Goldman's bond managers are stepping aside from the AI debt wave Goldman forecasts

Goldman's fund arm holds less AI debt than its own rules allow

Lindsay Rosner, who runs multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, is holding less hyperscaler paper than her mandates allow. "We believe there will be a lot of hyperscaler issuance," she said on Bloomberg TV on 24 September↗. "For that sector at large we are underweight knowing more issuance will come." ¹² Her team still believes "in the story of AI" ¹; this is not a default call. It is a supply call, made inside the firm whose own data sizes the wave.

A $17 billion habit became a $420 billion pipeline

Goldman data show hyperscaler bond issuance hitting a record $420 billion in 2027↗, 60% above the 2026 estimate ³. Amazon, Meta and Alphabet have been among the biggest sellers of high-grade US corporate bonds this year, borrowing hundreds of billions of dollars for AI projects ¹, and Moody's counts almost $3 trillion of off-balance-sheet obligations behind the same names ¹. JPMorgan Asset Management's tally runs from $17 billion in 2024 to $109 billion in 2025 to $194 billion in the first half of 2026 ⁴.

Buyers still show up, at a wider spread

Spreads on AI-issuer paper sit near 115 basis points, against 78 for the broader investment-grade market ³. Bids for new hyperscaler bonds covered the offer nearly five times in February and under twice by July, on Apollo data↗ ⁴⁵.

Alphabet needed a large concession to complete its August sale, while Aon's $13.5 billion financing in September drew $65 billion of orders ³. "The market is a bit starved for anything ex-hyperscaler," said Wellington's Lauren Moran ³. The bond market has not said no to AI debt. It has said wider.

The other camp says bring the wave

Stephanie Aliaga, investment strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said in early September that the six largest hyperscalers could raise another $1.5 trillion and the market would absorb it, per Oninvest's account of her Bloomberg interview↗ ⁵. BlackRock's Russell Brownback calls the widening straightforward supply and demand, with lenders paid spreads usually reserved for weaker credits ³.

"We believe the market is fully capable of absorbing these new issuances," Aliaga said ⁵. Thornburg's Lon Erickson is holding cash to buy the same bonds cheaper later ³. Both camps agree the credits are solid. They differ on who eats the repricing.

The ECB warns the cost could land on everyone else

The ECB counts about €40 billion of hyperscaler euro bonds outstanding, just shy of 10% of gross new euro issuance by non-financial companies ⁶⁷. Its warning is conditional: big tech "could push up borrowing costs for all sectors↗" as it takes a growing share of bond markets, with passive funds mechanically buying as index weights rise ⁶⁷.

Lagarde put it more plainly: "Europe will bear part of the price of this boom in its own borrowing costs↗" ⁸. JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest already puts this year's AI-linked issuance near $320 billion↗, a 10-year-equivalent 68% of new long-duration Treasury borrowing ⁹.

For now the ECB sees limited spillover to other corporate borrowers ⁶. The 2027 slate is the next reading, and the tells are concrete: the concessions buyers demand on first-quarter deals, and hyperscaler weights in the benchmark indices at year-end. If the $420 billion lands on schedule, the concession stops being Alphabet's problem alone.