First independent study finds OpenAI's ChatGPT Ads return sites $0.89 a visit against Google's $2.45
The measurement lands a week before Bending Spoons reports Q3. Evernote's owner has bet its next subscribers on the channel, and the cost side of that bet has never been published.
Richard Tangthree-minute read
The first independent measurements of ChatGPT Ads, OpenAI's$1.18T — OpenAI, private, latest valuation $1.18T in-conversation ad product, find the channel returns about a third of what a paid Google search visit returns 13, and they land a week before Bending Spoons+0.31% — Bending Spoons, up 0.31 percent today, the company that owns Evernote$200M — Evernote, private, latest valuation $200M, reports Q3 7. A working paper under review, by economists Maximilian Kaiser and Christian Schulze, tracked nearly ten billion sessions across 1,898 websites through August 12.
A paid ChatGPT visit generated $0.89 in revenue for the site it reached, against $2.45 for a paid Google+2.40% — Google, up 2.40 percent today search visit, measured across 102 advertisers 1. More than 100,000 advertisers are testing the channel, and Adthena, a search intelligence firm, found most of the 30 enterprise brands it tracked last quarter struggled to recoup what they spent 3.
Most enterprise brands struggled to recoup their ChatGPT ad spend
- Struggled to recoup spend5252%
- Matched or beat Google ads2626%
- Mixed results2222%
Data
| Slice | Value | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Struggled to recoup spend | 52 | 52% |
| Matched or beat Google ads | 26 | 26% |
| Mixed results | 22 | 22% |
Evernote's published lift stops short of a cost
OpenAI's October 28 customer post is the counterpoint the platform points to 34. Evernote's campaigns, built around a single product feature, converted free trials to paid subscriptions 10–20% above its historical paid-acquisition average 4. Roughly a quarter of desktop visits from those campaigns became new accounts 4. All of it rests on Evernote's first-party analytics, and the post's own footnote concedes the comparison does not establish incremental lift 4.
Conversion quality is one half of a profit-and-loss statement. No published figure says what those sessions cost Evernote. The closest channel-wide read is the paper's pricing finding: at paid search's rate of return, a paid ChatGPT click would be worth about $0.26 1. Actual prices run more than six times that 1.
A paid ChatGPT visit is worth about a third of a paid Google search visit
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Paid Google search visit | $2.45 |
| Paid ChatGPT visit | $0.89 |
| ChatGPT visit at paid search's return | $0.26 |
For Bending Spoons, the marginal subscriber is the whole story
Bending Spoons (Nasdaq: BSP), the Milan-based acquirer whose portfolio runs AOL$1.4B — AOL, private, latest valuation $1.4B, Vimeo$1.38B — Vimeo, private, latest valuation $1.38B and WeTransfer alongside Evernote 7, has grown the note app by raising prices and capping usage for the users it already had 5. Prices jumped from $70 a year to $130 after the 2023 takeover 5. This year some longtime users were moved to a $250 plan 5, and in 2025, 51% of all conversions came from users hitting a usage limit 5.
The conversion loop is being built; the cost side is not
A channel that pulls willing users in would be a different growth engine, and the work of tracking a visitor from click to first payment is visible: Evernote used its own analytics to follow ad visitors through to a first subscription payment 4, exactly the conversion data OpenAI's new measurement pixel and conversion bidding are built to learn from 3. That engine is debt-funded. Bending Spoons priced $1.8 billion of senior secured notes on October 28 to fund more acquisitions 6, and reports Q3 on November 20 7.
Registrations rebounded, payback is still unproven
Registrations did rebound after the takeover, up 29% in 2024 and 20% in 2025 after three straight years of decline 5. What had never been published, until now, is evidence from a paid channel that Evernote can win users it does not already have 4. Whether it wins them at a price that pays back is what the first independent read doubts, and Black Friday, flagged by Adthena chief marketing officer Ashley Fletcher as the moment to watch, is the near-term test 3.
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