Zevenbergen cut its nLight stake 72.9% while insiders sold $72.8 million; the street's target is $86.50

The first Q3 print is a 72.9% exit by a growth house

Zevenbergen Capital Investments, the Edmonds, Washington adviser founded in 1987↗ that runs high-growth technology strategies and now manages ETFs for Virtus↗, sold 244,974 nLight shares▼−1.31% — nLight shares, down 1.31 percent today in the third quarter and kept 91,061, about $3.55 million, or 0.16% of the company ¹³⁴. The 13F surfaced on October 8, 2026↗, the day the stock fell 3.9% to $38.31 ¹². The other third-quarter filings listed so far show two small buyers adding shares; Zevenbergen's cut is the only reduction among them ¹.

Insiders moved $72.8 million, every trade a sale

Company insiders sold 616,697 shares for $27.0 million over three months, and $72.8 million over twelve months with no purchases on record, roughly 3.3% of the $2.21 billion market value ¹². Two caveats belong in print: chief accounting officer James Nias's 1,025-share sale on September 3, 2026, covered tax withholding on vesting awards, and director Geoffrey Moore's 4,452-share sale on September 15, 2026, ran under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan ¹. The signal is the aggregate: twelve months of selling and not one buy ².

The street pays $86.50 for $44 million of booked contract

Northcoast Research set a $75 Buy target on October 7, 2026, and twelve analysts average a Moderate Buy at $86.50 against the $38.31 close ¹. Their asset is the Joint Laser Weapon System award announced on July 9, 2026↗: $44 million booked against a ceiling of up to $627 million, half of a Pentagon pair with Lockheed Martin worth up to $847 million in total ⁵⁶. Shares jumped about 30% on the announcement↗; the stock's twelve-month range now runs $28.05 to $86.95 ¹⁶.

The business underneath is genuinely growing: revenue rose in five of the past six quarters, from $51.7 million in Q1 2025 to a record $82.6 million in Q2 2026, and Q2 EPS of $0.15 beat by a cent ¹⁷. Aerospace and defense revenue jumped 68% year over year↗ to $55.1 million in Q1 2026 ⁸. GuruFocus still models the stock at $15.79 against 60.8x forward earnings, calling it unprofitable and cash-flow negative ².

Q3 earnings will price the $583 million question

Both camps trade the same number: $583 million of unbooked ceiling sitting on top of the $44 million awarded ⁵. The consensus target needs those options converting into orders; the sellers have priced the chance they never do ². On the three-month numbers, insider sales averaged roughly $44 a share on the way out, about half the $86.50 the street expects ¹.

On that record the trade is to avoid or fade LASR into the Q3 print rather than pay consensus math for unbooked ceiling. The quarter is already guided softer: Seeking Alpha's news page carries the company's forecast of $63–73 million in Q3 revenue↗, with $17 million of shipments shifting on China-linked supply delays ⁶. Two prints decide it: the Q3 report, where JLWS conversion has to show up in backlog, and the remaining 13Fs, which will show whether Zevenbergen was early or alone.