Shein lost a third of its value and became Temu's only public gauge
PDD does not report Temu separately, so its first full quarter under the EU's €3 parcel fee, closed 30 September, will stay invisible. The nearest listed read, rival Shein, printed Europe sales down 13.9% [4] and operating income down 53% [2], and two of its core suppliers say their Temu orders weakened [2].
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
The only public gauge of Temu is a rival's filing
PDD Holdings does not report Temu separately, so the quarter Temu closed on 30 September went unmeasured 1. The nearest instrument printed two days earlier. Shein, four weeks into life as a Hong Kong listing, reported first-half operating income down 52.9% at $493 million on revenue up 1% 2. Its shares fell as much as 14% on 29 September and closed 10.7% lower at HK$31.50, about a third below the offer price 34.
Temu has no ticker of its own, so its price discovery now runs through a rival's filings.
The EU fee quarter is closed, and Shein priced it first
Shein's Europe sales fell 13.9% to $3.77 billion in the June quarter, after it raised prices and cut advertising ahead of 1 July, when the EU ended its €150 duty-free exemption and set a temporary €3 duty per imported item 142. The September quarter was Temu's first full one under that fee 1, a regime this network covered on 30 September. Asked about the duties in August, PDD co-CEO Chen Lei said cross-border orders in affected markets face "lower fulfillment efficiency and higher costs," with "a considerable impact" short term 6.
Suppliers say Temu weakened, and the app data agrees
Around Shein's print, two of its core suppliers, unnamed, told Bloomberg their Temu business had weakened, and that Temu's global web traffic has fallen since March 2. The same report carries the other side: Temu has still posted single-digit to double-digit growth in the US since April, and some of the weakness may be plain e-commerce cooling 1. Sensor Tower data via Caixin points one way: monthly users fell 11% to 467 million in the June quarter, the platform's first big measured decline, with downloads down 48% 5.
The estimate ledger falls while the targets hold
Consensus for PDD's 2026 revenue has been cut 19% since March 2025, to about CN¥466 billion, and the stock never moved: $76.28 on 30 June, $77.50 on 29 September 1. Twenty-one of 38 analysts still lean buy against a street target near $114, betting on a 15% EPS rebound in Q4 1. Their September bar is CN¥116 billion in revenue, up 7%, with EPS down 11%, resting on merchant ad spend that grew just 3.5% last quarter 17. Q2 revenue missed consensus by about RMB4 billion, and hedge funds cut PDD holdings to 52 from 66 during the quarter 8.
PDD's growth collapsed from 119% and hasn't touched 20% since 2024
Data
| Revenue growth, YoY | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | 89.2% |
| Q4 '23 | 118.7% |
| Q1 '24 | 119.5% |
| Q2 '24 | 85.4% |
| Q3 '24 | 50.1% |
| Q4 '24 | 21.2% |
| Q1 '25 | 9.6% |
| Q2 '25 | 8.6% |
| Q3 '25 | 7.4% |
| Q4 '25 | 16.9% |
| Q1 '26 | 16.9% |
| Q2 '26 | 13.9% |
Net margin has come in below a year earlier for three straight quarters
- Operating margin
- Net margin
Data
| Operating margin | Net margin | |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | 24.2% | 22.6% |
| Q4 '23 | 25.2% | 26.2% |
| Q1 '24 | 29.9% | 32.3% |
| Q2 '24 | 33.6% | 33% |
| Q3 '24 | 24.5% | 25.1% |
| Q4 '24 | 23.1% | 24.8% |
| Q1 '25 | 16.8% | 15.4% |
| Q2 '25 | 24.8% | 29.6% |
| Q3 '25 | 23.1% | 27.1% |
| Q4 '25 | 21.1% | 18.6% |
| Q1 '26 | 18.4% | 11.8% |
| Q2 '26 | 24.7% | 24.2% |
The sides are set. Holders carry a one-week-notice print, last year's on 18 November, with the target near $114 against a $77.50 close 1; shorts and pair-traders get the only listed Temu proxy, Shein's filings.
The bull answer is a three-year promise plus a charm offensive
Management's reply is the "3-year initiative of building another PDD," while co-CEO Zhao Jiazhen concedes the first-party brand rollout has run "slower than expected" 6. In Europe, where Brussels fined Temu €200 million in May, the platform just added a geographical-indication channel for rightsholders after more than 100 trade-body meetings, and says it removes suspect listings proactively 331 times for every reactive takedown 510. The tell is ad growth: another quarter near 3.5%, and a ledger already cut 19% has further to fall 1.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
