Ameren justifies a gas buildout and Missouri coal to 2042 with 2.8 GW of signed demand

The bill lands before the plants

The AI buildout reached Missouri households long before it reaches a turbine. Ameren Missouri's pending rate review, filed in June↗, asks for about $343 million more a year, roughly 10% on residential bills, or $13 a month, the third increase in five years following a 12% increase implemented in June 2025 ²⁷. On 28 September the utility showed regulators what the demand behind that bill looks like, filing a 20-year integrated resource plan↗ with the Missouri Public Service Commission ¹³.

The demand has signatures

The plan's high-load scenarios run 2.9 to 3.9 GW of new demand by 2030, 5 to 6 GW by 2035 and 6 to 9 GW by 2045 ¹. The company has committed to serving 2.8 GW of aggregate large-load demand by 2030 through signed electric service agreements↗ ³, and its rate filing projects electricity sales up more than 60% in five years, largely driven by new large-load customers ². The 8-K ties the whole forecast to "the large load customers that signed electric service agreements with Ameren Missouri in 2026" ¹. RBC sizes the opening at $3.5 to $5 billion of potential additional capex ⁴.

Gas does the work, coal gets the years

The preferred plan, picked from more than 20 candidates ³, opens with 1,900 MW of simple-cycle gas by 2029 and closes with 2,400 MW more after 2040 ³, and it pushes two units at the Labadie coal energy center from a 2036 retirement to 2042 ¹. The cleanest line items, 2,400 MW of battery storage by 2030 and 1,200 MW of new nuclear by 2040, ride in the same truck as the gas ¹³. About 1,800 MW of older gas plants retire along the way ¹.

North Carolina killed a forecast. Missouri gets a contract

Ten days earlier, North Carolina regulators denied Duke Energy a $584 million, 255 MW gas turbine↗ beside Amazon's planned $10 billion campus, saying much of the growth behind it "appears tied to future data centers" the commission had not finished verifying ⁶. Ameren's demand is papered, and on paper it pays.

The utility's own rate filing pegs about $2.8 million of cost to serve large-load customers against $13.4 million of annual revenue from them, which state Representative Brad Christ says would net households $5.2 million a year if it holds ²⁷. Senate Bill 4 and the Powering Missouri Growth Plan are built to make those customers carry their own infrastructure costs ³⁷. Geoff Marke, chief economist at the Office of Public Counsel, still warns residential customers are exposed unless cost allocation is exact↗ ⁸.

The check is already in the mail

The rate case, File No. ER-2026-0291, settles the first bill ², and every plant in the plan still needs its own certificate of convenience and necessity from the commission ¹. RBC cut its price target from $114 to $107↗ on 25 September anyway, with the stock at $99.39, 16% below its 52-week high ⁹. A forecast died in North Carolina. Missouri is being asked to bet on a signature.