Siebel moved 1.9 million C3.ai shares between his own vehicles the week traders bet on a squeeze
A Form 4 coded as gifts emptied two Siebel partnerships and an irrevocable children's trust into LLCs the C3.ai CEO manages, all exempt from short-swing rules. The same week, traders bought calls at 380% of normal volume on a stock analysts rate Reduce.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Eight gifts that were not gifts
On 2 October, lawyers for Thomas Siebel filed eight C3.ai transactions coded G, for gift: 428,128 shares, price $0, all dated 30 September 1. The filing services stamped it neutral 2. The footnotes show an estate being rebuilt in an afternoon.
What moved on 30 September
Footnote one has Siebel Asset Management L.P. and Siebel Asset Management III distributing every share they held, 170,294 and 72,695, pro rata to partners, exempt from short-swing matching under Rule 16a-13 1. Fifteen days earlier, both partnerships still stood on his Form 4 holding exactly those amounts 4. Four LLCs Siebel manages, RS, CS, TS and HS DE Investments, each took 106,793 Class B shares, each convertible into one Class A share 1. A further 1,237,115 shares left the Siebel 2011 Irrevocable Children's Trust for Siebel Legacy Investments II, an LLC Siebel manages 1.
Counted line by line, about 1.9 million shares changed vehicles in a day; his reported stake, roughly 12.3 million Class A-equivalent shares with 722,362 direct, did not shrink at all 1.
One living trust still holds three quarters of Siebel's 12.3 million shares
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Siebel Living Trust | 9.18M |
| Legacy I and II, HS ET DE | 1.33M |
| Direct holding | 0.72M |
| Four DE Investments LLCs | 0.57M |
| First Virtual Holdings | 0.51M |
Calls on one side, the ledger on the other
Friday's tape printed 196,362 calls bought, about 380% of the usual 40,951, on a stock that opened at $11.01 against an average analyst target of $8.70 and a Reduce consensus 3. The insider ledger runs the other way. On 15 and 16 September, Siebel exercised options struck at $3.90 and sold all 444,248 resulting shares at weighted averages of $10.90 and $10.54, roughly $4.8 million counted from the filing, under a 10b5-1 plan dated 20 September 2024 4. Roundups caught only the smaller leg 3. Insiders have sold 1,117,809 shares worth $11.7 million in ninety days 3.
The revenue underneath the bets
The quarter beneath the calls delivered $52.4 million of revenue and a $92.8 million GAAP net loss 5. Quarterly revenue has more than halved from the $108.7 million peak of the quarter ended 30 April 2025, and the last four reported quarters lost $446 million combined 6.
Quarterly revenue has more than halved since the April 2025 peak
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | $73.23M |
| Q4 '23 | $78.4M |
| Q1 '24 | $86.59M |
| Q2 '24 | $87.21M |
| Q3 '24 | $94.34M |
| Q4 '24 | $98.78M |
| Q1 '25 | $108.72M |
| Q2 '25 | $70.26M |
| Q3 '25 | $75.15M |
| Q4 '25 | $53.26M |
| Q1 '26 | $51.6M |
| Q2 '26 | $52.38M |
The bulls have a real case
The company counters with bookings up 73% quarter over quarter, free cash flow of positive $2.1 million, and $651.1 million of cash and securities, up $76 million in the quarter; Siebel calls the turnaround on track 5. Guidance still points down: $51 to $55 million for the current quarter against $75.2 million a year ago 56.
The tell is the next filing
Nothing in the 2 October form says the moved shares are queued for sale. It says who signs the sell ticket, and that shifted from trust terms to an LLC manager's pen. Watch the five new vehicles for a code S, and watch the December quarter for whether stabilization is real 15.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
