Sold out through 2026, IREN can name $14 billion of a $30 billion build

The deflating GPU-hour

IREN lost about 18% between its 22 September close and 1 October, last quoted at $40.80, and demand does not explain it: the company says 2026 capacity is largely sold out ¹. The price of the product does. Benzinga, alone in carrying the data, reports the Ornn H100 rental index fell 11.1% in seven days to $2.71 per GPU-hour↗ on 30 September, with Polymarket traders putting roughly 65% of the probability on year-end rates below $3 ¹.

$14 billion named against a $30 billion plan

Chief financial officer Anthony Lewis told the August earnings call↗ that fiscal 2027, the year to June 2027, carries $25 billion to $30 billion of capital expenditure, against about $14 billion of cash, committed GPU financing and customer prepayments, with roughly $8 billion more targeted ². The remainder, $3 billion at the low end of guidance and $8 billion at the top, is expected from data center financing, operating cash flow and other sources ¹.

The buildout sets its own cost of money

The missing billions meet the most expensive long-term money since 2002. The 10-year Treasury touched 5.34% on 1 October, its highest since April 2002↗, and Reuters ties the global bond rout partly to AI and data center construction lifting growth and rate expectations ³. The revenue meant to justify it is a company-defined number: $4 billion of contracted run-rate revenue, $1 billion of it operating on 26 August↗, against $707 million of fiscal 2026 GAAP revenue, only $128.8 million from AI cloud services ⁴. IREN warns recognized revenue may be materially lower ¹⁴.

Customers and lenders stand ahead of the equity

Contracts price above $20 million per megawatt of IT load over three years, live talks run near $25 million, and customers prepay 45% to 55% of GPU capex; a $2.4 billion facility backed by Blue Owl and PIMCO funds about 90% of its deployments' hardware ²⁵⁴. If contracted rates ever reprice toward a $2.71 spot hour, the lenders hold the GPUs and the customers hold the prepayments; the shareholder holds the construction schedule. Nscale's 18 September IPO filing↗, which set off the 25 September selloff in cloud names, draws the same map at sector scale: $103.4 billion of contracted commitments against $140.6 million of first-half revenue ⁶⁷.

The ramp is the ask. Capex ran $1.4 billion in the June quarter; the guidance implies about $6.9 billion a quarter, more than IREN spent in all of fiscal 2026 ⁸².

The bulls hold real tape

Three-year pricing is up about 125% since November, Microsoft accepted the first Horizon site in August, and 17 of 21 analysts rate the stock Buy or better ²⁵¹. B. Riley kept its Buy while cutting the target to $91 ⁷. The caution is new and specific: JonesTrading initiated at Hold on 28 September ⁷, and Benzinga alone carries Rothschild Redburn at Neutral, $40 target, citing customer credit quality ¹. A quarter of the float stood short at 31 August ⁹.

Watch the $8 billion

Every targeted facility that becomes committed arrives as an announcement; each one that does not leaves more of the plan exposed to a ten-year above 5%. The same question now prices every GPU landlord, Nebius and CoreWeave included, and the bitcoin-to-AI converts: Riot's $9.8 billion of contracted leases↗ are the quiet version of IREN's bet ¹⁰. Spot hours against renewal rates will say whether the sold-out sign was demand or leverage.