Barclays cuts NuScale to Underweight with a $5 target; 16 months of cash, no plant contract
Barclays made the SMR basket's first sell rating at NuScale on the same morning it trimmed Oklo, and the missing piece in both stories is the same: a signed customer contract to bill against while cash burns.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Barclays+1.41% — Barclays, up 1.41 percent today cut NuScale Power to Underweight with a $5 price target on October 20, 2026, and the stock sank 7% to $5.26, a new 52-week low 245. The same morning the bank trimmed its target on Oklo to $59 from $76, keeping Overweight 3. NuScale holds the only U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission design certification among small modular reactor developers, and it is now the basket's first sell rating. The best credentialed name in the sector is the one analysts are running from. 14
NuScale has a certified design but no signed plant contract to bill against
The reactor is approved; the customer is not. NuScale booked $0.1 million of revenue in the June 2026 quarter, down from $8.1 million a year earlier, because the Fluor engineering design work for the RoPower project in Romania finished in late 2025 and nothing replaced it 1. Trailing twelve-month revenue stands at $10.7 million against $733 million of operating losses, and management said on the August 5 call that 2027 revenue depends on a contract still awaiting final signature. 1
That is why Barclays moved. UBS cut the stock to Sell in September over long commercialization timelines, weak customer commitments and heavy cash burn 4. NuScale's operations consumed $776 million over the twelve months to June 30, 2026, against $1,072 million of cash and short-term investments 1. At the current burn that implies roughly 16 months of runway, an estimate, and the third-quarter report due on or around November 5, 2026, is the next scheduled reading of that clock. 1
NuScale burned $776 million in a year with $10.7 million of revenue
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| TTM revenue | 10.7M |
| Cash burn (TTM) | 776M |
| Cash on hand | 1,072M |
Oklo is running the same funding clock with different math
Oklo+2.58% — Oklo, up 2.58 percent today closed at $27.24 on October 19, 83% below its October 2025 high 3. It funds its build-out by selling stock: a fresh $1 billion at-the-market program set up on September 11, after $126.9 million of property and equipment spending and an $81.6 million net loss in the first half of 2026 3.
Barclays still sees 117% upside there, but consensus 2026 losses have widened to $0.94 a share, and Oklo's first plant in Idaho was still finishing excavation in August 3. The ATM program is the same funding question we covered in last week's piece on Oklo's unbuilt isotope plant and its $6.5 billion bill (/article/oklo-s-cancer-isotope-plant-lands-with-no-buyer-no-price-and-a-6-5-billion-bill). 3
The repricing is selective, and the profitable names took the money
This is not a blanket anti-nuclear move. Profitable GE Vernova+4.67% — GE Vernova, up 4.67 percent today rose 52% over the twelve months NuScale fell 87.1% and Oklo fell 83% 1, and on downgrade day the Global X Uranium ETF slipped only 1.46% while NuScale fell 7% 4.
Money moved from the developers still waiting on a first plant order to the companies already billing customers. NuScale trades at 194 times trailing revenue against 3.1 times for the S&P 500 1, a price that pays today for an order that does not exist yet. The bull case is real: ENTRA1 Energy, NuScale's exclusive global commercialization partner, is in talks with the Tennessee Valley Authority toward a power purchase agreement for what 24/7 Wall St. calls potentially the largest nuclear deployment program in U.S. history 4.
So there are two plain options: own the profitable power names that already bill customers, or wait for NuScale to sign before paying up. At 194 times revenue, the market is betting the TVA deal lands before the cash runs out 1. The next scheduled reading of that bet is NuScale's cash line in the report due around November 5. 1
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