Singapore declines to prosecute Alice Huang, but Nvidia's $601 billion wipeout never touched estimates
Singapore declined to prosecute the woman at the center of Nvidia's espionage scandal even as the chipmaker lost a record $601 billion in a day and Wall Street downgraded seven times. Investors can underwrite contracts, not character, and the earnings math has not moved.
Vincent Jiangtwo-minute read
Singapore let the "spy" go, and the market did not
The jurisdiction that actually investigated Alice Huang declined to prosecute her. Singapore's Home Affairs Ministry said Thursday it found insufficient evidence of offenses, issued the former Megaspeed International CEO a stern warning for providing inaccurate information, and barred her from re-entering the country. Probes of Megaspeed and six individuals continue 1. That finding landed hours after Nvidia's−5.54% — Nvidia, down 5.54 percent today stock opened down as much as 14%, erasing $601 billion of value, the largest one-day wipeout ever recorded for a stock, after CEO Jensen Huang resigned over affairs with Alice Huang (no relation) and Nvidia executive Kimberly Powell 3.
Sellers priced treachery; estimates never moved
The sell-side verdict has been brutal: at least seven downgrades in a week, with Bernstein halving its target to $200 from $400, Evercore−0.03% — Evercore, down 0.03 percent today cutting to $186 from $465, and five-year credit default swaps more than tripling since mid-year to 1.445 points 45. But the earnings record did not change. Consensus still expects Nvidia's EPS to more than triple, from $4.77 in the year to January 2026 to $15.91 by January 2028, right where it stood in late October 5.
The multiple collapsed even as EPS estimates held
Nvidia trades at 13x forward earnings, a five-year low
Data
| Forward P/E | |
|---|---|
| Today | 13x |
| 3-year avg | 30x |
| 5-year avg | 36x |
At about 13x forward earnings against a 36x five-year average, the market is charging a security scandal at a company whose chips still sell out and which books no China data-center revenue in guidance 58.
Quarterly revenue has nearly quadrupled in two years, to $96.2 billion
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | $26.04B |
| Q2 '24 | $30.04B |
| Q3 '24 | $35.08B |
| Q4 '24 | $39.33B |
| Q1 '25 | $44.06B |
| Q2 '25 | $46.74B |
| Q3 '25 | $57.01B |
| Q4 '25 | $68.13B |
| Q1 '26 | $81.62B |
| Q2 '26 | $96.22B |
The money trail is real, the "spy" label is not proven
The verifiable receipts: Century Litong, tied to Alice Huang's family through her husband Kang Wei and sister Huang Yu, was named an Nvidia preferred cloud partner shortly after its 2023 founding, imported roughly 240,000 chips worth $7.5 billion, and her family-linked firms put $14 million into DeepSeek's round 2. Washington is treating it as espionage anyway: Moolenaar threatens a subpoena, an FBI probe is running, and Warren wants Commerce's Lutnick to explain delayed blacklisting 67.
Fade the panic, or short the suppliers, before Tuesday
Nvidia reports Tuesday with a $108 billion revenue guide 35. Investors can underwrite contracts, not character: the two trades are fade the panic on unchanged estimates, or stay short the supplier complex, Super Micro−10.94% — Super Micro, down 10.94 percent today and Dell down 10% and 7% Thursday, until the board's investigation and Moolenaar resolve 35. Deep dive in our Nov 12 board-meeting piece below 35.
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More about NVIDIA
NVDAFiscal Q2 2027Revenue rose 106% to $96.2B, 92.5% of it from Data Center, “driven by the ramp of our Blackwell Ultra infrastructure”. Gains on equity stakes of $7.8B lifted net income to $59.7B.
Show as a table
| Line | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $96.2B |
| Gross margin | 75.0% |
| Operating margin | 66.2% |
| Net income | $59.7B |
| Hyperscale | $48.7B |
| AI clouds & enterprise | $40.3B |
| Data Center | $89.0B |
| Edge Computing | $7.2B |
| Gross profit | $72.1B |
| Cost of revenue | $24.1B |
| Other income | $7.8B |
| Operating income | $63.7B |
| Operating expenses | $8.4B |
| Tax | $11.8B |
| R&D | $7.1B |
| SG&A | $1.4B |
