Netflix Swaps $650 Million of Auteurs for Disney's Leftovers
Fincher's exit and Disney's 2 October catalog license finish a rotation out of origination and into rental. The 20 October earnings report prices whether a streamer that rents its hits still earns its multiple.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
One week closed the auteur era and stocked the shelf
On 30 September, David Fincher's exclusive Netflix pact, signed in 2020, was confirmed to expire next year without renewal 1. Three days later Disney agreed to license Netflix a slate of movies and shows, the companies said: all five Ice Age films, the first two seasons of Percy Jackson, Will Trent, and the stand-alone Pixar and Disney titles Soul, Elio and Raya and the Last Dragon, which arrive in early 2027 2. Nothing carrying Marvel, Star Wars or a franchise flag ships in the deal, and Disney-branded titles largely stay exclusive to Disney 23. Netflix took The Walking Dead from AMC in July; the shelf has been filling all year 2. Neither announcement carried licensing terms 2.
What the auteur slate actually returned
Mank cost $25 million and grossed about $100,000 in three weeks of theaters, then spent a single day, in last place, on Netflix's own top-ten film chart 4. The Killer cost $175 million and grossed $452,000 4. Rian Johnson's two Knives Out sequels arrived under a $450 million pact 4. Around the exits stack more exits: the Duffer brothers to Paramount, Noah Baumbach to Warner Bros, Shawn Levy's 21 Laps to Disney after nine years 14.
$650M committed to three auteur projects; top theatrical gross: $452K
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Mank (2020) | $25M |
| The Killer (2023) | $175M |
| Johnson two-sequel pact | $450M |
Sarandos priced the problem himself
"Overall, we're not growing as fast as I want us to," the co-CEO told a Los Angeles conference on 30 September 56. Engagement rose 2% in the latest period while revenue grew double digits in every region 5. Live programming absorbs about 5% of a $20 billion content budget and delivers roughly 1% of viewing hours 57. The filings match the complaint: revenue growth peaked at the end of 2025 and has slowed every quarter since, to a third-quarter guide of 11.7% 89. Wells Fargo's Steven Cahall counts members at 1.6 hours a day in the first half of 2026, down about 8% from the same period of 2023, and expects hours on the biggest originals to fall a further 21% in the second half on a thinner slate 9.
Revenue growth has slowed every quarter of 2026; Q3 is guided at 11.7%
- Revenue growth, YoY
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue growth, YoY | |
|---|---|
| Q2 '24 | 16.8% |
| Q3 '24 | 15% |
| Q4 '24 | 16% |
| Q1 '25 | 12.5% |
| Q2 '25 | 15.9% |
| Q3 '25 | 17.2% |
| Q4 '25 | 17.6% |
| Q1 '26 | 16.2% |
| Q2 '26 | 13.4% |
| Q3 '26 (estimate) | 11.7% |
Disney plays poacher and supplier at once
Disney hired Levy's company away in September and sold Netflix a library in October 12. The Ice Age films stream for three months from 4 October, timed to the February theatrical release of Ice Age: Boiling Point; Percy Jackson lands ahead of season three 23. The five films are a billboard Netflix rents from Disney: three months of viewing that ends in a ticket sale Disney keeps.
The street splits on what rental earns
The bear ledger: NFLX near $68 against a June 2025 record of $134, and YouTube at a record 14.2% of US TV viewing in July versus Netflix's 7.9% in June, Nielsen's last comparable reading 7. Wells Fargo set the street's floor at $57 on 18 September 9. The bulls: Deutsche Bank upgraded to buy on 30 September at $95 on 18% Asia-Pacific revenue growth, Evercore raised its target to $110 on record household penetration, and some investors argue live events pull in the new, engaged members that headline hours miss 79. Sarandos calls the departures individual circumstances, says the $83 billion Warner Bros. Discovery bid he declined to match was the top price that still returned value, and expects growth to stay organic 5.
Targets run from $57 to $110, and the shares trade near the low end
- US dollars per share
- Estimate
Data
| US dollars per share | |
|---|---|
| Wells Fargo target (estimate) | $57 |
| Share price | $68 |
| Deutsche Bank target (estimate) | $95 |
| Evercore target (estimate) | $110 |
October 20 prices the swap
Third-quarter results land on 20 October 10. Netflix no longer publishes subscriber or churn counts, so the tell is the fourth-quarter revenue guide against the 11.7% mark, and the margin outlook against a content budget now spent elsewhere 9. The auteur era ended on arithmetic. The earnings call prices what replaced it.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
