First Solar sues JA Solar and Corning's US plant as $97 a share to the street's target rides on one patent
First Solar's October 1 suit against JA Solar and Corning's American Panel Solutions drags a US-owned factory into its TOPCon patent campaign. At $177.82 against a $274.47 consensus target, the stock's 53% spread rests on a patent already struck down in China and under reexamination in Washington.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
A Phoenix plant becomes a defendant
The 2 GW module factory in Phoenix that JA Solar built for $60 million, and that Corning+2.30% — Corning, up 2.30 percent today bought last year as Washington tightened foreign-content tax rules, is now a patent defendant 1. On October 1, First Solar−0.78% — First Solar, down 0.78 percent today sued four JA Solar entities and American Panel Solutions (AMPS), the Corning subsidiary that runs the plant, in Delaware federal court, alleging infringement of US Patent 9,130,074, which covers methods for making TOPCon cells 23. AMPS had not been among the respondents in the trade investigation First Solar later abandoned 4.
The moat is a licensing asset, not a product line
First Solar makes cadmium telluride thin-film modules and sells no TOPCon panels of its own; the patents it took from TetraSun in 2013, valid through 2030 and beyond, are leverage over everyone who does 25. The prize is a market that installed 11.4 GWdc in Q2 2026, up 45% year on year, with utility-scale at 9.6 GW, up 61% 67. Chief executive Mark Widmar points to "somewhat insatiable demand from hyperscalers", and the contracted backlog runs 45.1 GW through 2030 8.
Dead in Beijing, alive in Washington
China's patent office struck down all claims of the '074 patent in May, on a challenge from JinkoSolar, and the patent sits in reexamination at the USPTO 6. The counterweights: the USPTO's director refused three inter partes review petitions, from JinkoSolar, Canadian Solar and Mundra Solar, in late 2025 46. On September 16, First Solar withdrew its ITC complaint, citing the Section 232 polysilicon tariffs; its stayed district court cases against JinkoSolar, Canadian Solar, T1 Energy and Trina Solar now move 34. The stock fell 5% that day while solar peers held flat 5.
Wall Street still pays for the moat
Goldman Sachs+1.73% — Goldman Sachs, up 1.73 percent today cut its target to $272 from $310 on October 8 and kept its Buy rating 89. Consensus across 36 analysts sits at $274.47 against a October 9 close of $177.82, a 53% spread 9. The shares are 43% below their June 3 high of $318.25, though Q2 earnings rose 23% to $3.92 a share and estimates for 2026 and 2027 have barely moved in 90 days; the damage is the multiple, 8.5x forward earnings against the 12.9x that $272 requires 8.
Every broker target sits $40 to $112 above First Solar's close
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Baird (estimate) | $290 |
| Consensus (36 analysts) (estimate) | $274.47 |
| Goldman Sachs (estimate) | $272 |
| Piper Sandler (estimate) | $251 |
| Evercore ISI (estimate) | $218 |
| Oct 9 close | $177.82 |
Royalty or nothing
First Solar's one named licensee is Talon PV, and the company says more suits are coming 46. A patent that holds turns every TOPCon module entering the US into a toll; a patent that falls turns the campaign into a legal bill. The record shows licensing and litigation running together, and no filing yet says which defendants get offered a royalty rather than a courtroom.
What decides it
JA Solar and Corning have not formally answered 10. Watch whether Delaware waits out the reexamination, and how the third quarter lands against a $625 million to $775 million adjusted EBITDA guide 68. The $97 gap between First Solar and its consensus target is, at bottom, a bet on one patent, and that patent is already dead in China.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
