Samsung, Intel and TSMC promised ASML's $400M machine work. None promised a count
Samsung, Intel and TSMC have put dates on High-NA EUV production and the stock sits at $1,870.48, but the capacity sold out through 2027 is for the cheaper machine. The 14 October Q3 report is the first count of whether the promises became backlog.
Vincent Jiang · 2 min read
The charge: a rally priced on headlines
The rally was bought with headlines. ASML's US shares rose about 3.25% to $1,870.48 on 2 October after Samsung promised High-NA EUV in high-volume DRAM by 2028, an industry first 1. The stock sits 47.7% above a $1,270 fair-value estimate, and the announcement itself disclosed no system-order totals, no delivery timetable and no service-revenue forecast 1. Everyone promised the machine work. Nobody promised a count.
The evidence, dated
On 8 September Samsung joined ASML's Large Size Mask Consortium for 12-inch photomasks and set its 2028 DRAM target 2. TSMC committed to high-volume High-NA from 2030, and Intel reported more than one million wafers processed, including production layers of its 18A node 34. Each EXE scanner costs roughly $400 million, twice the standard EUV tool, and the standard tools are all but sold out through 2027 34.
The company's exhibits, unaudited
SK Hynix will use High-NA from 2028; Micron has ordered tools without a production date 4. After meeting CFO Roger Dassen, JPMorgan analysts wrote that demand "remains very very strong," with most orders now for 2028 delivery 5. July's Q2 report lifted the 2026 sales outlook to EUR 43 billion to EUR 45 billion 6.
Revenue peaked at $11.4B in Q4 2025 and is holding above $10 billion a quarter
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | $7.1B |
| Q4 '23 | $8.04B |
| Q1 '24 | $5.75B |
| Q2 '24 | $6.71B |
| Q3 '24 | $8.3B |
| Q4 '24 | $9.65B |
| Q1 '25 | $8.42B |
| Q2 '25 | $8.94B |
| Q3 '25 | $8.84B |
| Q4 '25 | $11.43B |
| Q1 '26 | $10.08B |
| Q2 '26 | $10.6B |
The prosecution: the customers walking out
The order count stays hidden while the old revenue leaves. China took roughly 16% of first-half sales 7; a proposed US bill, the MATCH Act, would bar ASML's immersion DUV sales to China outright 8. Europe bought nothing: zero percent of first-half revenue, against 1% in 2025 and 5% in 2024 9. "So, we are selling absolutely nothing in Europe," said EVP Frank Heemskerk, citing no fab construction 9.
Europe's share of ASML revenue: 5% in 2024, zero in 2026
Data
| Europe share of revenue | |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 2% |
| 2023 | 4% |
| 2024 | 5% |
| 2025 | 1% |
| H1 2026 | 0% |
The defense: the CFO's tone and the bid
Dassen relayed one customer's tone: "Can you give me more? Can you give it to me fast?" 4. ASML bought back EUR 427.8 million of stock in one September week and EUR 248.2 million the next, under a EUR 12 billion program 1011. JPMorgan sees more than 110 EUV tools under study for 2028 and Intel "becoming a meaningful customer again" in 2027 5.
The cross-examination: two different machines
The machine that is sold out costs $200 million. The machine with the promises costs $400 million, and adoption starts in 2028, scaling "more meaningfully over the next decade" 5. EUV capacity rises 30% in 2027 from about 65 systems, against demand already spoken for 7.
The verdict watch: 14 October
Q3 lands on 14 October 10. Net bookings settles it: the first public number on whether September's promises sit in the order book or the press releases.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
