Fervo's geothermal plant is selling power 23 months after breaking ground
Fervo's Cape Station block began selling electricity on 30 September, 23 months after groundbreaking, the first greenfield enhanced-geothermal plant anywhere to get there. The receipts now land in a listed company's numbers, against gas answers still on a 2027 delivery calendar.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
The AI power gap's first finished answer is not a gas turbine. Fervo Energy said on 1 October that its Cape Station plant in Utah began selling electricity on 30 September, one day before its contractual date, the first greenfield enhanced-geothermal development anywhere to reach commercial operation 12. Groundbreaking to commercial operation took 23 months 12.
The receipt is small but real: 33 MW of net production, meeting the expected threshold in the power purchase agreement, with revenue now being booked 2. Two more 33 MW blocks are due by 1 January 2027, and a 400 MW second phase is already under construction toward a 2028 start 2.
Google took 396 MW of a 900 MW queue
Contracted offtake at the Utah site runs near 900 MW: Southern California Edison, Shell Energy and community choice aggregators signed first, then Google took 396 MW on 1 September, the largest enhanced-geothermal PPA to date 3. Portfolio-wide, the backlog stood at $7.2 billion at mid-year 7; by September, Zacks counts 1,054 MW of binding contracts worth about $11.9 billion 9.
33 MW is metered; 4 GW is a company estimate
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Selling now (GeoBlock 1) | 33 MW |
| Phase I total, due Jan 2027 (estimate) | 100 MW |
| On site by 2028 (Phases I+II) (estimate) | 500 MW |
| Cape offtake contracted (estimate) | 900 MW |
| Resource potential, company study (estimate) | 4,000 MW |
The receipts now land in Fervo's own numbers
Fervo listed in May at $27 a share, raising roughly $2.04 billion net 47. The second quarter framed the stakes: a $55.9 million net loss, $226.5 million of capex in three months, and first-half revenue of $174,000 79.
Another $850 million to $900 million of capex is planned for the second half, against $2.1 billion of cash 7. For 2027, its first full commercial year, management anticipates $60 million to $80 million of revenue, a range widened by transmission curtailments it calls unique to next year 7.
The market has not paid for the milestone. Shares slid 16.4% in the week through 29 September, even after the 24 September grid synchronization, and selling intensified after that first power 98. The stock sits nearly 70% below its $42.50 May peak; the quote panel beside Thursday's release showed FRVO up 6.4% 82.
The gas camp is selling a 2027 calendar
Siemens Energy's fast answer, 119 mobile turbine cores totalling more than 1.7 GW for Dynamis, ships its first batch in 2027 5. NextEra told investors this week it has identified roughly 18 GW of gas opportunities, most of it federal-hub work where government partners, not NextEra, put in the capital 6.
Fervo's wedge is phasing, power added in blocks the way racks are, and it says it can reach an 18-month build for future GeoBlocks 2. Speed to power, Latimer said on the August call, "is becoming one of the most important factors our customers weigh" 7.
The wells will cool
The 4 GW headline is Fervo's own resource study, not a buildout 7. And the rock depletes: "the production temperatures of our wells will decline. That is simply how the physics works," Latimer said, with makeup wells drilled bigger and hotter as the fix 7.
The sell side stays constructive on a stock the tape has punished: 16 of 18 analysts tracked rate it a Buy, the average target is $40.86, and Jefferies cut its target from $41 to $34 in July even as it upgraded to Buy 8. Zacks, contrarily, ranks it a Sell 9.
Fervo's receipt is 33 MW, metered and sold; the queue is still a delivery schedule. Next checkpoints are dated: GeoBlocks two and three by 1 January 2027, the 400 MW second phase in 2028, and 1.1 GW targeted by 2030 27.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
