Palantir's $126 million ICE tool profiled people who film ICE agents, a court filing shows
A partially unsealed Maine class action shows, in the government's own paperwork, how Palantir-built Investigative Case Management profiles people who film ICE. The contract line behind it has pulled roughly $126 million since 2022, and Wall Street's bull case prices none of the legal risk.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
A redacted court filing made public on October 2, 2026, documents, in the government's own paperwork, how Palantir's+2.32% — Palantir, up 2.32 percent today Investigative Case Management system gets used in the field 12. DHS agents compiled dossiers on people who watched ICE operations in Maine: photos, license plates, home addresses, cohabitants. Agent J.C. created ICM records on at least six observers, the government's count is eight, and tagged two people filmed in a Home Depot parking lot "Threat to Law Enforcement, Professional Protestor" 2. Their photos went to a CBP officer for facial recognition through Mobile Query; one plaintiff's plate went through LexisNexis's Accurint after she photographed an arrest in Portland 2. Then J.C. called her spouse and warned that people who "do things like that" might get added to a domestic terrorism watchlist; he testified he warned of arrest and denied referencing a watchlist 2. DHS calls the suit meritless and denies any "domestic terrorist" database 13. Wired broke the story; Gizmodo and Engadget retold it as a civil-liberties fight 123. What none of them did is follow the money.
Roughly $126 million keeps the product line alive
ICM is not an accidental warehouse. ICE awarded Palantir the contract in 2014 on the Gotham platform, and a 2016 DHS privacy assessment shows ICM records auto-share with CBP's TECS system as border screening "lookout records" 2. In 2022 ICE signed a five-year support contract initially valued at up to about $96 million, then added nearly $30 million in 2025 to develop ImmigrationOS, the deportation-software platform 2. That is roughly $126 million of public money keeping this one product line alive since 2022.
What the valuation does and does not price
Against an $8 billion annualized run rate, the ICM line is small directly, roughly 1.6 percent of one year's revenue. The stake for shareholders is the vertical, not the line item: Goldman Sachs−0.37% — Goldman Sachs, down 0.37 percent today upgraded PLTR to Buy on October 8 with a $230 target, citing government-led sovereign AI demand on that $8 billion run rate growing near 100 percent 5. The stock closed October 1 up 2 percent at $190.04, above GuruFocus's $182.93 fair-value estimate 4; the analyst average target sits at $204.15 5. None of that narrative prices legal risk in the government vertical it rests on.
Palantir's quarterly revenue has tripled in two years, annualizing near $8 billion
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | $0.63B |
| Q2 '24 | $0.68B |
| Q3 '24 | $0.73B |
| Q4 '24 | $0.83B |
| Q1 '25 | $0.88B |
| Q2 '25 | $1B |
| Q3 '25 | $1.18B |
| Q4 '25 | $1.41B |
| Q1 '26 | $1.63B |
| Q2 '26 | $1.94B |
PLTR trades above model fair value, below the analyst average and Goldman's $230 target
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| GF Value (fair est.) | $182.93 |
| Close, Oct 1 | $190.04 |
| Price, Oct 8 | $198.05 |
| Avg analyst target | $204.15 |
| Goldman target (estimate) | $230 |
Two watch-items: a ruling and a disclosure
The suit is unproven and DHS contests every allegation 2. But the filing, built from government-produced documents and agent depositions, is now the public record: the first inside view of how a contract line investors are buying actually behaves. If a court ever slowed procurement in this vertical, the AI narrative would carry the cost; no source yet shows it has. The watch-items are specific: the ruling on the government's motion to dismiss, and Palantir's next ICE procurement disclosure, which would show whether the $126 million line keeps growing.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
