AT&T shuts off copper for about 90,000 customers on November 15; the FCC draft would end California's veto
Chairman Carr's draft order would end California's demand that carriers prove a replacement works before cutting copper. AT&T's 18-state shutoff starts November 15, the commission that paused Verizon now signals the freeze may not hold, and Community Phone's offshore closers are waiting for the funnel.
Vincent Jiang · 4 min read
On October 30, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr circulated a draft order that would strip California's power to make carriers prove a wireless or fiber replacement actually works before retiring copper 1. A comment period precedes any vote 2. Thirteen days from now, on November 15, AT&T+0.49% — AT&T, up 0.49 percent today begins shutting copper off for roughly 90,000 customers across 18 states, where no such test exists 1.
The commission that paused Verizon's nine-state application on September 25 over unverified alternatives 8 now wants to outlaw the verification itself 2. Which product wins the displaced household is the tension underneath every number that follows.
The Karachi closers get paid when copper dies
Community Phone, the Y Combinator-backed seller of a landline substitute for seniors, now claims more than 30,000 customers and a platform carrying more than 3 million calls a month 34. Its closers sit remote in Pakistan, Egypt, Jamaica, North Macedonia and the Dominican Republic 3. An October 11 Inference piece priced the Karachi closer: $10,200 base, $850 monthly at quota, $20,400 at target 5.
The same board posts a US social media manager at $85,000 to $105,000 5; loaded with the benefits and equity the careers page promises US staff 3, the domestic hire runs about seven times the closer at target. The page names the funnel outright: "Guiding families through landline shutdowns" 3. The funnel's timing is the order's timing.
AT&T spends $6 billion a year keeping copper alive
On the October 21 earnings call, CFO Pascal Desroches put legacy service revenues down 25% year over year, legacy EBITDA down about 27%, and called copper retirement integral to the target of $4 billion in annual consolidated cost savings by end-2028 6. That $4 billion is a savings target, not earnings 6.
The spend side: about $6 billion a year maintaining copper, about $1 billion of it in California, for a legacy base down to 1% of eligible customers, from 5% in December 2024 16. Every dollar of the savings is a household rerouted.
Copper costs $6 billion a year; the savings target is $4 billion by 2028
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Copper maintenance, national | $6B |
| Copper maintenance, California | $1B |
| Cost-savings target, 2028 (estimate) | $4B |
Two sellers, thirteen days, a battery gap
The FCC approved AT&T's 18-state plan on January 12, covering 1,060 calling areas 7. The default offer is AT&T's own Phone-Advanced, which needs in-home power and carries 24 hours of battery 1. The challenger is Community Phone's box, 26 hours on the same architecture 4. Ninety thousand households, two sellers, thirteen days of lead time 17.
The wave behind the wave runs to the millions
The wave behind the first wave is sized in the millions: 1.3 million locations already retired across 18 states, with 1,500 more communities planned in the next year; Verizon's+0.77% — Verizon, up 0.77 percent today nine-state filing covering 277,000 lines; 184,000 California locations authorized but frozen until at least June 1, 2027 126. Each figure is a household somebody keeps or somebody wins.
The displacement is sized in millions; the first wave is 90,000
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| AT&T retired to date, 18 states | 1,300,000 |
| Verizon nine-state filing | 277,000 |
| AT&T California authorization | 184,000 |
| AT&T first wave, Nov 15 | 90,000 |
California's veto now belongs to the courts
California's rule requires the replacement be verified as already available; a partial deal with Cal Advocates (fiber at 20% of locations, 80% gigabit, a 1-million-location cap) remains active 1. RCRC, CWA and TURN argued October 22 that the Communications Act bars the FCC from preempting the state's rules 2, and under Loper Bright the courts owe the agency no deference 1.
The exhibit both sides will argue: a 2024 AT&T outage left about 25,000 calls to 911 unanswered 1. Both substitute products share the weakness California polices: in-home power, 24 hours for Phone-Advanced, 26 for the box 14.
Verizon's pipeline is already running in eight states
Verizon is already approved in parts of eight states, with requests pending in 18 more plus DC 2. If Carr's draft is adopted and survives, displacement accelerates and the startup's funnel widens; if courts hand the veto back, California's test stands.
The September pause showed the commission can slow a cutoff; the October draft shows it now wants to stop anyone else from slowing one 28. The copper is going away, the order would strip the proof, and thirteen days out the first ninety thousand learn who answers when it rings.
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