---
title: "West Virginia will hear whether data-center power demand is overstated, in a fight over NextEra's line"
description: "A West Virginia hearing opening October 26 will put data-center load forecasts that PJM does not independently validate under oath in a fight over billions in transmission wire. The same doubt already prices NextEra's stock, its October 21 earnings and the $67 billion Dominion merger."
publisher: "The Inference"
section: "Energy"
published: 2026-10-09T17:27:27.923Z
modified: 2026-10-09T17:27:27.923Z
canonical: https://theinference.org/article/west-virginia-will-hear-whether-data-center-power-demand-is-overstated-in-a-fight-over-nextera-s-line
language: en
keywords: "Energy, Power, Data Centers, Utilities, Regulation"
---

# West Virginia will hear whether data-center power demand is overstated, in a fight over NextEra's line

> A West Virginia hearing opening October 26 will put data-center load forecasts that PJM does not independently validate under oath in a fight over billions in transmission wire. The same doubt already prices NextEra's stock, its October 21 earnings and the $67 billion Dominion merger.

## The charge: billions in wire priced off forecasts nobody checks

On October 26, 2026, the West Virginia Public Service Commission [opens an evidentiary hearing on the MidAtlantic Resiliency Link](https://www.dominionpost.com/2026/10/08/psc-receives-testimony-for-and-against-marl-project-as-hearing-date-approaches/), [NextEra](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nextera-energy)'s transmission line across the state into Virginia [1]. The paper is lopsided: 341 pages of rebuttal testimony from 10 NextEra officials against 29 pages from Anthony Campbell, president of West Virginians Against Transmission Injustice [1]. Campbell argues that cancellations, withdrawals and delays of planned data-center projects mean the forecast load may be overstated, and the commission's own question concedes the soft spot: [PJM does not independently validate load forecasts](https://theinference.org/article/north-carolina-kills-duke-s-584m-gas-plant-over-ai-demand-it-can-t-verify) [1].

The answer is priced far beyond Charleston. NextEra carries a $162.5 billion market value, reports third-quarter results on October 21, and has a $67 billion [Dominion](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/dominion-energy) merger waiting on a Virginia docket [4][5].

## The skeptics' receipts: cancellations are on the record

Campbell quoted a FERC commissioner who tied "a clearer picture of which projects will materialize" to deciding who should bear the costs of that growth [1]. The world outside the docket supplies exhibits. [Goldman Sachs](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/goldman-sachs) [said in May that only 50 to 60 percent of planned data-center capacity will come online in the next two years](https://www.constructiondive.com/news/data-center-boom-continues-projects-face-obstacles/831742/) [2]. Local opposition killed at least 20 proposed data centers in the first quarter of 2026, the most of any quarter on record [2].

## NextEra's receipts: violations by 2027

Ryan Colley, NextEra's executive director for development, testified that PJM has found reliability violations arriving "as soon as 2027-28" that risk "system collapse and blackouts" [1]. PJM's 2030 summer peak forecast rose nearly 16 percent across three forecast cycles, he said, evidence that regional needs keep compounding rather than receding [1].

A study commissioned by the Pennsylvania PUC lands on NextEra's side, [modeling PJM's 2030 loss-of-load expectation at six to 100 times its planning criterion](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjms-reliability-could-start-failing-by-2030-if-data-center-growth-continu/830405/), largely from data-center additions; PJM itself agrees demand is growing faster than generation [3]. NextEra adds local math: $133 million in property taxes over the project's life, $65 million to landowners, 200 to 300 construction jobs [1].

## Who pays if the load never shows

Data-center developers have taken a Ratepayer Protection Pledge, which PJM cites as shielding households from the reliability risks and cost increases of building for them [3]. Campbell's filing ties verified load data to who should bear the costs of growth [1]. If the megawatts never arrive, the line stays, and PJM ratepayers across the region carry the cost of wire built for load that never came.

## The doubt is priced, both ways

Mizuho [cut its NextEra target to $80 from $95 on October 6](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/mizuho-cuts-target-for-nextera-energy-stock-from-usd-95-00-to-usd-80-00/70255984), kept a neutral rating, and now sits at the bottom of the street's targets; the stock [closed at $77.88 against a 52-week high of $98.75](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/NEE/) [4][8]. The rest of the street has not followed: 18 Buy ratings against five Holds, an average target of $98.95 [4][8]. [Second-quarter revenue of $7.53 billion](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000753308) grew 12.4 percent yet missed the $8.11 billion consensus [4]. Third-quarter results land on October 21 [4].

*Chart: **Mizuho's $80 target sits at the bottom of a street still at $98.95** Bars chart comparing NextEra's closing price with Mizuho's $80 target, the street's $98.95 average and the 52-week high of $98.75*

*Dollars per share. Closing price and 52-week high as of October 2026; Mizuho target cut from $95 on October 6; street average of 23 analysts per MarketBeat. Sources: ad-hoc-news.de, MarketBeat. [4][8]*

*Chart: **NextEra revenue has grown year over year for six straight quarters** Column chart of NextEra Energy quarterly revenue from Q3 2024 through Q2 2026 in billions of US dollars*

*Quarterly revenue in USD billions as reported in NextEra's SEC filings; consensus figure per MarketBeat, October 2026. [4][7]*

## The verdict watch

Virginia then weighs the same question inside the $67 billion Dominion merger: [evidentiary hearing from November 17](https://www.dailypress.com/2026/10/08/virginias-first-dominion-nextera-merger-hearing-brings-up-opposition-support-and-questions/), decision due by January 11, more than 50 formal parties including Governor Abigail Spanberger, and Lieutenant Governor Ghazala Hashmi, [the first statewide official to formally oppose](https://virginiamercury.com/2026/10/07/after-statewide-tour-virginia-lt-gov-hashmi-officially-opposes-dominion-nextera-merger/), on the record against it [5][6]. The PSC rules on the line by March 6, 2027 [1]. In Charleston, the claim that AI demand is overstated stops being a take and becomes testimony.

## Takeaway

From October 26, a West Virginia hearing puts unvalidated data-center load forecasts under oath, and the verdict prices NextEra's stock, its October 21 earnings and the $67 billion Dominion merger.

## Sources

1. [The Dominion Post, PSC receives testimony for and against MARL project as hearing date approaches, 8 October 2026](https://www.dominionpost.com/2026/10/08/psc-receives-testimony-for-and-against-marl-project-as-hearing-date-approaches/)
2. [Construction Dive, The data center boom continues apace, but projects face mounting obstacles, 30 September 2026](https://www.constructiondive.com/news/data-center-boom-continues-projects-face-obstacles/831742/)
3. [Utility Dive, PJM faces 2030 reliability crisis if data center load growth continues: report, 15 September 2026](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjms-reliability-could-start-failing-by-2030-if-data-center-growth-continu/830405/)
4. [ad-hoc-news.de, Mizuho cuts target for NextEra Energy stock from USD 95.00 to USD 80.00, 7 October 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/corporate-news/mizuho-cuts-target-for-nextera-energy-stock-from-usd-95-00-to-usd-80-00/70255984)
5. [Daily Press, Virginia's first Dominion-NextEra merger hearing brings up opposition, support and questions, 8 October 2026](https://www.dailypress.com/2026/10/08/virginias-first-dominion-nextera-merger-hearing-brings-up-opposition-support-and-questions/)
6. [Virginia Mercury, After statewide tour, Virginia Lt. Gov. Hashmi officially opposes Dominion-NextEra merger, 7 October 2026](https://virginiamercury.com/2026/10/07/after-statewide-tour-virginia-lt-gov-hashmi-officially-opposes-dominion-nextera-merger/)
7. [NextEra Energy, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 9 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000753308)
8. [MarketBeat, NextEra Energy (NEE) Stock Price, News & Analysis, retrieved 9 October 2026](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/NEE/)


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West Virginia will hear whether data-center power demand is overstated, in a fight over NextEra's line — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/west-virginia-will-hear-whether-data-center-power-demand-is-overstated-in-a-fight-over-nextera-s-line