---
title: "UBS cuts Besi to €159 after it raised its €2.2 billion target; the order book decides October 22"
description: "UBS, Bank of America and Barclays cut Besi within days of the company raising its own long-term revenue target to €2.2 billion. The fight is over when memory makers switch to hybrid bonding, and the third-quarter order book on October 22, 2026, is the next evidence."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Markets"
published: 2026-10-15T13:25:52.224Z
modified: 2026-10-15T13:25:52.224Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/ubs-cuts-besi-to-159-after-it-raised-its-2-2-billion-target-the-order-book-decides-october-22
language: en
keywords: "Markets, Semiconductors, Chip Packaging, Analyst Ratings, Memory"
---

# UBS cuts Besi to €159 after it raised its €2.2 billion target; the order book decides October 22

> UBS, Bank of America and Barclays cut Besi within days of the company raising its own long-term revenue target to €2.2 billion. The fight is over when memory makers switch to hybrid bonding, and the third-quarter order book on October 22, 2026, is the next evidence.

On September 24, 2026, BE Semiconductor Industries, the Dutch maker of the machines that bond dies inside AI chip packages, raised its long-term revenue target to €2.2 billion [1]. Twelve days later the cutting started. [Bank of America moved Besi from Buy to Neutral at €212 on October 6](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/ubs-cut-besi-target-from-eur-370-to-eur-159-for-besi-stock/70312081) [3], [UBS went to Sell a day later at €159, down from €370](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/ubs-cuts-target-for-besi-stock-from-eur-370-to-eur-159/70326373) [1], and Barclays trimmed its target at Equalweight [2].

The shares fell 5.9% to €180.75 on October 7 and traded at €162.18 on the 15th, 50.6% below the 52-week high of €328.40 [2][1]. What the banks dispute is the pace of hybrid bonding, the process that joins stacked dies with direct copper connections instead of solder bumps. [UBS put the hybrid-bonding revenue implied by the share price at roughly €936 million for 2030, against its own forecast of €424 million](https://www.remio.ai/post/besi-hybrid-bonding-delay-turns-a-memory-boom-into-share-pressure) [2].

## The shortage, not weak demand, is the delay

The mechanism is counterintuitive: memory makers are too busy to switch tools. High-bandwidth memory, the stacked DRAM that feeds AI accelerators, is so scarce that producers can sell nearly everything they make on the qualified old process [2]. JEDEC, the industry body that writes memory specifications, raised the permitted package height from 720 to 775 microns, letting 16-layer HBM4 stacks stay on solder microbumps rather than move to Besi's copper connections [2].

The order evidence is slipping too. UBS expects about 20 hybrid-bonding tool orders in 2028 against a market expectation of 100 [1]. A Korean report says some HBM4 back-end equipment orders at [SK hynix](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/sk-hynix), the high-bandwidth memory leader, planned for this half may slip into 2027, though it names no suppliers or amounts [4]. The boom that was supposed to sell Besi's flagship tool is keeping its customers on the old one.

[Bank of America](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/bank-of-america)'s note pressed on two fronts: [slipping HBM timelines](https://diesignal.com/articles/bofa-downgrades-be-semiconductor-on-hbm-delays-asml-threat-f9f281a2), and [ASML](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/asml), the Dutch lithography giant, which has [said publicly that it is looking at hybrid bonding](https://thenextweb.com/news/besi-asml-hybrid-bonding-dutch) [5][6]. The threat is "not reflected in the stock," analysts led by Didier Scemama wrote [6].

*Chart: **The new targets sit at or below a price already halved** Bar chart comparing UBS's €159 target, the October 15 share price of €162.18, Bank of America's €212 target and the €328.40 52-week high*

*Price targets in € per share. Targets from bank notes dated October 6 and 7, 2026; price and 52-week high from the Lang & Schwarz quote of October 15, 2026. Sources: Ad Hoc News, Remio. [1][2]*

## Besi's own numbers still show a boom

Besi's second-quarter numbers show no demand problem. [Orders hit €292.9 million, up 128.8% year on year](https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/07/23/tmt-newswire/globenewswire/be-semiconductor-industries-nv-announces-q2-26-and-h1-26-results/2389979), hybrid-bonding customers rose from 15 at the end of 2025 to 21 by mid-2026, and orders over the trailing twelve months reached a record €987.6 million [7]. Third-quarter revenue is guided up 10 to 15% from the €249.9 million second-quarter base [7].

*Chart: **Orders more than doubled year on year, and Q3 is guided higher still** Column chart of Besi quarterly revenue and orders from Q2 2025 to Q2 2026, with the Q3 2026 revenue guidance midpoint marked as an estimate*

*Quarterly revenue and orders in € million. Q3 2026 revenue shown at the midpoint of management's 10 to 15% guidance over the €249.9 million second quarter. Source: Besi's Q2-26 and H1-26 results, 23 July 2026. [7]*

The partners are still lining up. [Applied Materials](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/applied-materials), the American equipment giant, has [made Besi an innovation partner at its $5 billion EPIC Center](https://chipdispatch.com/articles/besi-joins-applied-materials-5-billion-epic-center-for-hybrid-bonding-7caa3559), a Silicon Valley R&D facility, alongside Samsung, SK hynix, [Micron](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/micron) and [TSMC](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/tsmc) [8]. Tata Electronics, the Tata Group's electronics arm, [signed a packaging partnership with Besi in India](https://chipdispatch.com/articles/tata-electronics-taps-besi-for-advanced-chip-packaging-in-india-3b97f21a), with no value or timeline disclosed [9]. The screening analytics firm Simply Wall Street asks whether the Applied tie-up leaves the stock undervalued [10].

The research firm Bernstein expects three of every four hybrid bonders shipped in 2028 to be Besi's [6]. UBS itself still calls Besi a high-quality company whose valuation implies more 2030 hybrid-bonding revenue than the bank forecasts [2].

## The October 22 order book is the arbiter

The tell on the day is repeat production orders from memory makers rather than evaluation systems, and management's language on whether adoption shifts toward the HBM5 generation [2]. [Besi reports before the open on October 22, 2026](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/be-semiconductor), and the number to beat is the second quarter's €292.9 million in orders [1][7].

## Takeaway

The banks and the company disagree on when memory makers switch to hybrid bonding; the October 22 order book, against €292.9 million, is the next evidence.

## Sources

1. [Ad Hoc News, "UBS cuts target for Besi stock from EUR 370 to EUR 159," 15 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/ubs-cuts-target-for-besi-stock-from-eur-370-to-eur-159/70326373)
2. [Remio, "Besi Hybrid Bonding Delay Turns a Memory Boom Into Share Pressure," October 2026](https://www.remio.ai/post/besi-hybrid-bonding-delay-turns-a-memory-boom-into-share-pressure)
3. [Ad Hoc News, "UBS cut Besi target from EUR 370 to EUR 159 for Besi stock," 13 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/ubs-cut-besi-target-from-eur-370-to-eur-159-for-besi-stock/70312081)
4. [24/7 Wall St, "SK Hynix Delays HBM4 Equipment Orders as Its Stock Falls 5 Days Straight," 14 October 2026](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/14/sk-hynix-delays-hbm4-equipment-orders-as-its-stock-falls-5-days-straight/)
5. [Die Signal, "BofA Downgrades BE Semiconductor on HBM Delays, ASML Threat," October 2026](https://diesignal.com/articles/bofa-downgrades-be-semiconductor-on-hbm-delays-asml-threat-f9f281a2)
6. [The Next Web, "ASML's chip packaging move threatens Besi shares, Bank of America says," 6 October 2026](https://thenextweb.com/news/besi-asml-hybrid-bonding-dutch)
7. [GlobeNewswire via The Manila Times, "BE Semiconductor Industries N.V. Announces Q2-26 and H1-26 Results," 23 July 2026](https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/07/23/tmt-newswire/globenewswire/be-semiconductor-industries-nv-announces-q2-26-and-h1-26-results/2389979)
8. [Chip Dispatch, "Besi Joins Applied Materials' $5 Billion EPIC Center for Hybrid Bonding," 9 October 2026](https://chipdispatch.com/articles/besi-joins-applied-materials-5-billion-epic-center-for-hybrid-bonding-7caa3559)
9. [Chip Dispatch, "Tata Electronics, Besi Partner on Advanced Chip Packaging in India," 12 October 2026](https://chipdispatch.com/articles/tata-electronics-taps-besi-for-advanced-chip-packaging-in-india-3b97f21a)
10. [Chip Dispatch, "Analyst Note Asks If Applied Materials Deal Leaves BE Semiconductor Undervalued," 15 October 2026](https://chipdispatch.com/articles/analyst-note-asks-if-applied-materials-deal-leaves-be-semiconductor-undervalued-a77cc2f4)


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UBS cuts Besi to €159 after it raised its €2.2 billion target; the order book decides October 22 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/ubs-cuts-besi-to-159-after-it-raised-its-2-2-billion-target-the-order-book-decides-october-22