Fermi paid $25 million to delete the only test of AI demand at its Texas campus

An amendment filed on October 16 erases the 400-megawatt lease covenant on Fermi's turbine loan and defers about $56 million of principal. The demand question now rests on two dates: the TensorWave lease close on October 31 and the construction-start notice Fermi owes its ground landlord by December 31.

Richard TangRichard Tang · 3 min read
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Rick Perry speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference in 2014
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Rick Perry, co-founder of Fermi Inc., the developer of the Project Matador campus in the Texas Panhandle, speaking at CPAC in 2014.

Fermi−6.04% — Fermi, down 6.04 percent today (Nasdaq: FRMI) paid its lenders $25 million this morning to erase the one test that would have shown whether an AI tenant wants its site 1. Its February equipment loan from Japan's MUFG Bank required, by November 10, a lease or offtake, a contract to take a project's power or capacity, covering 400 megawatts at Project Matador, its campus in the Texas Panhandle 1. The amendment filed today deletes the requirement and the penalty for missing it 1.

By Fermi's own estimate, that penalty would have forced about $56 million of principal payments across the next three quarters, and the amendment removes them 1. The lenders keep their fee and their collateral, the Siemens gas turbines now sitting at the site 23. Shareholders keep waiting for a tenant.

The deferral covers every quarter left before the loan matures

The February facility was a $500 million turbine warehouse line, a loan secured by equipment bought for the project, and MUFG held it alone 23. From November 10, quarterly principal was set to run at 10 percent of the balance instead of 5 unless Fermi had 400 megawatts of leases or offtake signed 2. The waiver deletes that step-up 1.

The quarters it defers run through June 2027, the last full ones before the facility matures in August 2027, so the schedule Fermi bought out of ends at a refinancing wall 2. MUFG stays on as administrative agent, now for a new syndicate of lenders 1.

A $25 million fee defers about $56 million of principal through Q2 2027

  • Estimate
$0M$5M$10M$15M$20M$25MQ4 2026$22MQ1 2027$19MQ2 2027$15MAmendment fee paid to lenders
Data
Value
Q4 2026 (estimate)$22M
Q1 2027 (estimate)$19M
Q2 2027 (estimate)$15M
Required principal Fermi estimates the amendment eliminates, by quarter, in USD millions; the 8-K says 'approximately' and 'the Company believes'. The reference line marks the $25 million fee paid to lenders. Source: Fermi 8-K, October 16, 2026.1

The power is built; the demand is still future tense

Fermi controls the half of the problem it set out to solve: land, permits, more than $1.5 billion spent, and a campus designed to ramp to 17 gigawatts 4. The half it cannot build is signed demand. The deleted covenant asked for 400 megawatts of that 1.

TensorWave, an AI cloud running AMD's−5.74% — AMD, down 5.74 percent today Instinct GPUs, signed the only lease so far, in August, for 222 megawatts 4. The 15-year contract carries about $6.5 billion of expected revenue, and it is still not effective 4. Closing has already been pushed once, to October 31, and the conditions include project-level financing 5. Even fully effective, the lease left the deleted test about 178 megawatts short 12.

AMD's guarantee starts only when the rent does

AMD's backing, announced on October 13, lifted the stock 16 percent 6. But the chipmaker's credit support starts only when construction finishes and rent begins on the final delivery phase, which completes in early 2028 7. Nothing credit-backed covers the construction period the turbine loan is financing.

Shareholders now hold the demand risk, and two dates decide it

Fermi has booked no revenue, its cash has drained into the buildout, and its June filing still raised going-concern doubt about its ability to keep operating 27. The demand itself is real: a signed 15-year lease and a chipmaker's guarantee are evidence that AI builders want this power 46. What Fermi deleted today was the lenders' way of checking whether it arrives at Matador on time 1.

Cash drained into Matador as debt stacked up, with no revenue yet

  • Cash
  • Total debt
$0M$200M$400M$600MQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026$91.73MMUFG turbine loan funded inFebruary
Data
CashTotal debt
Q3 2025$182.99M$125.44M
Q4 2025$408.53M$131.12M
Q1 2026$243.29M$465.01M
Q2 2026$91.73M$576.39M
Quarter-end cash and total debt, in USD millions, from Fermi's SEC filings; Fermi reported no revenue in any quarter shown.8

Two dates now carry that question. By October 31, the TensorWave lease must close, with project-level financing among the conditions 5. By December 31, Fermi must issue its notice to proceed, the formal order to begin construction, under its ground lease with the Texas Tech University System, the landowner at Matador, which can terminate the lease if the notice is late 2.

The 400-megawatt test no longer exists on paper. Its work falls to the two dates above, and to whoever signs the capacity TensorWave does not cover 2.

Deepdive

AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.

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