Autodesk adds $6.7 billion with no bid as Schneider Electric pays $22.6 billion for PTC
Schneider Electric's $22.6 billion cash takeover of PTC has lifted Autodesk for six straight sessions, though no bid for Autodesk has been reported. Whether the re-rating sticks turns on the company's own cash forecast and an AI product it has not yet priced.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Six green days, zero bids
Autodesk−0.62% — Autodesk, down 0.62 percent today closed higher for a sixth straight session on Wednesday, October 7, 2026, at $235.05, adding about $6.7 billion of market value 1. The bid that repriced it was for somebody else's company: no offer for Autodesk has been reported, and the move that started the streak lifted Bentley Systems and Procore too 2.
A $22.6 billion marker for design software
On October 5, Schneider Electric agreed to pay $205 a share in cash for PTC: about $22.6 billion of equity, a 42.3 percent premium to the last close, with completion expected by the third quarter of 2027 3. PTC closed up 33.5 percent that day; Autodesk rose about 4.5 percent and kept going, to near $49.4 billion of market value, still 25.2 percent below its 52-week high 21.
The acquirer fell, the non-target soared
Schneider's own shares dropped more than 8 percent in European trading on its deal, while the company nobody is bidding for added billions 4. The streak sits inside a rotten year: Autodesk is down 20.6 percent in 2026 and 27.3 percent over twelve months, against an S&P 500 up 15.0 percent this year 1.
The cash is real, the repeat is not
The bull case has receipts: $2.8 billion of trailing free cash flow, a 6.3 percent yield against a 4.5 percent median for the S&P 500, a 91 percent gross margin, revenue up 17.9 percent over twelve months, and a 30.1 times trailing multiple below the information-technology median of 36.3 51.
Revenue climbs every quarter; cash still moves with the billings calendar
- Revenue
- Free cash flow
Data
| Revenue | Free cash flow | |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 '23 | $1.47B | $0.43B |
| Q1 '24 | $1.42B | $0.49B |
| Q2 '24 | $1.51B | $0.2B |
| Q3 '24 | $1.57B | $0.2B |
| Q4 '24 | $1.64B | $0.68B |
| Q1 '25 | $1.63B | $0.56B |
| Q2 '25 | $1.76B | $0.45B |
| Q3 '25 | $1.85B | $0.43B |
| Q4 '25 | $1.96B | $0.97B |
| Q1 '26 | $1.93B | $0.88B |
| Q2 '26 | $2.05B | $0.56B |
Management's own August numbers carry the caveats: the fiscal 2027 cash forecast was cut to $2.725–2.75 billion from $2.76 billion, roughly two points of the second quarter's 16 percent revenue growth came from a new transaction model that will not repeat in fiscal 2028, and billings rose 10 percent to $1.85 billion, slower than revenue 56.
Scarcity, the bulls' answer
Strategic money has now priced mid-tier design software at 21 times estimated 2027 EBITA, before synergies 3. Autodesk holds $4.2 billion of cash against $3.7 billion of debt and raised its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to $8.295–8.345 billion, partly on the MaintainX acquisition 5. None of that fixes fiscal 2028, where the growth already booked does not repeat.
What settles it
Diana Colella, named October 6, leads Autodesk's largest business, architecture, engineering and construction, as Amy Bunszel retires November 2 7. She inherits the AU 2026 bet: an agentic Assistant orchestrating the Forma, Fusion and Flow clouds from 2027, its pricing and licensing terms withheld 8. At the late-November quarter report, unconfirmed by the company, watch Autodesk's own numbers: cash guidance restored above $2.76 billion, or a price on the AI layer. Neither, and the $6.7 billion stays a borrowed bid 25.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
