--- title: "Vistra closed its $4 billion Cogentrix buy: 5,496 megawatts, and the DOJ required a Maine plant divested" description: "Vistra closed the Cogentrix buy on October 30: ten gas plants, 5,496 megawatts, across the three grids where AI data centers queue. The payoff now runs through a FERC approval, an auction PJM has never run, and a November 6 print that carries the plants for the first time." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Deals" published: 2026-10-31T14:13:06.517Z modified: 2026-10-31T14:13:06.517Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/vistra-closed-its-4-billion-cogentrix-buy-5-496-megawatts-and-the-doj-required-a-maine-plant-divested language: en keywords: "Vistra, Natural Gas, Data Centers, Mergers And Acquisitions, Power Markets, Antitrust" --- # Vistra closed its $4 billion Cogentrix buy: 5,496 megawatts, and the DOJ required a Maine plant divested > Vistra closed the Cogentrix buy on October 30: ten gas plants, 5,496 megawatts, across the three grids where AI data centers queue. The payoff now runs through a FERC approval, an auction PJM has never run, and a November 6 print that carries the plants for the first time. On October 30, [Vistra](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/vistra) Corp., the Irving, Texas power generator and retail electricity seller, [completed its purchase of Cogentrix Energy](https://www.citybiz.co/article/927199/vistra-completes-cogentrix-energy-acquisition-adding-5500-mw-of-natural-gas-capacity/) from funds managed by Quantum Capital Group: ten natural gas plants totaling 5,496 megawatts, taking the fleet to nearly 50,000 megawatts nationwide [1]. The same evening, the Justice Department's Antitrust Division [closed its probe into the merger](https://www.mlex.com/mlex/articles/2544845/us-doj-issues-closing-statement-for-vistra-cogentrix-electricity-merger) after the parties agreed to divest a Maine power plant, an agreement the agency said reduces "the combined firm's ability and incentive to withhold electricity and raise prices." The divestiture sale itself stays under DOJ monitoring [2]. ## Vistra named no price at close. Its January announcement did. The closing announcement disclosed no financial terms [1]. The [January announcement](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/vistra-to-buy-cogentrix-energy-in-4-billion-deal/ar-AA1THvGU) did: $4 billion, made up of $2.3 billion in cash, about $900 million in Vistra stock to Quantum and roughly $1.5 billion of assumed Cogentrix debt, with about $700 million of deal tax benefits flowing back to Vistra [3]. Chief Executive [Jim Burke](https://theinference.org/markets/people/jim-burke) called the assets "a strong strategic fit" for a fleet growing into AI-era demand [1]. ## Five of the ten plants sit where the data centers queue Five of the acquired plants, including the 881-megawatt Patriot and Hamilton-Liberty units in Pennsylvania, sit in PJM Interconnection, the 13-state grid serving more than 67 million people and the nation's largest concentration of data centers [1][4]. The evening before the close, PJM [filed a revised plan](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-30/largest-us-grid-seeks-to-hold-data-center-power-auction-in-march) for a special March 1-28 auction to buy up to 6.8 gigawatts of new capacity at a price cap of $555 per megawatt-day: about $1.4 billion a year, roughly $20.7 billion over 15 years if filled [4]. Federal regulators had called PJM's original plan "deeply flawed" and delayed the auction five months; the March dates now wait on their approval [4]. The auction names Vistra, alongside [Constellation Energy](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/constellation-energy), [NRG Energy](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nrg-energy) and [Talen Energy](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/talen-energy), among the producers positioned to win it [4]. The only Maine plant in the acquired portfolio is the 271-megawatt Rumford facility; neither the agency nor the company has named the divested asset [1]. *Chart: **Cogentrix is the largest single addition to Vistra's fleet in three years** Horizontal bar chart comparing megawatts added by three Vistra acquisitions: Energy Harbor about 4,000 MW in March 2024, Lotus Infrastructure more than 2,300 MW in October 2025, and Cogentrix 5,496 MW in October 2026, with the Cogentrix bar highlighted.* *Megawatts of generation capacity added by each Vistra acquisition, as reported by the company. The Energy Harbor (nuclear) and Lotus (natural gas) figures are the company's approximations; Cogentrix is the exact combined total of 5,496 MW across ten plants. Sources [1][3]. [1][3]* ## November 6 is the first print that carries the plants [Consensus expects earnings of $2.40 a share](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/vistra-corp-vst-reports-next-130005755.html), up 37.1% year over year, on revenue of $7.44 billion, up 49.8% [5]. The strongest of Vistra's last nine reported quarters was $6.29 billion in Q3 2024; the consensus quarter would clear it by about $1.15 billion [6]. A $20.7 billion auction proposal, a monitored divestiture and an unpriced closing all land inside one earnings call [4][2][1]. *Chart: **The $7.44 billion consensus for the Cogentrix quarter would top the last nine** Line chart of Vistra quarterly revenue from Q3 2024 through Q2 2026, between about $3.9 billion and $6.3 billion, with a dashed point for the Q3 2026 consensus estimate of $7.44 billion.* *Quarterly revenue in USD billions from Vistra's SEC filings, Q3 2024 through Q2 2026. Q3 2026 is the Zacks consensus estimate for the report due November 6, drawn dashed. Sources [6][5]. [6][5]* ## The bears got the same news the bulls did Of 82 analysts, 78 rate Vistra a buy, with a median price target of $210, 53% above Friday's close [7]. That close was $137.10, down 2.7% on the day the deal completed [7]. An earnings-surprise model shows the consensus EPS estimate revised 8.66% higher in 30 days, yet the most accurate estimate sits below consensus at an Earnings ESP of -7.22%, a combination the researchers themselves call hard to call [5]. Gary Cunningham, research director at brokerage Tradition Energy, expects PJM "isn't going to buy much new capacity," calls the program "a lot of noise for not a lot of actual help for reliability," and notes that every customer in a growing utility zone pays, "not just new load" [4]. ## Three dates decide what the fleet is worth FERC's ruling on PJM's revised allocation, PJM's December annual capacity auction, and the DOJ-monitored sale of the Maine plant now carry more pricing power over these 5,496 megawatts than any quarter of output [4][2]. Until those resolve, the AI premium on the fleet is still a proposal. November 6 shows whether management finally puts numbers on a deal it has not priced [5]. Earlier reporting followed the $4.2 billion Department of Energy loan offer and the $1 billion preferred redemption behind this build-out; [that deep dive is linked here](https://theinference.org/article/vistra-redeems-1-billion-of-8-preferred-as-the-doe-offers-up-to-4-2-billion-for-power-meta-already-bought) [8]. ## Takeaway Vistra closed its $4 billion Cogentrix acquisition on October 30, adding 5,496 megawatts of gas capacity and reaching nearly 50,000 megawatts, but the payoff now runs through a FERC ruling, PJM's December auction, a DOJ-monitored Maine divestiture and a November 6 earnings print that carries the plants for the first time. ## Sources 1. [citybiz, Vistra Completes Cogentrix Energy Acquisition, Adding 5,500 MW of Natural Gas Capacity, October 31, 2026](https://www.citybiz.co/article/927199/vistra-completes-cogentrix-energy-acquisition-adding-5500-mw-of-natural-gas-capacity/) 2. [MLex, US DOJ issues closing statement for Vistra-Cogentrix electricity merger, October 30, 2026](https://www.mlex.com/mlex/articles/2544845/us-doj-issues-closing-statement-for-vistra-cogentrix-electricity-merger) 3. [Dallas Business Journal via WFAA/MSN, Vistra to buy Cogentrix Energy in $4 billion deal, January 6, 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/vistra-to-buy-cogentrix-energy-in-4-billion-deal/ar-AA1THvGU) 4. [Bloomberg, Naureen S. Malik, Largest US Grid Seeks to Hold Data Center Power Auction in March, October 30, 2026](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-30/largest-us-grid-seeks-to-hold-data-center-power-auction-in-march) 5. [Zacks Equity Research via Yahoo Finance, Vistra Corp. (VST) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth, October 30, 2026](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/vistra-corp-vst-reports-next-130005755.html) 6. [Vistra Corp., quarterly revenue and income from SEC filings, retrieved October 31, 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001692819) 7. [Traders Union, Vistra stock falls 2.7% to $137.1, October 31, 2026](https://tradersunion.com/news/companies/show/4040143-vistra-stock-falls-2-7percent-to/) 8. [The Inference, Vistra redeems $1 billion of 8% preferred as the DOE offers up to $4.2 billion for power Meta already bought, October 16, 2026](https://theinference.org/article/vistra-redeems-1-billion-of-8-preferred-as-the-doe-offers-up-to-4-2-billion-for-power-meta-already-bought) --- Vistra closed its $4 billion Cogentrix buy: 5,496 megawatts, and the DOJ required a Maine plant divested — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/vistra-closed-its-4-billion-cogentrix-buy-5-496-megawatts-and-the-doj-required-a-maine-plant-divested