WiseTech bought 79% growth with the $2.1 billion e2open deal; now it must earn 6 to 10%

The record year nobody paid up for

WiseTech closed at A$31.90 on October 6, down 62.84 percent over a year ¹. The market's verdict arrived on August 26, when the company reported the biggest revenue year in its history and the shares fell 10.1 percent, the day's largest drag on the ASX 200↗ ². FY26 revenue rose 79 percent to US$1.396 billion while statutory net profit fell 11 percent to US$178.7 million, short of the US$181.9 million analysts expected ²³.

The wedge is e2open, bought for US$2.1 billion and completed weeks before the financial year began; it contributed US$541.2 million of revenue in its first year in the group ²³. Nearly four in every ten dollars of the record year came from the acquired business, while CargoWise, the franchise the whole case rests on, grew 11 percent to US$756.9 million ⁴.

The guide hides a twelfth month

FY27 guidance is US$1.48 to 1.54 billion of revenue, growth of 6 to 10 percent↗, on underlying EBITDA of US$725 to 780 million at a 49 to 51 percent margin, up from 46 percent on US$644.5 million in FY26 ¹²³. Exclude e2open and FY26 revenue still grew 10 percent; the top of the FY27 guide merely matches it ³.

The arithmetic underneath is unforgiving. e2open's US$541.2 million runs near US$49 million a month across the roughly eleven months it was consolidated, so a twelfth month adds about 3.5 points of growth before any new contract is signed ²³. If the acquired business merely runs flat, that leaves about 2.5 to 6.5 points for WiseTech itself to earn, priced at 41.7 times trailing earnings against an industry average of 34.45 ¹⁵.

The balance sheet carries the deal as well. On Datt Capital's count, US$2.4 billion of debt was drawn to fund e2open ²; total debt-to-equity stands at 115.29 percent against an industry 25.11 ⁵, and net leverage of 2.7 times is targeted to reach 2.2 by end FY27 ⁶.

The sellers include the index itself

September's rebalance dropped WiseTech from the S&P/ASX 50↗ ⁷. On September 29, Codan, a military-radio and gold-detector maker, closed at A$64.43, worth A$11.7 billion, and took the title of Australia's largest technology company; WiseTech stands near A$10.9 billion ⁸⁹. State Street's funds have also cut their substantial holding in the company to 6.07 percent ¹⁰.

The trading account @pastperformerAU, noting the stock has already left the ASX 20 as well as the ASX 50, says short interest is accelerating and reads the market as pricing structurally lower organic growth ¹¹. ASIC's weekly short-position report does not confirm it: the tenth most shorted ASX stock sits at 10.9 percent↗, and WiseTech is nowhere on the list ¹². The selling the record confirms is index-driven, not short-driven.

Four Buys against the tape

Four houses rate the stock Buy↗, from Citi's A$58.75 to Morgan Stanley's A$70, with Bell Potter at A$65 after cutting from A$71.75 and Morgans at A$62.50; Jefferies and JPMorgan say Hold at A$45 and A$40 ¹¹³. Even the cheapest Hold target sits about 25 percent above the price ¹.

Datt Capital's managing director calls the FY27 range conservative, pointing to a record of beating the company's own guidance ². Citi keeps its Buy but warns consensus could drift to the low end of CargoWise growth, citing customer conversions, AI monetization and price-increase timing, with clear acceleration unlikely before the second half ².

Two dates that decide it

Clippership, the legacy shipping platform, is switched off at the end of this calendar year↗, its users steered toward WiseTech's Transtream; a forced migration is a churn test this guidance did not need ¹⁴. The AGM falls on November 27 ¹. Between them sits the only number that matters: whether the two and a half to six and a half points the guide leaves to earn actually arrive.