--- title: "Zevenbergen cut its nLight stake 72.9% while insiders sold $72.8 million; the street's target is $86.50" description: "Wall Street's $86.50 consensus target sits at more than double the $38.31 close, and insiders have sold nLight stock for twelve straight months without a single buy. The first of the Q3 fund filings shows a growth house walking." publisher: "The Inference" section: "Money" published: 2026-10-09T13:24:18.525Z modified: 2026-10-09T13:24:18.525Z canonical: https://theinference.org/article/zevenbergen-cut-its-nlight-stake-72-9-while-insiders-sold-72-8-million-the-street-s-target-is-86-50 language: en keywords: "13F, Insider Selling, Defense, Analyst Targets, Semiconductors" --- # Zevenbergen cut its nLight stake 72.9% while insiders sold $72.8 million; the street's target is $86.50 > Wall Street's $86.50 consensus target sits at more than double the $38.31 close, and insiders have sold nLight stock for twelve straight months without a single buy. The first of the Q3 fund filings shows a growth house walking. ## The first Q3 print is a 72.9% exit by a growth house Zevenbergen Capital Investments, the Edmonds, Washington adviser [founded in 1987](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/02/zevenbergen-capital-investments-fa-100.html) that runs high-growth technology strategies and [now manages ETFs for Virtus](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/virtus-introduces-two-actively-managed-201500545.html), sold 244,974 [nLight shares](https://theinference.org/markets/companies/nlight) in the third quarter and kept 91,061, about $3.55 million, or 0.16% of the company [1][3][4]. [The 13F surfaced on October 8, 2026](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-nlight-lasr-holdings-decreased-by-zevenbergen-capital-investments-llc-2026-10-08/), the day the stock fell 3.9% to $38.31 [1][2]. The other third-quarter filings listed so far show two small buyers adding shares; Zevenbergen's cut is the only reduction among them [1]. ## Insiders moved $72.8 million, every trade a sale Company insiders sold 616,697 shares for $27.0 million over three months, and $72.8 million over twelve months with no purchases on record, roughly 3.3% of the $2.21 billion market value [1][2]. Two caveats belong in print: chief accounting officer James Nias's 1,025-share sale on September 3, 2026, covered tax withholding on vesting awards, and director Geoffrey Moore's 4,452-share sale on September 15, 2026, ran under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan [1]. The signal is the aggregate: [twelve months of selling and not one buy](https://theinference.org/article/aeluma-s-ceo-sold-stock-every-month-since-march-while-pitching-a-1-8-trillion-ai-market) [2]. ## The street pays $86.50 for $44 million of booked contract Northcoast Research set a $75 Buy target on October 7, 2026, and twelve analysts average a Moderate Buy at $86.50 against the $38.31 close [1]. Their asset is [the Joint Laser Weapon System award announced on July 9, 2026](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260709375006/en/nLIGHT-Awarded-%24627-Million-Joint-Laser-Weapon-System-JLWS-Contract): $44 million booked against a ceiling of up to $627 million, half of a Pentagon pair with Lockheed Martin worth up to $847 million in total [5][6]. [Shares jumped about 30% on the announcement](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4612676-nlight-surges-30-after-laser-weapon-system-contract-from-pentagon); the stock's twelve-month range now runs $28.05 to $86.95 [1][6]. The business underneath is genuinely growing: revenue rose in five of the past six quarters, from $51.7 million in Q1 2025 to a record $82.6 million in Q2 2026, and Q2 EPS of $0.15 beat by a cent [1][7]. [Aerospace and defense revenue jumped 68% year over year](https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9116518/nlight-inc-lasr-stock-down-39-but-still-overvalued-gf-score-62100) to $55.1 million in Q1 2026 [8]. GuruFocus still models the stock at $15.79 against 60.8x forward earnings, calling it unprofitable and cash-flow negative [2]. *Chart: **Record revenue every year, but operating income has not cleared zero in eight quarters** Line chart of nLight quarterly revenue and operating income from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026: revenue climbs from $56.1 million to a record $82.6 million while operating income stays negative.* *Quarterly revenue and operating income in US dollars, from nLIGHT's SEC filings, Q3 2024 through Q2 2026. Source: nLIGHT quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 9 October 2026. [7]* *Chart: **The nLight disagreement in one ladder: $15.79 modeled, $38.31 traded, $86.50 targeted** Bar chart comparing per-share values for nLight: GuruFocus model value $15.79, the October 8, 2026, close $38.31, Northcoast's $75 target, the $86.50 consensus target, and the $86.95 52-week high.* *Per-share values in US dollars. Model value and analyst targets are estimates, not market prices; close and 52-week high are market data as of October 8, 2026. Sources: MarketBeat and GuruFocus, October 8, 2026. [1][2]* ## Q3 earnings will price the $583 million question Both camps trade the same number: $583 million of unbooked ceiling sitting on top of the $44 million awarded [5]. The consensus target needs those options converting into orders; the sellers have priced the chance they never do [2]. On the three-month numbers, insider sales averaged roughly $44 a share on the way out, about half the $86.50 the street expects [1]. On that record the trade is to avoid or fade LASR into the Q3 print rather than pay consensus math for unbooked ceiling. The quarter is already guided softer: Seeking Alpha's news page carries the company's [forecast of $63–73 million in Q3 revenue](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/nebenwerte/nlight-stock-gains-on-strong-2026-revenue-growth-and-defense-demand/70136599), with $17 million of shipments shifting on China-linked supply delays [6]. Two prints decide it: the Q3 report, where JLWS conversion has to show up in backlog, and the remaining 13Fs, which will show whether Zevenbergen was early or alone. ## Takeaway The first Q3 13F shows Zevenbergen cutting its nLight stake 72.9%, while insiders have sold $72.8 million over twelve months without one buy. The $86.50 consensus target rests on $583 million of unbooked JLWS ceiling; the trade is to wait for the Q3 backlog before paying for it. ## Sources 1. [MarketBeat, "nLight $LASR Holdings Decreased by Zevenbergen Capital Investments LLC", 8 October 2026](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-nlight-lasr-holdings-decreased-by-zevenbergen-capital-investments-llc-2026-10-08/) 2. [GuruFocus, "nLight Inc (LASR) Stock Down 3.9% but Still Overvalued, GF Score: 62/100", 8 October 2026](https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9116518/nlight-inc-lasr-stock-down-39-but-still-overvalued-gf-score-62100) 3. [Virtus Investment Partners via Yahoo Finance, "Virtus Introduces Two Actively Managed ETFs from Zevenbergen", 17 August 2026](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/virtus-introduces-two-actively-managed-201500545.html) 4. [CNBC, "27. Zevenbergen Capital Investments", Financial Advisor 100 2024, 2 October 2024](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/02/zevenbergen-capital-investments-fa-100.html) 5. [Business Wire, "nLIGHT Awarded $627 Million Joint Laser Weapon System (JLWS) Contract", 9 July 2026](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260709375006/en/nLIGHT-Awarded-%24627-Million-Joint-Laser-Weapon-System-JLWS-Contract) 6. [Seeking Alpha, "nLight surges 30% after laser weapon system contract from Pentagon", 9 July 2026](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4612676-nlight-surges-30-after-laser-weapon-system-contract-from-pentagon) 7. [nLIGHT, quarterly figures from its SEC filings, retrieved 9 October 2026](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001124796) 8. [ad-hoc-news (citing Stock Titan), "nLIGHT stock gains on strong 2026 revenue growth and defense demand", 20 September 2026](https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/nebenwerte/nlight-stock-gains-on-strong-2026-revenue-growth-and-defense-demand/70136599) --- Zevenbergen cut its nLight stake 72.9% while insiders sold $72.8 million; the street's target is $86.50 — The Inference. Canonical: https://theinference.org/article/zevenbergen-cut-its-nlight-stake-72-9-while-insiders-sold-72-8-million-the-street-s-target-is-86-50