AT&S built €2bn of AI substrate capacity on a skipped dividend. Marvell tests it on 6 October
AT&S is paying for up to €2bn of Malaysian substrate capacity with a €400m hybrid convertible and a third straight year without a dividend, against commitments from AMD and Marvell. Marvell's 6 October Investor Day gives the first hard reading of the demand behind the build.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
A record close and a 4% filing
AT&S closed at €223.00 in Vienna on 2 October, up 10.40% on the day and 592.55% since 1 January 1. Hours later came a second marker: BlackRock's position crossed the 4% threshold on 30 September, to 4.01% from 3.94%, with 1.17 of those points in instruments and 1.14 of them cash-settled CFDs 2. A disclosed position is not stated support.
Two customers, one €2bn plant
The repricing runs through Kulim, Malaysia. On 15 June, AT&S announced €1.5–2.0bn of expansion there, the fit-out of Plant 2 plus a new substrate-cores plant, "based on agreements with its customer AMD and another leading technology company" 3. Guidance jumped with it: 45–55% constant-currency revenue growth for 2026/27, up from 30–35%, a 32–37% EBITDA margin, up from 25–29%, and capex of €1.0–1.2bn, roughly triple the old plan 3. On 22 September the second customer was named: Marvell 4.
The June raise: 15 more points of growth, 7 more points of margin
- Previous 2026/27 guidance
- Raised 15 June 2026
Data
| Previous 2026/27 guidance | Raised 15 June 2026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth, low end | 30% | 45% | +50.0% |
| Revenue growth, high end | 35% | 55% | +57.1% |
| EBITDA margin, low end | 25% | 32% | +28.0% |
| EBITDA margin, high end | 29% | 37% | +27.6% |
Who actually pays
The financing is thinner than the share price. AT&S placed a €400m perpetual hybrid convertible with institutions on 16 June, a 2.5% coupon to 2031 that then steps up by 1,000 basis points, at a 30% conversion premium 56. The dividend table shows a third straight blank year, 2025/26 included 7. And the agreements behind the raised guidance "remain subject to final negotiation and execution", in AT&S's own June wording 3.
The customer's curve
Marvell is the number that has to hold. On 27 August it printed record quarterly revenue of $2.739bn, up 37% year on year, data center up 46% and now 79% of the total, and guided the current quarter to $3.15bn 8. Fiscal 2027 was lifted to about $12bn from $11.5bn, fiscal 2028 to near $18bn 910. Quarterly revenue has more than doubled in two years 11.
Marvell's quarterly revenue has more than doubled in two years, the curve AT&S is building for
- Marvell revenue
- Estimate
Data
| Marvell revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | $1.16B |
| Q2 '24 | $1.27B |
| Q3 '24 | $1.52B |
| Q4 '24 | $1.82B |
| Q1 '25 | $1.9B |
| Q2 '25 | $2.01B |
| Q3 '25 | $2.08B |
| Q4 '25 | $2.22B |
| Q1 '26 | $2.42B |
| Q2 '26 | $2.74B |
| Q3 '26 (guide) (estimate) | $3.15B |
The other side
The bull case is consensus: five analysts at Outperform, average target €272.20 1. The bear case lives inside the customer. Marvell closed at $268.08 on 1 October, 18.73% below its 52-week high, on a forward P/E of 85.9, with Morgan Stanley holding Equal Weight at a $268 target 109. If Marvell's long-term targets hold, the build funds itself; if they slip, AT&S carries fixed capacity bought with a hybrid and a forgone dividend. No filing prices that break.
What 6 October decides
Marvell presents long-term targets at its Investor Day on 6 October; watch the custom-silicon line, the business expected to more than double in fiscal 2028 9. AT&S reports on 4 November 1. The shareholders have already paid; on Tuesday they find out what they bought.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
