--- title: "Wall Street keeps cutting Sempra while Petrobras commits for 20 years" description: "Barclays lowered its Sempra target to $90 from $103, the third cut in under a month, weeks after Petrobras signed a 20-year deal for Port Arthur Phase 2 capacity. The argument is over what US gas costs in 2030, when those trains start." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Power" published: 2026-10-12T17:11:54.041Z modified: 2026-10-12T17:11:54.041Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/wall-street-keeps-cutting-sempra-while-petrobras-commits-for-20-years language: en keywords: "Sempra, LNG, Petrobras, Analyst Ratings, Natural Gas" --- # Wall Street keeps cutting Sempra while Petrobras commits for 20 years > Barclays lowered its Sempra target to $90 from $103, the third cut in under a month, weeks after Petrobras signed a 20-year deal for Port Arthur Phase 2 capacity. The argument is over what US gas costs in 2030, when those trains start. ## The third cut in under a month [Barclays took its Sempra price target to $90 from $103 on October 12](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/barclays-adjusts-price-target-on-sempra-to-90-from-103-ce785ddcd18dfe22), the third reduction since mid-September [1]. [Morgan Stanley](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/morgan-stanley) moved to $100 from $104 on September 18, Ladenburg Thalmann to $89.50 from $98 on September 22, and Scotiabank started coverage on September 29 at $83, the low mark among them [1]. The shares closed at $81.34 on October 9, down 7.87% since January 1, against an average analyst target of $99.75 [1]. *Chart: **Every Sempra price-target move since September 18 has been downward** Paired bars showing three Sempra price target revisions between September 18 and October 12, 2026: Morgan Stanley from $104 to $100, Ladenburg Thalmann from $98 to $89.50, and Barclays from $103 to $90.* *Analyst price targets for Sempra (NYSE: SRE) before and after each revision, in US dollars, September to October 2026. Source: MT Newswires via MarketScreener, October 12, 2026. [1]* *Chart: **Barclays sits between Scotiabank's $83 low and Morgan Stanley's $100 high** Column chart of the four current Sempra price targets: Scotiabank $83, Ladenburg Thalmann $89.50, Barclays $90, Morgan Stanley $100.* *Current Sempra price targets after each revision, in US dollars, September to October 2026. The shares closed at $81.34 on October 9, below all four. Source: MT Newswires via MarketScreener, October 12, 2026. [1]* ## A 20-year buyer arrived days before the cuts The retreat began four days after news that points the other way. On September 14, Sempra Infrastructure [signed a 20-year sales and purchase agreement with Petrobras](https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-newswire/20260914la47263/sempra-infrastructure-announces-long-term-lng-supply-agreement-with-petrobras) for roughly 800,000 tonnes of LNG a year from Port Arthur Phase 2 in Jefferson County, Texas, the first South American buyer in its portfolio [2]. Phase 2 took final investment decision in September 2025 and adds two trains of about 13 Mtpa, due online in 2030 and 2031; [commissioning at Phase 1 is advancing toward a start at or near the end of 2027](https://lngjournal.com/index.php/latest-news-mainmenu-47/item/117403-sempra-advances-port-arthur-commissioning-prior-to-2027-start-up) [2][3]. ## The contract covers 6% of the plant Petrobras accounts for about 6.2% of Phase 2 capacity, and the pricing formula was not disclosed [4]. The build was pegged near $12 billion, plus $2 billion of shared facilities [4]. [Fulcrum LNG chief executive Jesus Bronchalo named the risk on October 6](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/us-lng-may-lose-competitive-184317182.html): "Henry Hub is going to get to the point where it becomes too expensive or you are not going to be too competitive" [5]. Sempra Infrastructure's own general counsel, Julie Mayo, said expansion is now funded with private equity funds rather than external loans [5]. Sempra is [selling a 45% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners to KKR affiliates](https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-newswire/20260820la30795/sempra-advances-strategic-capital-recycling-program-with-sale-of-ecogas) and keeping 25%, inside a $65 billion five-year plan that directs more than 95% of spending to regulated utilities [6]. ## Today's gas market says otherwise [Henry Hub averaged $2.93 per million Btu from June through August](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/natural-gas-prices-down-solar-120000973.html), about 6% below a year earlier, while European and Asian LNG benchmarks sat near $25.40 in September [7]. The warning prices 2030 gas, not this winter's. ## November 4 is the tell [Second-quarter adjusted EPS rose to $1.16 from $0.89](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/sempra-announced-lng-deal-as-truist-set-usd-96-target-for-sempra-stock/70279184), and full-year guidance of $4.80 to $5.30 held [8]. The next reading lands on November 4 [8]. Either the contract book is the number, or the feedstock bill is. ## Takeaway Wall Street's third Sempra price-target cut in under a month is a bet on 2030 gas prices, not on the 20-year Petrobras contract signed for Port Arthur Phase 2; the November 4 earnings report settles which side is right. ## Sources 1. [MT Newswires via MarketScreener, "Barclays Adjusts Price Target on Sempra to $90 From $103", 12 October 2026](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/barclays-adjusts-price-target-on-sempra-to-90-from-103-ce785ddcd18dfe22) 2. [Sempra Infrastructure press release via PR Newswire (Morningstar), "Sempra Infrastructure Announces Long-Term LNG Supply Agreement with Petrobras", 14 September 2026](https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-newswire/20260914la47263/sempra-infrastructure-announces-long-term-lng-supply-agreement-with-petrobras) 3. [LNG Journal, "Sempra advances Port Arthur commissioning prior to 2027 start up", 8 October 2026](https://lngjournal.com/index.php/latest-news-mainmenu-47/item/117403-sempra-advances-port-arthur-commissioning-prior-to-2027-start-up) 4. [Insider Monkey via Yahoo Finance, "Sempra (SRE) Adds a 20-Year LNG Agreement. How Much Commercial Risk Does it Remove?", 20 September 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/sempra-sre-adds-20-lng-173718056.html) 5. [Investing.com via Yahoo Finance, "US LNG may lose competitive edge as gas prices climb, Fulcrum CEO says", 6 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/us-lng-may-lose-competitive-184317182.html) 6. [Sempra press release via PR Newswire (Morningstar), "Sempra Advances Strategic Capital Recycling Program with Sale of Ecogas", 20 August 2026](https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-newswire/20260820la30795/sempra-advances-strategic-capital-recycling-program-with-sale-of-ecogas) 7. [The Center Square via Yahoo Finance, "Natural gas prices down as solar power generation jumps 22%", 2 October 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/natural-gas-prices-down-solar-120000973.html) 8. [ad-hoc-news, "Sempra announced LNG deal as Truist set USD 96 target for Sempra stock", 10 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/sempra-announced-lng-deal-as-truist-set-usd-96-target-for-sempra-stock/70279184) --- Wall Street keeps cutting Sempra while Petrobras commits for 20 years — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/wall-street-keeps-cutting-sempra-while-petrobras-commits-for-20-years