Bernstein trimmed Verizon, Comcast, T-Mobile and Charter targets on SpaceX's carrier entry; stocks rose
Bernstein trimmed four carrier price targets and Piper Sandler halved AST SpaceMobile's on the same day the stocks they cut traded higher, leaving investors to price one question: how fast SpaceX can turn spectrum into a network on the ground.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Bernstein trimmed price targets on Verizon to $45 from $47, Comcast to $23 from $28, T-Mobile to $180 from $220 and Charter to $150 from $120 on Tuesday, keeping its Market Perform rating, a hold-equivalent, on all four 1. Its case: growing competition from SpaceX's−4.08% — SpaceX, down 4.08 percent today planned entry into the US mobile carrier market, compounded by incumbent carriers' pricing moves and fourth-quarter seasonality 1.
The cuts landed three days after Friday's selloff, in which the three largest US carriers shed more than $50 billion of combined market value and Verizon took its steepest one-day decline since 2002 1.
Analysts cut deepest where SpaceX bites first: the satellite operator
- Prior target
- New target
Data
| Prior target | New target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verizon | $47 | $45 | -4.3% |
| Comcast | $28 | $23 | -17.9% |
| T-Mobile | $220 | $180 | -18.2% |
| Charter | $150 | $120 | -20.0% |
| AST SpaceMobile | $98 | $54 | -44.9% |
The deepest cut went to the satellite operator, not the carriers
AST SpaceMobile−7.70% — AST SpaceMobile, down 7.70 percent today, the satellite-to-phone developer chasing the same direct-to-device market, took the sharper blow. Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter downgraded the stock to Neutral and cut the target to $54 from $98, citing SpaceX's roughly $8 billion spectrum commitment and the risk that SpaceX could restrict launch access or squeeze pricing for rivals 24. ASTS traded down about 9% on Tuesday, leaving it 36% lower year to date 25.
The bull case is a timeline, not a denial
Raymond James moved the other way, upgrading T-Mobile to Outperform at $170 and calling the near-term SpaceX threat "overblown" and at least three years away 1. Morningstar kept its base case that Starlink, SpaceX's satellite service, will not threaten carrier wireless, while raising uncertainty ratings on Verizon, T-Mobile and AT&T to High and noting SpaceX still needs more spectrum and thousands of sites 1. All four Bernstein-cut carriers traded higher on the cut day, Charter up more than 2% 1.
The whole split turns on towers
JPMorgan framed the test: without a deal with an existing carrier, SpaceX would likely need to build a ground network of macro towers 1. SpaceX has answered with spectrum so far: up to 14 MHz of 800 MHz low-band from Grain Management, ex-T-Mobile licenses covering roughly the entire US population, plus 65 MHz of mid-band from EchoStar, the satellite company whose spectrum SpaceX is buying in a $17 billion FCC-approved purchase 3. The FCC approved SpaceX's application for 15,000 next-generation satellites earlier this month, in the week of October 5; 650 direct-to-device satellites are already in orbit 3. SpaceX's own FCC filing says the low-band deployment will rely on radios feeding antennas on towers, rooftops and other structures 3.
The next readings are dated
SpaceX targets 2027 for its next-generation satellites, with upgraded service by the end of that year 1. ASTS's next BlueBird launch, with satellites already at Cape Canaveral, tests Piper's launch-bottleneck thesis directly 5. Raymond James gives the carriers three years; SpaceX's satellite clock says late 2027. The BlueBird launch date and the first signs of tower construction show which timeline is running ahead.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
