Platforms

Palantir's Karp says a wealth tax 'is going to need surveillance' as the stock sits at 219 times earnings

Recorded on November 10 for Walter Isaacson's podcast and carried to more than 14,000 Reddit points, the interview landed in a week that took 17.55 percent off Palantir. At 219 times earnings, holders own the founder's story as much as his contract book.

Vincent JiangVincent Jiangthree-minute read
Share
Palantir chief executive Alex Karp at the UK government's AI Safety Summit in Bletchley, November 2023
1 / 6Slide 1 of 6
Palantir chief executive Alex Karp at the UK government's AI Safety Summit in Bletchley, November 2023. The interview that started the week's slide was recorded on November 10, 2026, for Walter Isaacson's podcast.

In ten days, three political positions

On November 10, on The Builders, the podcast of Walter Isaacson, the biographer of Steve Jobs and Elon Musk, Palantir−3.69% — Palantir, down 3.69 percent today chief executive Alex Karp argued that "to enforce a wealth tax, you're going to need surveillance," because "AI could impute every single thing you own" 1. Reddit−2.11% — Reddit, down 2.11 percent today carried the clip past 14,000 points across three threads on November 13 and 14 234. It reached holders already paying 219 times earnings 5.

Pay more, but not through a surveillance state

Karp, worth an estimated $18 billion 7, allowed that people like him should pay more, so long as it "doesn't destroy American tech" or "expand the surveillance state" 1. The same session produced his case that Silicon Valley "would not even exist" without US military support, and that America needs battlefield AI, barred from domestic use by legislation 6. A day later, after a Democratic midterm sweep, he told Politico "I've been a Democrat my whole life," calling Palantir's products "essentially progressive" 7, a pivot covered here on Friday.

A 17.55 percent week at 219 times earnings

PLTR, Palantir's Nasdaq ticker, traded at $161.94 on November 14, down 17.55 percent for the week, at 219 times earnings and 170 times free cash flow, against a divided analyst corps and a $217.97 consensus target 5. The quarter was not the trigger: shares rose after the November 2 report 8. The slide came after the interviews.

Free cash flow has more than doubled in a year to $1.20 billion a quarter

  • Free cash flow
  • Stock-based compensation
$0B$0.5B$1B$1.5BQ1 '24Q3 '24Q1 '25Q3 '25Q1 '26Q3 '26$1.2B
Data
Free cash flowStock-based compensation
Q4 '23$0.3B$0.13B
Q1 '24$0.13B$0.13B
Q2 '24$0.14B$0.14B
Q3 '24$0.42B$0.14B
Q4 '24$0.46B$0.28B
Q1 '25$0.3B$0.16B
Q2 '25$0.53B$0.16B
Q3 '25$0.5B$0.17B
Q4 '25$0.76B$0.2B
Q1 '26$0.89B$0.2B
Q2 '26$1.2B$0.27B
Q3 '26$1.2B$0.32B
Quarterly free cash flow and stock-based compensation in US$ billions, from Palantir's SEC filings, with free cash flow as the company reports it. The stock trades at 170 times free cash flow against 219 times earnings.12

Revenue doubled; contract value grew 6 percent

Third-quarter revenue reached $2.313 billion, up 96 percent, and US commercial sales of $984 million, up 148 percent, passed US government sales of $953 million for the first time 8. Karp told analysts "we really cannot satiate demand" 5; full-year guidance rose to $8.530–8.534 billion 8.

Palantir's quarterly revenue has nearly doubled in a year to $2.31 billion

Revenue nearly doubled year on year; the 96 percent growth now meets a 219-times multiple

$0B$1B$2B$3BQ1 '24Q3 '24Q1 '25Q3 '25Q1 '26Q3 '26US commercial passed governmentfor the first time
Data
Revenue
Q4 '23$0.61B
Q1 '24$0.63B
Q2 '24$0.68B
Q3 '24$0.73B
Q4 '24$0.83B
Q1 '25$0.88B
Q2 '25$1B
Q3 '25$1.18B
Q4 '25$1.41B
Q1 '26$1.63B
Q2 '26$1.94B
Q3 '26$2.31B
Quarterly revenue in US$ billions from Palantir's SEC filings; Q3 2026 as reported on November 2, 2026. The year-on-year gain has widened in each of the last five quarters.8,11

Beneath it, total contract value grew 6 percent, to $2.918 billion, after growing 151 percent a year earlier 8, while stock compensation climbed to $318.9 million and receivables reached $1.88 billion 5. A 96 percent revenue quarter resting on a 6 percent contract-value print suggests growth leaning on renewals and expansion more than new customers, though Palantir closed 212 deals worth at least $1 million in the quarter 8.

Revenue growth accelerated to 96% while contract value growth fell from 151% to 6%

The contract book's growth braked from 151 percent to 6 in a year

  • Revenue growth
  • Total contract value growth
0%50%100%150%200%Q3 '25Q3 '266%Contract book growth braked asrevenue accelerated
Data
Revenue growthTotal contract value growth
Q3 '2562.8%151%
Q3 '2695.9%6%
Year-over-year growth in percent, from Palantir's reported Q3 2025 and Q3 2026 figures. Total contract value growth is as the company reported it in each quarter.8,12

London cannot leave, and February decides

The renewal machine shows in Britain. Ministers are reported set to extend the £330 million NHS Federated Data Platform by two years because replacing it within four months is "not practical" 9, even as two House of Commons select committees, parliament's investigative panels, urged the NHS to trigger its break clause, the February 2027 window to exit the contract early 9. The platform's true cost has reached £1.1 billion, and forecast benefits were cut to £808 million from £2.5 billion 9.

Alex Karp shakes hands with then UK deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden at the AI Safety Summit in Bletchley
Alex Karp, left, with then deputy prime minister Oliver Dowden at the UK's AI Safety Summit in Bletchley in November 2023. Britain is where Palantir's renewal machine is most visible: the NHS data platform runs to a February 2027 break clause.UK Government

An exhibit in the founder religion

Business Insider's Sunday feature, led by Jensen Huang's resignation and Elizabeth Holmes, made Palantir an exhibit in founder worship, which it calls "the most consequential religion in America," quoting the koan sewn into the company chore coat and Karp's shareholder letter that proclaiming "the equality of all cultures" was a mistake 10. The February 2027 break clause 9 and the next contract-value print 8 will show whether 219 times earnings 5 was buying growth or the storyteller.

Get Platforms by email, free

The cloud, data and developer software AI is built on. In our daily email, every weekday.

Loading PLTR

Reader comments

0 comments

    More in Platforms

    All in this topic →

    Platforms

    Amtrak's booking site failed during the FAA's four-hour national ground stop

    Amtrak blamed a "systemwide update", the same failure mode that grounded the country's flights: a change pushed into a system that is never allowed to stop. The money Congress is asked to add will buy change discipline on live systems, and the vendors selling staged rollouts and tested failover are the layer positioned to be paid for uptime.

    Platforms

    Databricks, valued at $190 billion, routes OpenAI's ChatGPT and Codex through Unity Gateway

    The November 13 playbook makes Databricks' Unity Gateway the place where OpenAI's models are permission-checked, logged and budgeted, weeks after a $190 billion funding round. The listed read-through is Snowflake, which is growing again, and an Anthropic IPO that prices on November 18.

    Platforms

    Dynatrace says AI customers consume its platform at twice the rate

    CFO James Benson's doubling claim is the most concrete AI-monetization number enterprise software has produced, and the mechanism behind it is real: observability bills scale with AI sprawl. At close to 80 times trailing earnings, the stock has already paid for that usage to reach the P&L.

    Platforms

    Oracle and AWS shipped LiteLLM gateway blueprints on Nov. 12, with budgets that don't enforce by default

    The fine print in both cloud blueprints shows the routing layer does not meter spend by default and does not route consistently, while OpenAI's subscription meter expands to 11 outside apps. Anthropic prices its IPO on November 18, and revenue per agent task is part of that argument.

    Platforms

    Barclays moved 23,000 developers onto GitLab's AI tools in one year

    GitLab's agent usage is compounding and its first consumption dollars are on the tape, yet 25 analysts cut next-quarter estimates in a month without one raise. The next print must convert agent queries into revenue at the pace a 44.9-times-forward multiple demands.

    Platforms

    Salesforce signs deal to buy Cresta, whose AI agents already resolve calls for Marriott and Comcast

    The deal buys the place where billing could shift from seats to actions: the service call. Shareholders are financing the pivot with debt, and ServiceNow is already selling the way out.

    Subscribe to TheInference for free