Nebius, 40% off its June peak, signs the lease unlocking VOLT's $8.1 billion Rotterdam AI campus

The signature that unlocks €7 billion

VOLT, a Dutch infrastructure developer founded in 2025 by Han de Groot, has signed Nebius▲+1.56% — Nebius, up 1.56 percent today Group as the first paying customer of its planned Rotterdam AI gigafactory: a long-term lease covering 100,000 GPU slots and up to 200 megawatts, confirmed Monday by the Dutch papers De Telegraaf and Financieele Dagblad ¹. The lease is the anchor commitment VOLT needs before approaching lenders for the €7 billion (about $8.1 billion) construction financing, roughly €2.5 billion of civil works and grid plus €4.5 billion of chips, on a campus designed for 250,000 GPUs and 800 megawatts, with first capacity due late 2029 or early 2030 ¹. "Europe needs more large-scale AI infrastructure," Nebius chief executive Arkady Volozh said in a statement ¹. The deal stacks on a $17.4 billion Microsoft▲+0.95% — Microsoft, up 0.95 percent today capacity agreement and a framework worth up to $27 billion with Meta ¹.

The guarantor got repriced the same week

The announcement landed in a credit rout. CoreWeave, the other big listed neocloud, a company that like Nebius rents GPU computing power to AI developers, saw its unsecured bonds trade near a 15 percent yield↗, and Goldman Sachs measured US high-yield AI debt spreads widening 25 basis points to 360 over Treasuries on October 13 and 14↗, meaning lenders demanded more to hold the sector's paper ². Nebius fell 6 percent on the Wednesday ³ and closed Friday at $165.47, down almost 12 percent on the day ⁴, leaving it roughly 20 to 25 percent lower for the week ²³ and about 40 percent below its June 18 record close of $286.69 ⁵. The revenue stream that makes the campus bankable is a counterparty the credit market spent that same week repricing.

The lease lands on a widening funding gap

Nebius spent about $5.7 billion on capital expenditure in the second quarter, more than ten times a year earlier, and has guided to $20 billion to $25 billion for 2026↗ against $8.04 billion of cash ⁶. Debt reached $10.06 billion at the end of June, up from near zero at the end of 2024 ⁷, with the first half funded by $4.34 billion of convertible notes and $2.85 billion of share sales ². Rotterdam's 200 megawatts are about 4 percent of the 5 gigawatts of contracted power Nebius targets by year-end ⁶. Three unnamed customers were 59 percent of second-quarter revenue ⁵.

The other side, and the dates that decide it

There is a real bull case. Nebius owns its land and power, carries a current ratio of 3.08 against CoreWeave's▼−1.42% — CoreWeave, down 1.42 percent today 0.46, and has borrowed through convertibles rather than high-yield bonds ⁸. About 70 percent of its second-quarter deals carried customer prepayments covering half to 60 percent of the capital cost ⁶. Goldman Sachs▼−0.69% — Goldman Sachs, down 0.69 percent today strategist Amanda Lynam expects some near-term reversal of the selloff, and the bank upgraded CoreWeave to Buy on Monday ²⁹. Director Arne Grimme bought 296 shares at $169.99 on October 15 and 16↗, about $50,000, under a 10b5-1 plan adopted June 15, before the rout ¹⁰. The filings do not yet say how large Nebius's borrowing grows before Rotterdam powers on in 2030. VOLT now takes the lease to lenders, and their pricing of that €7 billion meets Nebius's third-quarter results on November 10 ⁶, three days before the EU's rival, state-backed gigafactory tender closes on November 12 ¹.