Lilly's obesity pill wins EU backing after Novo's; its ex-US sales rose 80% on prices down 36%
EU regulators recommended Eli Lilly's obesity pill Foundayo, the second after Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill, setting up the first market where both will sell. Both report Q3 within three weeks, and the filings say Lilly arrives with a price-for-volume machine.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
Europe's drug regulators have recommended Eli Lilly's+0.35% — Eli Lilly, up 0.35 percent as of its last quote once-daily pill Foundayo for weight management and type 2 diabetes, the second oral weight-loss drug to win their backing after Novo Nordisk's−1.05% — Novo Nordisk, down 1.05 percent today Wegovy pill 1. The European Commission, which has the final word, usually follows its committee within weeks 2. Novo's pill has held Europe alone since its approval on July 15; Lilly's, cleared in the United States in April, booked its first $98 million of sales last quarter 345. Both companies chase a market expected to pass $100 billion a year by 2030 1.
Lilly buys growth with price
The second-quarter filings show the weapon Lilly brings. Revenue rose 48% to $23.0 billion: volume up 60%, realized price down 13% 4. Outside the United States, revenue rose 80% to $8.6 billion while prices fell 36%, the same trade that grew the diabetes injection Mounjaro 91% 4. Novo's quarter ran the other way: sales up 3% at constant exchange rates, 7% adjusted, its US operations down 2%, and a full-year guide that lets adjusted sales fall as much as 6% 4.
From near-parity to an $11 billion quarterly gap in eight quarters
- Eli Lilly
- Novo Nordisk
Data
| Eli Lilly | Novo Nordisk | |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 '24 | $11.44 | $10.52 |
| Q4 '24 | $13.53 | $11.95 |
| Q1 '25 | $12.73 | $11.33 |
| Q2 '25 | $15.56 | $12.08 |
| Q3 '25 | $17.6 | $11.79 |
| Q4 '25 | $19.29 | $12.44 |
| Q1 '26 | $19.8 | $14.85 |
| Q2 '26 | $22.97 | $11.98 |
Novo's lead is real, and already in the price
The Wegovy pill is ahead: roughly $850 million of worldwide sales in the first half against Foundayo's $98 million, more than 5 million US prescriptions since launch, and over 80% of new US oral prescriptions 24. In diabetes, Foundayo also meets Rybelsus, Novo's $3 billion oral, and it can be taken any time of day where Novo's pills require fasting 2. A Lilly-run indirect comparison presented on September 29 found the 17.2 mg pill beat oral semaglutide 25 mg on both weight loss and blood-sugar reduction 9. Novo's US-listed shares have fallen 25.5% this year while Lilly's rose 7.7%, so the tape already leans Lilly's way 4. No source yet carries European prescription data for either pill.
Two prints, three weeks apart
Lilly reports third-quarter results on October 29 6; Novo follows on November 4 4. Foundayo's second quarter of sales, and Lilly's ex-US realized prices, will show whether Europe repeats the injectables story. Novo's one-quarter head start is about to meet the company that grew ex-US revenue 80% while cutting prices 36% 4.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
