PayPal's new business is consumer lending and its $606,000 lobbying list includes credit rules
Three documents in 48 hours show PayPal trading a shrinking payments business for consumer lending, while its own lobbying disclosures show it working the rules that will price that lending. The credit cycle just got less friendly.
Richard Tang · 3 min read
PayPal−0.22% — PayPal, down 0.22 percent as of its last quote just admitted its old business is not growing, its new plan is lending, and its own lobbying filings show it is helping write the rules that will price that lending. That is the news from three documents in 48 hours, and it changes what shareholders own: less a payments network, more a consumer credit book that fails on the cycle.
The CEO named the disease himself
At Money 20/20 in Las Vegas on October 19, chief executive Enrique Lores, seven months into the job, said PayPal "isn't agile enough," that too many management layers slowed decisions, and that Venmo and the Braintree processing business went without enough attention or investment 1. The company has begun cutting jobs under his three-year plan; Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal reported in May an aim to cut the global workforce by about 20% 1.
PayPal's revenue growth cooled from 9% in early 2024 to 4.8% last quarter
Data
| Revenue growth, year over year | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | 8.4% |
| Q4 '23 | 8.7% |
| Q1 '24 | 9.4% |
| Q2 '24 | 8.2% |
| Q3 '24 | 5.8% |
| Q4 '24 | 4.2% |
| Q1 '25 | 1.2% |
| Q2 '25 | 5.1% |
| Q3 '25 | 7.3% |
| Q4 '25 | 3.7% |
| Q1 '26 | 7.2% |
| Q2 '26 | 4.8% |
The plan is to look more like SoFi+1.43% — SoFi, up 1.43 percent today and Chime−0.16% — Chime, down 0.16 percent as of its last quote: the most engaged of PayPal's more than 400 million app users want credit, he said, buy now pay later and lending, while checkout stays but gets "complemented" 2. The catch is that agentic commerce, the future Lores wants to occupy, brings no meaningful volume until 2028 1. Between now and then, the growth shareholders are funding is credit.
The credit cycle just got less friendly
A credit-led pivot is a bet on the consumer at a bad moment: hotter-than-expected core inflation on October 14 strengthened the case for more Federal Reserve tightening 6. Wall Street priced it in before Lores spoke: BofA+0.51% — BofA, up 0.51 percent as of its last quote Securities resumed coverage of PayPal at Underperform 5, and Cleveland Research downgraded it to Underperform on weak trends in Braintree on October 19 4. The stock, down about 76% over five years, is where that doubt shows up 1.
The rules PayPal wants
PayPal spent $606,000 on federal lobbying in the third quarter, and its October 19 disclosure lists cannabis banking and the SAFE Banking Act, digital currencies, consumer credit, money transmission and consumer financial protections among its issues 3. A company becoming a lender has an obvious interest in how lending gets regulated; the filing does not say how much of the money chased each item 3.
PayPal's federal lobbying ran near $600,000 a quarter while it built the consumer-lending case
Data
| Federal lobbying spend | |
|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $570,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $611,000 |
| Q3 2026 | $606,000 |
As for a sale, Bloomberg reported that PayPal assessed a bid from Stripe and Advent International made in July, which the suitors abandoned in August; Lores did not discuss it on stage 1.
Credit losses, not credit volume
Watch the next earnings print. Branded checkout is laggard, Braintree is losing on price, and the consumer-credit business that replaces them is the most cyclical thing PayPal could add. Until Lores shows credit losses, not just credit volume, holders own the cycle, not the turnaround.
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