Akamai Signed an $11.6 Billion Deal With a Customer That Lost $42 Billion Last Year
Akamai will spend $5.5 billion up front on a $11.6 billion, seven-year Anthropic commitment. The counterparty behind that signature lost $42 billion last year and holds $518 billion of promises it plans to fund with a $2 trillion IPO.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
The largest contract in Akamai's history, signed with a customer that lost $42 billion
Akamai announced the biggest deal in its history on 24 September: Anthropic committed to $11.6 billion of cloud capacity over seven years, expandable to roughly $20 billion, against a Cloud Infrastructure Services line that billed $99 million last quarter 12. Shares rose as much as 17% after hours 3, and Jim Cramer told viewers the partnership was "basically free" at under 16 times earnings 4.
Akamai spends years before it collects
None of it touches 2026 revenue 1. Akamai expects to spend about $5.5 billion on equipment for the initial commitment, $1.7 billion of it this year to pre-purchase memory 15. First revenue, $150 million to $300 million, arrives in the second half of 2027, building to a $1.7 billion annual pace by the end of 2028 3. The strain already shows: second-quarter capex of $347 million exceeded operating cash flow of $326 million, and a $410 million buyback topped both 2.
Akamai's capex is at a two-year high, and the $5.5 billion Anthropic build has barely begun
- Operating cash flow
- Capital expenditure
Data
| Operating cash flow | Capital expenditure | |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 '24 | $0.39B | $0.19B |
| Q4 '24 | $0.34B | $0.16B |
| Q1 '25 | $0.25B | $0.2B |
| Q2 '25 | $0.46B | $0.22B |
| Q3 '25 | $0.44B | $0.2B |
| Q4 '25 | $0.37B | $0.21B |
| Q1 '26 | $0.31B | $0.19B |
| Q2 '26 | $0.33B | $0.23B |
Whose balance sheet backs "non-cancelable"
Anthropic's leaked IPO prospectus prices the counterparty: a $42 billion net loss in 2025, an operating loss above $8 billion, and $518 billion of infrastructure commitments, roughly 80% of them non-cancelable or payable regardless of usage, against $20.28 billion of cash 67. "Non-cancelable is only as strong as the balance sheet behind the signature," said Stephen Sopko of HyperFrame Research 7. Akamai's own filing adds that the commitment depends on meeting delivery and service-availability requirements, with exit rights for both sides 3.
Akamai holds the smallest slice of Anthropic's half-trillion in commitments
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Broadcom (equipment leases) | $161.2B |
| $111.1B | |
| Amazon | $110B |
| xAI (Nvidia capacity) (estimate) | $84.5B |
| Microsoft | $31.4B |
| Akamai | $11.6B |
Akamai paid its customer to sign
To close, Akamai issued Anthropic a warrant on 7.7 million shares, about 5% of the company, at $111.33, with roughly 2% vesting now and each additional $3 billion of spending unlocking another 1% 1. It is the first warrant Akamai has attached to a cloud deal 3. Anthropic, for its part, buys compute outside Amazon and Google, which routed 47% of its 2025 sales and collect 60% of its receivables 8.
The bull case has receipts too
Delivery revenue fell 6% last quarter while cloud infrastructure grew 39%, and analysts see that line reaching $471 million this year and $2.8 billion by 2030, about 40% of group revenue 25. The stock is up 22% for the year after surrendering most of the deal pop 4.
The tell is the IPO
Anthropic's listing, expected after November's midterms at a valuation above $2 trillion, is what funds the promises 68. Until it prices, Akamai holders own the concrete and the counterparty. The capex is committed. The customer is not.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
