Axon trades at 161 times earnings as it takes Binghamton from Flock; Texas's grant ban names Axon too
Axon won Binghamton University's plate-reader contract on October 19, five days after Texas's comptroller wrote Axon's name into a plate-reader grant ban. The stock is down 31% in 2026 and still priced at 161 times earnings, a price that assumes the hardware and software bolted onto each police deal keep expanding.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
A 31% drawdown meets a campus switch
Axon+3.37% — Axon, up 3.37 percent today, the maker of TASER devices and body cameras, closed October 16 at $390.29, down 6.45% on the day and 31.28% for 2026, still a $31.7 billion company at 161.81 times earnings 12. On October 19, Binghamton University dropped Flock Safety's automated license plate readers and switched to Axon, taking university-owned data in an isolated cloud and 21-day retention against Flock's 30 3. Students had spent months forcing Flock out: a walkout of more than 100 in May, then a petition with more than 2,000 signatures 3. The administration says the choice was operational, technological and financial, not a concession to activism 3. The student council's counter, a resolution proposed on October 8 and not yet voted on, asks that any future plate-reader vendor face council review first 3.
The price rests on the attach
Revenue carries that multiple: $904.4 million in the second quarter, up 35.3% from a year earlier, $1.64 billion in annual recurring revenue, and full-year guidance of 32–34% growth 14. TASER devices and body cameras are the base; the marginal dollar likely comes from what the industry calls the attach, the plate readers, drones and software bolted onto an existing camera contract. No public figure breaks out how much of revenue the attach line carries. The federal base shows the pattern: agencies added more than 22,000 Axon body cameras and evidence licenses this year, and on October 15 the Department of Homeland Security chose Axon's Dedrone counter-drone platform under a contract that discloses no dollar value 5.
The growth Axon's 161-times-earnings price assumes: 29%+ every quarter since 2023
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | $413.28M |
| Q4 '23 | $430.38M |
| Q1 '24 | $459.87M |
| Q2 '24 | $503.24M |
| Q3 '24 | $544.27M |
| Q4 '24 | $575.15M |
| Q1 '25 | $603.63M |
| Q2 '25 | $668.54M |
| Q3 '25 | $710.64M |
| Q4 '25 | $796.72M |
| Q1 '26 | $807.35M |
| Q2 '26 | $904.39M |
The bans now name the winner
Flock, an Atlanta company operating roughly 120,000 cameras across 49 states, is cutting about 270 jobs, 18% of its workforce 6, after 93 cities and counties dropped its cameras in August alone 7. Texas Comptroller Don Huffines' October 14 order bars state grant money from plate readers, and its definition names Flock, Motorola Solutions+0.92% — Motorola Solutions, up 0.92 percent today and Axon Enterprise 8. Nine Texas cities and counties have ended Flock deals; Midland saved $225,500 by terminating early 8. In Congress, the Ban Flock Act would cut federal money from a range of plate-reader purchases 9. St. Paul shows the drone leg: residents rallied October 13 over a roughly $300,000 police contract with Skydio, a drone maker whose docked drones the organizing coalition says are supplied through an Axon agreement dating to 2023; the council withdrew its application for a $200,000 federal drone grant on September 9 10. Axon won Binghamton five days after Texas wrote its name into a grant ban 38.
The next reading is November 3
The bull case is intact: the brokerage TD Cowen reiterated a Buy with an $825 target on October 13, and Raymond James+1.34% — Raymond James, up 1.34 percent today kept Outperform at $675 on October 15 12. Dedrone passed $100 million in quarterly revenue in the second quarter 2. Third-quarter results, estimated for November 3, carry a consensus near $939.4 million 1. The open question is whether the attach grows faster than the prohibitions.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
