Tempus AI tops 80% sensitivity on 12 lung biomarkers but withholds the specificity number
An AI panel reading routine lung slides flagged all 12 NSCLC biomarkers above 80% sensitivity across 60,459 cases. The number Tempus withheld, specificity, decides whether the flag trims lab workload or sells more of its own tests, and it lands six days before the Q3 print.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
Tempus AI+1.72% — Tempus AI, up 1.72 percent today, the Nasdaq-listed Chicago precision-medicine company, said on October 19 that an AI panel reading routine H&E slides, the purple-and-pink stain every lung tumor already gets, topped 80% sensitivity for all 12 biomarkers it assessed in advanced non-small cell lung cancer, above 90% for several it did not name, across 60,459 cases from 56,969 patients 1. The study ran through Tempus's collaboration with the drugmaker Pfizer−0.93% — Pfizer, down 0.93 percent today and reaches the European Society for Medical Oncology congress in Madrid as poster 320P on October 25 12.
Where the flag lands is cash. Tempus diagnostics revenue was $289.3 million in the June quarter, up 20%, oncology test volume grew 31%, and management lifted 2026 revenue guidance to $1.595–1.605 billion 3. The stock already trades on test economics: Morgan Stanley+3.38% — Morgan Stanley, up 3.38 percent today reimbursement commentary lifted shares about 30% in one September week on $330–400 million of expected pricing gains 4.
The half of the scorecard Tempus left out
The release names none of the 12 biomarkers and gives no specificity, no predictive values, no AUC 12. Sensitivity says what the AI catches; specificity says who pays for the net. Tempus states the design goal in its own words: to "increase the number of patients who receive appropriate biomarker testing" 1. The confirmatory test is what Tempus sells, through Paige Predict, which came with an $81.25 million acquisition that closed on August 22, 2025, and Tempus Preview, which returns predictions about 24 hours after a sample arrives 12.
Revenue has grown more than 20% year over year for ten straight quarters
Data
| Revenue | |
|---|---|
| Q1 '24 | $145.82 |
| Q2 '24 | $165.97 |
| Q3 '24 | $180.93 |
| Q4 '24 | $200.68 |
| Q1 '25 | $255.74 |
| Q2 '25 | $314.64 |
| Q3 '25 | $334.21 |
| Q4 '25 | $367.21 |
| Q1 '26 | $348.12 |
| Q2 '26 | $382.49 |
Revenue has grown more than 20% year over year for ten straight quarters, to $382.5 million in the June quarter from $145.8 million in early 2024, and the first positive GAAP net income, $5.6 million, arrived only last quarter, after a $245 million loss in 2025 536. The library was bought: Ambry for $600 million, Paige, and now Personalis, pending at about $1.5 billion since July 63.
The fair case, and the same-day rival
Tempus's own case is reasonable: the panel "remains in development," is "not intended to replace established molecular or immunohistochemistry testing," and targets a real bottleneck, biopsies too small for full sequencing 1. Competition is live regardless. Imagene AI of Tel Aviv and Mindpeak of Hamburg announced their own H&E lung panel the same Monday, research use only, covering eight named alterations including EGFR and ALK, and they will be in Madrid too; Imagene's earlier lung panel already carries a CMS payment code 72.
Madrid answers Sunday, the cash answers on November 2
Poster 320P goes up on October 25, and its specificity and per-marker figures decide whether the flag trims the sequencing queue or grows it 2. Six days later, before the open on November 2, Tempus reports third-quarter results 1. The half-metric cost nothing to publish; the other half has a date.
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