62.7% [3]. On November 5, chief executive Stephen Daly guided the new quarter to between $450 million and $460 million and set a base case, expressly not formal guidance, of roughly 80% data-center growth for fiscal 2027 [4].

![MACOM optical components and modules on a lit display stand at a trade show](https://storage.googleapis.com/theinference-public/img/805ea76a8dbf13a8.jpg)

*MACOM's optical parts on display at the 9th Bengaluru Space Expo in September 2026, including packaged lasers, photoreceivers and avalanche photodiodes. (Gpkp)*

*Chart: **Ten straight quarters of growth, and a guide that points higher** Line chart of MACOM quarterly revenue from the quarter ended June 2024 to the quarter ended October 2026, rising from $190.5 million to $424.8 million, with an estimate for the guided December 2026 quarter at $455 million and a range of $450 million to $460 million*

*Revenue by fiscal quarter. FQ1 2027 is the midpoint of the $450 million to $460 million range MACOM guided on November 5, 2026, drawn with that range as an estimate. Sources: MACOM SEC filings; MACOM guidance. [3][4]*

## A ban-winner trade meets its own filing

The bull case on social platforms is blunt: "you have no hyperformance AI data center without the lightening fast photonic opticals, and US is trying to ban China suppliers," [one Stocktwits trader wrote](https://stocktwits.com/AlphaBull_10M/message/668821110), tagging MTSI [5]. The policy behind it is live.

The Federal Communications Commission is drafting a ban on imports of Chinese optical transceivers, the modules that move data over fiber inside AI data centers, and [Reuters reported on November 10](https://www.msn.com/en-us/technology/tech-companies/exclusive-microsoft-presses-trump-to-scuttle-expected-ban-on-chinese-data-center-technology/ar-AA2h8gBw) that [Microsoft](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/microsoft) has been pressing the White House to drop it, warning a ban could stall the AI buildout [6].

MTSI jumped 10.3% to $249.86 on November 11 [7], and a stock purchase by Representative Gil Cisneros, who sits on the House Armed Services Committee, [circulated on X the same week](https://x.com/QuiverQuant/status/2120527953452830823) [8].

## The same ban cuts both ways

Traders are buying [MACOM](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/macom-technology-solutions) as a bet against China; in fiscal 2026 China nearly matched the whole United States as its customer [1]. The filing argues with the trade on both ends. A ban that steers hyperscalers toward domestic suppliers would feed MACOM's data-center line, but the 10-K warns that changes in US or Chinese trade, tariff or export-control policy could hurt sales into China, and that Beijing is funding domestic semiconductor supply chains that could displace foreign vendors [1].

China has also imposed or proposed export controls on gallium and indium, the feedstocks of MACOM's compound-semiconductor wafers [1]. Policy news already moves these names: [Lumentum](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/lumentum) and Applied Optoelectronics, the two stocks most tightly tied to the ban thesis, fell about 4% on November 12 as Microsoft's pushback surfaced, though a broader AI selloff was also at work [9].

*Chart: **China billings closed to within $5 million of U.S. billings** Column chart comparing MACOM revenue billed to China and to the United States in fiscal 2024, 2025 and 2026, with China nearly catching the US in 2026*

*Revenue by customer billing address; fiscal years ended late September 2024, October 2025 and October 2026. Source: MACOM fiscal 2026 Form 10-K. [1]*

## Insiders sold the whole way up

[GuruFocus](https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9193606/a-look-at-macom-technology-solutions-holdings-inc-mtsi-after-103-gain-gf-value-21713-vs-price-24986) counts $287.5 million of insider selling over the past twelve months, with no buying [7]. Of the $335.3 million profit, $61.0 million is an investment fair-value gain rather than operations; operating income was $305.5 million, up 136% [10][11]. At $249.86 the stock sits 15.1% above GuruFocus's value estimate of $217.13, and still about 40% below its 52-week high of $418.90 [7].

## The caveat, and the date that decides it

One limit the filing itself forces: revenue is counted by customer billing address, so no one outside MACOM knows how much of that China line is contract manufacturers feeding the same US AI buildout rather than Chinese end demand [1]. The counterweight to the bear case is real too. The draft ban [reportedly covers only new Chinese transceiver models](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/11/12/lumentum-and-applied-optoelectronics-fall-4-as-microsoft-pushes-back-on-ban-on-chinese-optical-parts-coherent-holds-steady/), exempts installed gear and has no vote date, and the 3.2-terabit threshold under discussion would leave today's 1.6T products untouched [6][9]. The tell is the FCC's published rule: its threshold, or its absence, decides whether China is MACOM's tailwind or its exposure.

## Takeaway

China-billed customers paid $501.0 million in fiscal 2026, within $5 million of the entire United States, while traders buy MACOM as a winner of the pending ban on Chinese optical parts.

## Sources

1. [MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc., Form 10-K for fiscal year ended 2 October 2026, SEC EDGAR, filed 12 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1493594/000149359426000044/mtsi-20261002.htm)
2. [StockTitan, MACOM FY2026 earnings: $335M profit reverses loss (10-K summary), 13 November 2026](https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/MTSI/10-k-macom-technology-solutions-holdings-inc-files-annual-report-901f78bf71a2.html)
3. [MACOM Technology Solutions, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 13 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001493594)
4. [EconoTimes, MACOM Sets Fiscal First-Quarter Revenue Range at $450 Million to $460 Million, November 2026](https://econotimes.com/MACOM-Sets-Fiscal-First-Quarter-Revenue-Range-at-450-Million-to-460-Million-1772792)
5. [Stocktwits post by AlphaBull_10M on $MTSI, collected 12 November 2026](https://stocktwits.com/AlphaBull_10M/message/668821110)
6. [Reuters, Alexandra Alper: Microsoft presses Trump to scuttle expected ban on Chinese data center technology, 10 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/technology/tech-companies/exclusive-microsoft-presses-trump-to-scuttle-expected-ban-on-chinese-data-center-technology/ar-AA2h8gBw)
7. [GuruFocus, A Look at MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI) After 10.3% Gain, 11 November 2026](https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9193606/a-look-at-macom-technology-solutions-holdings-inc-mtsi-after-103-gain-gf-value-21713-vs-price-24986)
8. [QuiverQuant post on X on a MACOM purchase by Representative Gil Cisneros, collected 12 November 2026](https://x.com/QuiverQuant/status/2120527953452830823)
9. [24/7 Wall St, Lumentum and Applied Optoelectronics Fall 4% as Microsoft Pushes Back on Ban on Chinese Optical Parts, 12 November 2026](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/11/12/lumentum-and-applied-optoelectronics-fall-4-as-microsoft-pushes-back-on-ban-on-chinese-optical-parts-coherent-holds-steady/)
10. [TradingView News, MACOM FY 2026: Revenue $1.33B, EPS $4.31, 10-K Summary, 13 November 2026](https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:9584ee519f89c:0-macom-fy-2026-revenue-1-33b-eps-4-31-10-k-summary/)
11. [Screw Street, MACOM Technology Solutions posts 37% revenue rise, net income turns positive in fiscal 2026, 12 November 2026](https://screwstreet.com/news/macom-technology-solutions-earnings-2026-11-12)


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Traders buy MACOM as a China-ban winner; its own 10-K shows China paid 37.7% of revenue — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/traders-buy-macom-as-a-china-ban-winner-its-own-10-k-shows-china-paid-37-7-of-revenue