October CPI locks in a December hike that lands three weeks after Anthropic's $90 billion IPO prices
Markets price a 99% chance of a Fed hike at the December meeting, and Goldman's own fixed-income head calls it the firm's base case, with more possible in 2027. The FOMC meets about three weeks after the Anthropic IPO prices, a $90.4 billion deal led by Goldman and Morgan Stanley.
Richard Tangtwo-minute read
October inflation came in hotter than expected on November 10, and markets now price a 99% chance the Federal Reserve hikes at its December meeting, the last of the year 1. That decision lands about three weeks after Anthropic$350B — Anthropic, private, latest valuation $350B prices the biggest IPO ever sold on November 18, a $90.4 billion deal led by Goldman Sachs+0.42% — Goldman Sachs, up 0.42 percent as of its last quote and Morgan Stanley+0.52% — Morgan Stanley, up 0.52 percent as of its last quote 4. The constraint on AI valuations this month is not a model benchmark. It is the discount rate.
The print itself: consumer prices rose 0.4% over the month against 0.3% expected, core rose 0.3% against 0.2%, and there is no year-on-year figure at all because the 2025 shutdown broke the data series 1. Gasoline is 37.4% above a year earlier on the war's energy shock 1.
October CPI beat forecasts on both the headline and the core
- Actual
- Expected
Data
| Actual | Expected | |
|---|---|---|
| Headline | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Core | 0.3% | 0.2% |
S&P 500 futures fell after the release, with the Nasdaq 100 leading the drop, as traders read the number as higher rates for longer 5. Goldman Sachs Asset Management's Lindsay Rosner called a December hike the firm's base case despite AI jitters, and left open more hikes in 2027 1.
The two houses that lead the IPO cannot agree on what the hike does
Morgan Stanley's own equity chief, Michael Wilson, warned that a more restrictive Fed could prolong the stock correction into December, while the firm's research desk still expects more AI debt issuance in 2027 and says financing remains available 23. Both views can be true: debt still clears, but at a price that keeps rising. Note who sits on both sides of that trade, since Goldman and Morgan Stanley lead the Anthropic deal itself 4.
The IPO that has to price into this
Anthropic is seeking as much as $90.4 billion, including a $26 billion private placement from its own chip suppliers, with pricing set for November 18 4. Its revenue run rate climbed from $65 billion at end-July to $81 billion at end-October 4.
Anthropic's run rate rose $16 billion in three months
Data
| Revenue run rate | |
|---|---|
| End-July | 65B |
| End-Sept | 71B |
| End-Oct | 81B |
Anthropic's growth is the best evidence the AI demand is real. But the money chain runs: revenue funds compute commitments, compute commitments need cheap financing, and cheap financing needs a Fed that stops. Inflation just said it will not stop yet. Whoever buys ANT when it starts trading on November 19 is not only underwriting Claude 4. They are underwriting the rate path Goldman's own fixed-income desk says includes 2027 1.
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