IDC counted almost 25,000 humanoids; two-thirds still do demos, not work
The first half drew $740 million of humanoid revenue at an average $29,600 a robot, down from $37,000 a year earlier. Two-thirds of demand is still labs, stages and state data centers, and the listed volume names, Unitree and UBTECH, are well off their highs.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Three hundred robots clock in at a Chinese theme park
At Chimelong Spaceship Park in Hengqin, more than 300 AgiBot robots play table tennis, perform tai chi and check guests into hotel rooms on open walkways, the largest public humanoid deployment anywhere, with a technical team standing by 12. The robot anchoring the 24 September launch was AgiBot's 20,000th off the line 2. The half-year count that prices the listed names, Unitree and UBTECH, landed 30 September 3.
The third count is the biggest
IDC's first-half tally, the third and largest estimate of the half, puts global shipments at almost 25,000 robots, up 432.1% year on year, on $740 million of revenue, up 322.7% 3. The implied average price fell to about $29,600 a robot, from about $37,000 a year earlier 3. Chinese vendors built more than 95% of the fleet, and Chinese buyers took 78% of it, more than 19,000 units 34.
Two-thirds of the demand is still a demonstration
Research and education, performances and exhibitions, and government data centers absorbed 69% of first-half shipments, down from 83.8% for all of 2025 3. A caveat rides the count: much of the Chinese buying likely traces to a single customer, the state and its robot training centers 3. The volume is real; the work, mostly, is not.
AgiBot out-shipped the next three Chinese makers combined
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| AgiBot (estimate) | 8,600 units |
| Unitree (estimate) | 5,000 units |
| Booster Robotics (estimate) | 1,000 units |
| UBTECH (estimate) | 900 units |
| Leju Robot (estimate) | 460 units |
| Galbot (estimate) | 400 units |
| Astribot (estimate) | 340 units |
| Fourier Intelligence (estimate) | 320 units |
| Galaxea AI (estimate) | 260 units |
The listed volume is already correcting
UBTECH (09880.HK) sold 921 full-size humanoids in the half, up 1,946.7%, lifted humanoid revenue 1,445% to 590 million yuan, and still lost 339 million yuan 5. Unitree (688836.SH) raised about $907 million in its 19 August STAR Market debut and closed the first day up 460%, near a $50.9 billion value 6. Unitree has since nearly halved, to 459.65 yuan, and UBTECH is down more than 40% this year 7.
Prices are falling and the forecast went up
The counterargument is the direction of travel. Demo demand fell almost 15 points in six months, average prices dropped a fifth, and IDC raised its 2030 forecast about 50%, to more than 750,000 units, a number that requires shipments to double every year 34.
The West builds, and does not ship
Tesla now builds several hundred Optimus a week, ten times its second-quarter pace, and keeps most units for internal testing and its own factories 8. It intends to lease rather than sell to a short list of customers, a route to market The Inference traced on 30 September to hands Tesla cannot yet build reliably at volume 8.
Figure AI, the only US maker in IDC's top ten, shows a few dozen units 3. That sits against the company's own April claim of roughly 240 robots delivered that month, a gap IDC's counting of only paying external customers explains 3.
The number to watch is the non-demo share
Beijing's regulator has set three criteria for humanoid IPOs, sustainable orders, narrowing losses and core technology, with at least two dozen companies filed in Hong Kong 7.
The count splits the sector plainly: the listed volume names, Unitree and UBTECH, own the units shipping today, and the Western privates own the narrative while shipping almost nothing 3. The next reading is the full-year version of this mix, and until the non-demo share passes half, the sector's price is a forecast, not a business.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
