---
title: "Vistra guided 2027 EBITDA to $7.7 to $8.5 billion with 98% of output hedged before the Texas vote"
description: "Vistra's first 2027 outlook landed with about 98% of next year's output already hedged before the Texas election, and the market that had marked the stock down 16% on the governor's race paid up for a year a January inauguration cannot touch. The open fight starts in 2028, where the hedges run out."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Power"
published: 2026-11-06T19:15:15.081Z
modified: 2026-11-06T19:15:15.081Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/vistra-guided-2027-ebitda-to-7-7-to-8-5-billion-with-98-of-output-hedged-before-the-texas-vote
language: en
keywords: "Vistra, Power, Texas, Data Centers, Hedging, Nuclear"
---

# Vistra guided 2027 EBITDA to $7.7 to $8.5 billion with 98% of output hedged before the Texas vote

> Vistra's first 2027 outlook landed with about 98% of next year's output already hedged before the Texas election, and the market that had marked the stock down 16% on the governor's race paid up for a year a January inauguration cannot touch. The open fight starts in 2028, where the hedges run out.

[Vistra](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/vistra), the Texas merchant power generator, used [its third-quarter report](https://investor.vistracorp.com/news/default.aspx) to settle, for one year at least, the fight Texas started on November 3 [1][2]. Ongoing-operations adjusted EBITDA rose to $2.38 billion from $1.58 billion a year earlier, 2026 guidance was raised to $7.1–7.5 billion, and 2027 was guided for the first time at $7.7–8.5 billion, about 11% growth at the midpoint [1][2].

Revenue climbed 28% to $6.35 billion, short of the $6.79 billion analysts expected, and the stock still jumped about 8% [1][2]. The market was not buying the quarter; it was buying back a 2027 Vistra had already sold [1][2].

*Chart: **Revenue climbed 28% year over year to $6.35 billion and still missed estimates** Column chart of Vistra's quarterly revenue from the third quarter of 2023 to the third quarter of 2026, rising from $4.1 billion to a highlighted $6.35 billion*

*Quarterly revenue as reported in Vistra's SEC filings (Q3 2023 to Q2 2026); Q3 2026 from the company's third-quarter release. Analysts expected $6.79 billion. [1][9]*

## A governor can pause a data center, not a contract

Gina Hinojosa, the Democrat who ousted incumbent Republican Greg Abbott on a pledge to halt new data centers until the legislature passes protections, takes office in January [3][4]. [Vistra lost about 16% in the week after the vote](https://theinference.org/article/democrats-won-texas-on-a-data-center-pause-vistra-fell-as-much-as-15-5-and-coreweave-s-bonds-hit-79-5-cents) [1]. But a hedge is a contract: a governor arriving in January cannot reprice power sold in October, and by October 30 Vistra had [hedged about 98% of its expected 2027 output](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/vistra-soars-8-50-ebitda-144334241.html) [1].

Even after the jump the stock trades at about 14 times forward earnings, below its five-year average of 15 and up from 13 before the print [1]. The board added $1.5 billion to the buyback, and the shareholders who sold the political risk sold below the company's usual multiple [1].

*Chart: **2027 was sold before Texas voted** Hedged share of expected generation: Vistra 2027 at 98%, Talen 2027 at 70%, Talen 2028 at 35%*

*Share of expected generation hedged, as reported by the companies: Vistra as of October 30, 2026, Talen as of September 30, 2026. [1][5]*

## The exposed year is 2028, and Vistra has said so

Chief executive [Jim Burke](https://theinference.org/markets/people/jim-burke) said in August that data centers would drive load "particularly in 2028 and beyond," the years the hedges have rolled off [6]. The 5,500-megawatt Cogentrix gas fleet Vistra closed on October 30 skipped Texas entirely, as [we noted on November 2](https://theinference.org/article/vistra-s-5-500-megawatts-of-new-gas-skipped-texas-friday-s-report-prices-them), a choice that now looks well timed [7].

Peers carry the same question with less cover. [Talen Energy](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/talen-energy) [guides 2027 about 26% above 2026, on roughly 70% hedged](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/talen-energy-reports-third-quarter-2026-results-reaffirms-2026-guidance-and-introduces-2027-guidance-1036706452); Vistra guides about 11% growth on 98% [1][5]. [NRG Energy](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nrg-energy) trades at 9.5 times forward earnings [1]. Demand itself did not move on election night: ERCOT, the Texas grid operator, lists roughly 474 gigawatts of proposed projects in its interconnection queue, mostly large loads, and what the moratorium decides is whether they connect [6].

## The tests after the hedge wall are already on the calendar

Burke used Friday's call to announce a new 20-year contract at the Odessa gas plant: "we continue to see more of these opportunities" [1]. Comanche Peak, Vistra's nuclear plant, is contracted to deliver 1.2 gigawatts to [Amazon](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/amazon) from 2027 under a 20-year agreement and still has capacity to sell; whether more of it can be sold under the new governor is the cleaner test [1][6].

NRG is still finalizing a Texas gas plant of the same size for a hyperscaler, one of the giant cloud operators like Amazon, and reports next week; Texas regulators [moved toward approving that plant's air permit in October](https://www.northjersey.com/press-release/story/252035/tceq-issues-preliminary-decision-on-nrg-air-permit-for-maypearl-area-1-2-gw-data-center-power-plant/) despite the governor's pause and local opposition [1][8].

Vistra's hedges bought its shareholders a year. The first readings on the years after arrive in pieces: NRG's hyperscaler decision next week, then any Comanche Peak contract signed under Governor Hinojosa.

## Takeaway

Vistra priced 2027 before the Texas vote: $7.7–8.5 billion of EBITDA on about 98% hedged output, with 2026 raised to $7.1–7.5 billion. The open question is 2028, when the hedges roll off and new data-center contracts must clear Governor-elect Hinojosa's moratorium.

## Sources

1. [Yahoo Finance (TIKR), "Vistra Soars 8% on 50% EBITDA Jump and First 2027 Outlook: 'More of These Opportunities'", 6 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/vistra-soars-8-50-ebitda-144334241.html)
2. [Yahoo Finance, "Vistra Shares Rise 5% as Q3 Profit Surges Despite Revenue Miss, Raises 2026 Outlook", 6 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/vistra-shares-rise-5-q3-131336863.html)
3. [Reuters (via MSN), "Texas data centers face uncertain future after Hinojosa wins governor's race", 4 November 2026](https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/general/texas-data-centers-face-uncertain-future-after-hinojosa-wins-governor-s-race/ar-AA2gKRSS)
4. [Anadolu Agency, "Texas governor-elect vows data-center restrictions as AI stocks plunge", 6 November 2026](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/texas-governor-elect-vows-data-center-restrictions-as-ai-stocks-plunge/4113728)
5. [Talen Energy third quarter 2026 press release (GlobeNewswire via Markets Insider), 3 November 2026](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/talen-energy-reports-third-quarter-2026-results-reaffirms-2026-guidance-and-introduces-2027-guidance-1036706452)
6. [Utility Dive, "Vistra supports Texas data center pause, execs say", 10 August 2026](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/vistra-texas-data-center-pause-comanche-amazon-earnings/827434/)
7. [Vistra Corp. investor relations, news releases (Cogentrix acquisition completed 30 October 2026; third quarter 2026 results posted 6 November 2026)](https://investor.vistracorp.com/news/default.aspx)
8. [No Maypearl Data Center release (EIN Presswire via NorthJersey.com), "TCEQ Issues Preliminary Decision on NRG Air Permit for Maypearl-Area 1.2 GW Data Center Power Plant", 12 October 2026](https://www.northjersey.com/press-release/story/252035/tceq-issues-preliminary-decision-on-nrg-air-permit-for-maypearl-area-1-2-gw-data-center-power-plant/)
9. [Vistra, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 6 November 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001692819)


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Vistra guided 2027 EBITDA to $7.7 to $8.5 billion with 98% of output hedged before the Texas vote — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/vistra-guided-2027-ebitda-to-7-7-to-8-5-billion-with-98-of-output-hedged-before-the-texas-vote