--- title: "Vistra's 5,500 megawatts of new gas skipped Texas. Friday's report prices them." description: "The Cogentrix plants Vistra closed on October 30 landed almost entirely in PJM and New England, not ERCOT. Friday's guidance is the first test of whether the $4 billion deal still pays what it promised." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Power" published: 2026-11-02T17:07:24.299Z modified: 2026-11-02T17:07:24.299Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/vistra-s-5-500-megawatts-of-new-gas-skipped-texas-friday-s-report-prices-them language: en keywords: "Vistra, Natural Gas, PJM, New England, Data Centers, Guidance" --- # Vistra's 5,500 megawatts of new gas skipped Texas. Friday's report prices them. > The Cogentrix plants Vistra closed on October 30 landed almost entirely in PJM and New England, not ERCOT. Friday's guidance is the first test of whether the $4 billion deal still pays what it promised. [Vistra](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/vistra) closed its $4 billion purchase of Cogentrix on October 30, ten natural gas plants bought from Quantum Capital Group, a private equity firm, taking the fleet to nearly 50,000 megawatts [1][2]. The market read the deal as a fix for weak Texas power prices, which is why the company's 2027 profit outlook sits at the low end of its range ahead of Friday's report [2]. The plant list published with the closing says otherwise: only one of the ten plants is in Texas. The rest went to PJM and ISO New England, the grid operator for the six New England states, where management said in August that prices were strengthening, while weak Texas forward prices weigh on the 2027 outlook [2]. ## The megawatts went where capacity is scarce The two biggest prizes are the twin Patriot and Hamilton-Liberty combined-cycle plants in Pennsylvania, 881 megawatts each, both running since 2016 [1][2]. PJM, the mid-Atlantic and Midwest grid, took 3,163 megawatts of the deal and ISO New England 1,750; the single Texas plant, Altura, is 583 [2]. *Chart: **All but 583 MW of the Cogentrix fleet landed outside Texas** A single bar splitting the 5,496 MW Cogentrix fleet into PJM, ISO New England and ERCOT.* *Megawatts of capacity by market for the 10 natural gas plants Vistra acquired from Cogentrix, closed October 30, 2026. Total 5,496 MW. Plant list and capacities from the acquisition coverage [1]; PJM and ISO New England market totals from Yahoo Finance/TIKR [2]. [1][2]* ## The New England third comes with a watchdog As we reported Saturday, [the Justice Department said on October 30](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-departments-statement-its-investigation-vistras-acquisition-cogentrix) it remains concerned the combined fleet could withhold power in ISO New England even after Vistra sold its Casco Bay plant [3]. Vistra and Cogentrix then chose on their own to sell the Rumford plant in Maine, the 271-megawatt unit, and the Division says it will keep monitoring that sale; FERC approved the deal without conditions [3]. Nothing was imposed, but roughly a third of the new megawatts now operate under a regulator's eye. ## Buying beats building Vistra's chief executive [Jim Burke](https://theinference.org/markets/people/jim-burke) said in August that equipment prices have doubled, if not tripled, and that a build price acceptable a year or two ago no longer is [2]. Plants already running skip that bill. Vistra paid about 7.25 times the plants' expected 2027 EBITDA against roughly 9 times its own multiple, and by the company's January math that implies about $550 million of 2027 EBITDA from Cogentrix [2]. ## Where the AI power goes in the meantime Data centers are the reason these eastern markets are tight. PJM's market monitor calls data center load growth the primary driver of record demand and high prices [6], and [the grid's 2028-29 capacity auction](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/pjm-capacity-prices-hit-price-095725978.html) cleared at its $325 per megawatt-day price cap with a reserve shortfall [5]. Vistra's direct AI supply is nuclear: [up to 1,200 megawatts from Comanche Peak for Amazon Web Services](https://voltgridnews.com/story/vistra-s-comanche-peak-ppa-with-aws-up-to-1-200-mw-ramp-by-2032), first deliveries targeted in late 2027 and the full amount only by 2032 [4]. Until [Amazon](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/amazon)'s data center beside the plant is connected to the grid, the gas fleet carries the growth. ## Friday is the test November 6 guidance puts Cogentrix inside the numbers for the first time, against [a street bar of about $2.1 billion of third-quarter EBITDA](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/vistra-added-5-500-mw-132322472.html) [2]. A 2027 contribution near $550 million holds the cheap-multiple case; well below it, soft prices have already eaten the deal [2]. Shares closed at $138.37 on the deal day against a street target near $205 [2]. The economics say Vistra bought the right scarce asset: existing capacity in markets where data centers have nowhere else to go. The risk to watch is not the Texas cycle but New England, where regulators can cap what the fleet earns, and Friday's Cogentrix number shows which story the market is pricing. ## Takeaway Only 583 of Cogentrix's 5,496 megawatts sit in Texas; the rest went to PJM and New England, where data-center demand has tightened capacity markets. Friday's November 6 report is the first test of the $550 million 2027 EBITDA the $4 billion deal promised. ## Sources 1. [Power Technology via Yahoo Finance, Vistra acquires Cogentrix, adding 5.5GW of natural gas capacity, 2 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vistra-acquires-cogentrix-adding-5-081801944.html) 2. [Yahoo Finance/TIKR, Vistra Added 5,500 MW of Gas Plants, Most of Them Outside Texas. Here's What That Means for Its November 6 Report, 2 November 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/vistra-added-5-500-mw-132322472.html) 3. [U.S. Department of Justice, Justice Department's Statement on Its Investigation of Vistra's Acquisition of Cogentrix, 30 October 2026](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-departments-statement-its-investigation-vistras-acquisition-cogentrix) 4. [Voltgrid News, Vistra's Comanche Peak PPA With AWS: Up to 1,200 MW, Ramp by 2032, 2026](https://voltgridnews.com/story/vistra-s-comanche-peak-ppa-with-aws-up-to-1-200-mw-ramp-by-2032) 5. [Utility Dive via Yahoo Finance, PJM capacity prices hit price cap, reserve shortfall grows, 15 July 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/pjm-capacity-prices-hit-price-095725978.html) 6. [24/7 Wall St., The AI Boom's Hidden Cost: Wholesale Prices Are Surging 41% in America's Largest Electricity Market, 10 October 2026](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/10/the-ai-booms-hidden-cost-wholesale-prices-are-surging-41-in-americas-largest-electricity-market-2/) --- Vistra's 5,500 megawatts of new gas skipped Texas. Friday's report prices them. — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/vistra-s-5-500-megawatts-of-new-gas-skipped-texas-friday-s-report-prices-them