National Grid raised its EPS growth outlook above 13% to 15% on £130 million of one-off venture gains

The lift came from venture revaluations

On October 5, 2026 National Grid·+0.76% — National Grid, up 0.76 percent as of its last quote told investors that underlying earnings per share growth this financial year would land slightly above its 13 to 15 percent guidance range ¹. The wires did not do it: the company said its regulated businesses "continue to perform in line with expectations↗" ¹. The lift sits in National Grid Ventures and Other, the unregulated arm that runs the interconnectors linking Britain's grid to its neighbors. It is expected to deliver around £130 million of extra first-half performance↗, mostly one-off fair value gains from two successful capital market transactions in the group's NG Partners investment portfolio, with stronger interconnector results making up the rest ¹².

The venture arm is now an earnings line

National Grid Partners (NGP), the Silicon Valley corporate venture arm launched in 2018, has put $600 million into startups and says more than a dozen exits have returned more than it invested ³⁴. It held just under 5 percent of Dragos↗, the infrastructure cybersecurity firm sold to Accenture·+4.63% — Accenture, up 4.63 percent as of its last quote for $3.25 billion ³. Last month the unit moved under the new chief technology and innovation officer, Alice Delahunty, with a brief covering grid resilience and cost ³. Which two transactions produced the £130 million is not public; the accounts will say.

The regulated growth is still an application

Today National Grid put a package of 19 projects to Ofgem↗, the UK energy regulator, under the RIIO-T3 load re-opener, the route for transmission spending added to the current price control ⁵. The package totals about £4.5 billion: £2.3 billion covers six projects submitted in May and already under Ofgem's assessment, and £2.2 billion is new ⁵. It sits inside a plan of roughly £31 billion of England and Wales transmission investment by 2031 ⁵, within at least £70 billion of group-wide network spending ³.

Ofgem assesses every project before approval, against the company's own framing of keeping "long term costs down for consumers" ⁵. The group is spending into that queue either way: capex has more than doubled since 2021, from $5.8 billion to $13.2 billion, while revenue went sideways ⁶.

What November 5 settles

J.P. Morgan·+0.04% — J.P. Morgan, up 0.04 percent as of its last quote analysts made the defense on the record: "Over 90% of the company's investments in the coming years will be in regulated businesses, underpinned by robust frameworks" ². That is fair, and NGP says its exits have returned more than it invested ³. But the update itself calls the gains one-off, and fair value marks can reverse as easily as they book.

The shares, at 1,154.5 pence on October 12, sit 19.19 percent below the 52-week high of 1,428.5 pence↗ ⁷. RBC Capital Markets analysts kept a Sector Perform rating and a 1,375 pence target ⁷. Half-year results on November 5, for the six months to September 30, will break out how much of the £130 million recurs ⁷. Ofgem's determinations on the 19 projects set when the regulated spending can start earning.