Squeezing China builds Huawei, ASML chief warns, while Europe buys zero
ASML's Christophe Fouquet has taken the China argument public: over-restriction "brings desperation," and desperation funds rivals. Shareholders hold the exposure, with China steered to about a fifth of record 2026 sales and the home continent buying nothing to replace it.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
The CEO takes the argument public
ASML's Christophe Fouquet has stopped leaving the China argument to ministers. "If you over-restrict, you bring desperation," he told the Financial Times, naming Huawei as a significant force in deep ultraviolet lithography, the tier Washington wants to ban outright 1. He concedes some technology must stay restricted for security reasons; his complaint is breadth 1. The moat he defends is real: an EUV machine carries more than 100,000 parts from roughly 2,000 suppliers, and capacity cannot be bought faster 1.
A fifth of a record year is exposed
The order book explains the bluntness. China was 33% of ASML's 2025 revenue and 36% in the fourth quarter alone, still 19% in the first quarter of 2026, then 14% in the second 794. Guidance for 2026 has been raised twice, to €43–45 billion; revenue has grown year on year for eight straight quarters; China is steered to about a fifth of it 6510. CFO Roger Dassen says the falling share tracks Dutch licensing, not demand 7.
China's share of ASML revenue fell from 36% to 14% in two quarters
Data
| China share of ASML revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | 36% |
| Q1 2026 | 19% |
| Q2 2026 | 14% |
A ban priced at 14–15% of revenue
The MATCH Act, cleared 44–0 in House committee, would add a servicing-license regime to a country-wide DUV sales ban; Bank of America prices the package at 14–15% of revenue and 16–17% of operating profit, against installed-base revenue of €2.76 billion last quarter 7. CXMT and YMTC have already stockpiled three years of DUV machines, pre-empting the sales ban 7.
The exposure is not hypothetical. Shares fell as much as 6.5% in Amsterdam in July when a report said a Shanghai company had begun mass-producing DUV tools 9. In January, ASML announced 1,700 job cuts on the day it posted better-than-expected results 2.
ASML revenue growth has stayed positive for eight straight quarters
Data
| Revenue vs a year earlier | |
|---|---|
| Q3 '23 | 22.9% |
| Q4 '23 | 17.5% |
| Q1 '24 | -21.6% |
| Q2 '24 | -11.5% |
| Q3 '24 | 16.9% |
| Q4 '24 | 20% |
| Q1 '25 | 46.3% |
| Q2 '25 | 33.2% |
| Q3 '25 | 6.6% |
| Q4 '25 | 18.5% |
| Q1 '26 | 19.8% |
| Q2 '26 | 18.5% |
Zero, at home
Nothing in Europe replaces it. Europe bought 0% of ASML's machines in each of the first two quarters of 2026, down from 5% in 2024 6. "We are not selling anything in Europe at all," says Frank Heemskerk, the company's public-affairs chief 2. Brussels's auditors project an 11.7% global share by 2030 against a 20% target 6. Prime Minister Rob Jetten has raised the controls in Washington without agreement 7.
Europe bought 0% of ASML's machines in Q2 2026
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| South Korea | 43% |
| Taiwan | 30% |
| China | 14% |
| United States | 9% |
| Japan | 4% |
| Europe | 0% |
Washington's counter-case
The other camp suspects the company. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick pressed ASML on whether an EUV machine reached China; ASML's rebuttal counts 314 EUV systems in use worldwide, none in China 8. Officials question the company's good faith without public documents 8.
The rival, today, is small. Yuliangsheng, the Shanghai scanner maker, targets 12 DUV tools this year, built on German Zeiss glass, at what UBS rates as ASML's 2004 level 7. DIGITIMES reports Beijing is rethinking the EUV race around the light source itself 3. Fouquet's desperation thesis is a forecast, not a filing.
What to watch
The Senate markup, the 13 October results, and whether Europe ever orders a leading-edge tool 76. Washington is legislating away ASML's China market; Europe never built one to lose.
How this brief was made
01Gathered & sourced224 channels · 1,458 articles▾
Agents swept 224 channels and ingested 1,458 articles, then de-duplicated and ranked them for signal.
02Verified & cross-validated11 claims · 10 data feeds▾
Every one of 11 load-bearing claims was checked against primary sources, with 10 live data feeds reconciling the figures and charts.
- 1Benzinga, "ASML Warns Trump on China Chip Restrictions," 26 September 2026
- 2The Times of India, "Europe's biggest chip company has zero customers at home," 29 September 2026
- 3DIGITIMES, "Beyond ASML: China rethinks EUV race with light-source strategy," 28 September 2026
- 4CNBC, "China's reported chip breakthrough comes with some big caveats," 28 July 2026
- 5DutchNews.nl, "ASML raises 2026 sales forecast again on booming AI chip demand," 15 July 2026
- 6Tech Times, "ASML sold nothing in Europe in 2026: Chip-tool demand gap exposes EU supply-only strategy," 25 September 2026
- 7Tech Times, "China memory giants stockpiled ASML scanners: Servicing ban is only lever left," 9 September 2026
- 8TechSpot, "The Trump administration suspects an ASML chipmaking machine made it into China. ASML says that's impossible," 19 June 2026
- 9The Next Web, "ASML shares fell 6.5% after a report that China has started mass-producing DUV lithography tools," 27 July 2026
- 10Sharadar quarterly fundamentals from ASML's SEC filings, retrieved 30 September 2026
- 11Sharadar quarterly fundamentals, from ASML's SEC filings, retrieved 30 September 2026
03Reviewed & edited1 human editor▾
One editor read the draft against the evidence, tuned the framing, and signed off before it shipped.
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