Sequoia Marks Kalshi at $40 Billion While Cboe Sells the Same Trade Through the SEC
Kalshi is reportedly near a $1 billion round at a $40 billion valuation, eight times its October 2025 mark and four days after a federal appeals court let two states treat its sports contracts as gambling. The same week, Cboe and Robinhood moved the same trade inside the SEC's perimeter.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
The fourth mark in twelve months
Kalshi is reportedly in advanced talks to raise about $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation, with Sequoia partner Alfred Lin, one of the company's five directors, negotiating to lead alongside Wellington Management, and Tiger Global and Dragoneer in talks 12. The ladder underneath reads $5 billion last October, $11 billion in December, $22 billion in May 14. Nothing is signed: the talks stood at $750 million in August 3, and no closing date is set 1.
Four marks in twelve months: Kalshi talks now point to $40 billion
- Valuation
- Estimate
Data
| Valuation | |
|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | $5B |
| Dec 2025 | $11B |
| May 2026 | $22B |
| Oct 2026, in talks (estimate) | $40B |
The contested product is the growth
Sports contracts are 65 to 70 percent of Kalshi's volume, and annualized volume ran from $52 billion to $178 billion in six months 4. Parlays alone produced $26 million of maker fees in their first four weeks after a 20 August fee launch, including $1.7 million on 12 September, per an Ingame analysis of the exchange's trade data 5. That is the revenue the courts are contesting. On 25 September the Sixth Circuit unanimously held Kalshi's sports-event contracts are not swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act, clearing Ohio and Tennessee to enforce gambling laws; Judge Julia Smith Gibbons wrote that the contracts have only "downstream economic consequences" 6. States have won 38 of 43 early rulings 6, and Ohio has proposed a $5 million fine 7.
The listed market takes the other door
One day after the round surfaced, Cboe and Robinhood announced KPI binary contracts on 23 US-listed companies for October: SEC-regulated, cleared through Cboe Clear U.S. once registered, free of fees through year-end, and pitched on federal preemption of state securities registration 89. Robinhood (HOOD) already distributes Kalshi's contested sports contracts 7; Cboe (CBOE) now hands it the same trade inside the securities perimeter. Kalshi itself asked the SEC to delay Cboe's binaries, with compliance chief Sudhir Jain urging regulators to wait for public comment 10.
What closes first
The CFTC has backed Kalshi and ordered it to keep operating in Michigan and New York; the Third Circuit sided with the company in April, and the circuit split now sits before the Supreme Court 6. Rival Polymarket closed at $21 billion in late August 11, and Bloomberg reports final negotiations with an IPO possible as early as 2027 12. The private market is paying $40 billion for the CFTC's perimeter; the listed market is renting the SEC's for free.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
