DHL raises its 2026 EBIT target to more than €7.0 billion as Germany's 95-cent letter goes to €1.15

On October 16 DHL▼−0.89% — DHL, down 0.89 percent today Group raised its full-year 2026 guidance↗ in a single stroke: reported group EBIT now expected above €7.0 billion instead of €6.5 billion, division EBIT above €6.4 billion instead of €5.9 billion, free cash flow above €3.2 billion and capex around €3.6 billion ¹. Third-quarter revenue came in near €22.6 billion, up more than 12%, with group EBIT of about €1,710 million against €1,477 million a year earlier ¹. The stock, on the dpa wire, "struggled" on the news ⁵. The reason sat in the same release.

The lift came from Express, not Bonn

DHL Express earned about €1,035 million in the quarter against €692 million, helped by yield measures and operating leverage, but also by roughly €100 million of "limited support" from capacity constraints in the air freight market, a scarcity DHL does not control ¹. That single division supplies more than half the group's EBIT ¹. Post & Parcel Germany, the division the release did not raise, earned about €150 million against €218 million a year earlier, a fall of roughly a third; its full-year target was left untouched at more than €900 million ¹.

Berlin is repricing the letter

Three German decisions now press on that €900 million number. The cabinet approved ending the VAT exemption on business mail↗, the letters banks and insurers send; the treasury expects about €115 million a year from Deutsche Post, and the company calls the obligation unlawful ³⁵. The regulator proposed letter increases of 20.35%↗ and private parcel increases of 10.72%, deliberately below what Deutsche Post requested; comments close October 30 and the final decision lands in November for 2027 and 2028 rates ⁶. Letter volume has fallen from 16.9 billion in 2005 to under 9.4 billion in 2025, so the division needs price to hold earnings up ⁷.

Deutsche Post answered on October 20↗: from January the standard letter goes to €1.15 from €0.95, subject to approval, with board member Nikola Hagleitner saying price increases are "unavoidable" without government support ⁸. The regulator's 20.35% margin implies €1.14, so the announced price sits at the very top of the band ⁶⁷⁸.

Who carries the raised guide

The counterpoint is real: the letter hike, the eased force majeure delivery rule in the same bill and the €1.15 price all help Post & Parcel Germany, and even the VAT change may be passed to senders ⁵⁸. But the group's new €7 billion guide is not underwritten by Germany. It is underwritten by air freight pricing DHL does not set, while the one division Berlin touches is the one DHL left unraised. The full Q3 report lands November 5; the regulator decides in November; the mid-term guide is reviewed in March ¹⁶.