A no-name Wyoming fund grabs 3% of Technoprobe off-market at the top of a 204% rally
A Consob filing shows a Wyoming-addressed private fund crossing 3.18% of Technoprobe through off-market blocks worth about €1.3 billion, days after Teradyne's CEO left the board and the same morning JPMorgan set a €45 target.
Vincent Jiang · 3 min read
A billion-euro block that never touched the tape
On October 6, someone crossed 3% of Technoprobe without printing a single order on Borsa Italiana. The Consob Form 120 shows Geoffrey Duff Baldwin over the voting-rights threshold at 3.18%, holding 35.37 million shares acquired off-market 1. The stock stood at €37.16 that morning, up 204.43% since January 1.
Most of the block sits in the fund's name
Count it at the filing-day price: 35.37 million shares at €37.16 is roughly €1.3 billion 1. Only 54,000 of those shares sit in Baldwin's own name; 35.31 million run through Vector Line Capital Fund II, LP 1. Nine analysts already had the stock at BUY with an average target of €42.11 1.
The buyer is a Form D in Jackson, Wyoming
Vector Line Fund II is incorporated in Delaware, keeps an address on Water Cress Lane in Jackson, Wyoming, and has exactly two SEC filings: a Form D notice of exempt offering from May 15, 2026, and an amendment dated September 17 2. Three weeks after that amendment, it owned a billion-euro block of the AI-test stock that has tripled this year.
The timing has an edge to it. On September 29, Greg Smith, president and CEO of Teradyne since 2023, resigned his Technoprobe board seat for personal reasons, staying only until a replacement is named; he was a non-independent director holding no shares 34. Teradyne took its 10% stake as part of the 2023 agreements that transferred its device-interface business to Technoprobe 5. The Form 120 says who bought. It does not say who sold.
What JPMorgan says the new money owns
The same morning, JPMorgan's Craig McDowell initiated at Overweight with a €45 target, built on 28 times estimated 2028 EBIT 67. Underneath it: revenue from €628 million in 2025 to €1.66 billion in 2027, adjusted EBIT from €136 million to €810 million, a claimed 60% share of vertical MEMS test, and capacity for a €1.6 billion annual run-rate by the end of Q1 2027 7.
JPMorgan's €45 rests on EBIT rising sixfold in two years
- Revenue
- Adjusted EBIT
- Estimate
Data
| Revenue | Adjusted EBIT | |
|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | €628m | €136m |
| FY2026 est. (estimate) | €1,090m | €449m |
| FY2027 est. (estimate) | €1,660m | €810m |
The edge is in the estimates, not the price
JPMorgan concedes the multiple is a premium to semiconductor-capital-equipment peers, justified only if that growth and margin hold 7. Consensus stood at BUY before the note arrived 1, so the edge is in estimates landing, not in the price. And nothing filed anywhere shows Teradyne selling a share; the exit from the boardroom is officially personal 3.
The rally has already eaten most of the street's upside
- Estimate
Data
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Price, October 6 | €37.16 |
| Average target, 9 analysts (estimate) | €42.11 |
| JPMorgan target (estimate) | €45.00 |
November 10 settles it
Technoprobe prints Q3 on November 10, the first report the new block trades against 1. Watch two doors: whether Vector Line files again on the way to 5%, and who Teradyne sends to fill the chair Smith left 3. The blocks were filled at the top of a 204% run. Now somebody has to deliver the quarter.
Deepdive
AI-generated from this story and its cited sources. Not investment advice.
